How People Use Rich Pictures to Help Them Think and Act

Groups of all kinds are complex organisations. To understand them and to facilitate them in process terms is a matter of rich and diverse discourse in varied fields from sustainable development to coastal ecology; from bandwidth in rural communities to health service provision. How to allow groups to discourse, problem solve and review their own issues and concerns? Diagrams in general and rich pictures in particular can be great means to allow groups to explore their subconscious, their occult sentiments and conflicted understandings. This paper explores and explains diverse use of pictures and shows how they can be applied and understood in group processes of all kinds.     

Incubation periods for paediatric AIDS patients

A recent seroprevalence study of newborns indicates that one in 62 children born in New York City has antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The distribution of incubation periods for paediatric patients is needed to estimate future AIDS case loads from these seroprevalence data. Current estimates of incubation periods for paediatric patients are based on limited data. We use parametric and non-parametric methods to analyse incubation periods for 215 paediatric patients with AIDS whose only known route of infection is maternal. We conclude that incubation periods are longer than previously reported; that there is a distinct knee in the incubation period distribution at seven months which suggests two risk populations; and that there is an increase in incidence which is consistent with exponential growth.     

Integration of telomere sequences with the draft human genome sequence

Telomeres are the ends of linear eukaryotic chromosomes. To ensure that no large stretches of uncharacterized DNA remain between the ends of the human working draft sequence and the ends of each chromosome, we would need to connect the sequences of the telomeres to the working draft sequence. But telomeres have an unusual DNA sequence composition and organization that makes them particularly difficult to isolate and analyse. Here we use specialized linear yeast artificial chromosome clones, each carrying a large telomere-terminal fragment of human DNA, to integrate most human telomeres with the working draft sequence. Subtelomeric sequence structure appears to vary widely, mainly as a result of large differences in subtelomeric repeat sequence abundance and organization at individual telomeres. Many subtelomeric regions appear to be gene-rich, matching both known and unknown expressed genes. This indicates that human subtelomeric regions are not simply buffers of nonfunctional 'junk DNA' next to the molecular telomere, but are instead functional parts of the expressed genome.     

Malaria early warnings based on seasonal climate forecasts from multi-model ensembles

The control of epidemic malaria is a priority for the international health community and specific targets for the early detection and effective control of epidemics have been agreed. Interannual climate variability is an important determinant of epidemics in parts of Africa where climate drives both mosquito vector dynamics and parasite development rates. Hence, skilful seasonal climate forecasts may provide early warning of changes of risk in epidemic-prone regions. Here we discuss the development of a system to forecast probabilities of anomalously high and low malaria incidence with dynamically based, seasonal-timescale, multi-model ensemble predictions of climate, using leading global coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models developed in Europe. This forecast system is successfully applied to the prediction of malaria risk in Botswana, where links between malaria and climate variability are well established, adding up to four months lead time over malaria warnings issued with observed precipitation and having a comparably high level of probabilistic prediction skill. In years in which the forecast probability distribution is different from that of climatology, malaria decision-makers can use this information for improved resource allocation.     

Triple Task Method: Systemic, Reflective Action Research

This brief article introduces a new methodology for systemic action research—Triple Task (TT)—and sets out its rationale and initial progress in becoming an embedded method for group working. Arising from the authors previous work with soft systems approaches, the Imagine method for sustainable development assessment and action research in a variety of global locations, TT provides a means for groups to engage together in purposive work and, at the same time, for facilitators to understand how the dynamic of the group influences the groups output. TT is based on an ambitious concept and at the time of writing the results of TT applied in the context of an EU Framework 7 funded project are in their early stages but importantly, significant insights are already arising including the answers to some puzzling questions:

• Do purposeful groups always produce the most insightful outcomes?
• Do conflictual groups produce incoherent results?
• What makes a ‘good’ group?

     

Smart Cities and M<Superscript>3</Superscript>: Rapid Research,Meaningful Metrics and Co-Design

The research described in this paper is undertaken under the banner of the smart city, a concept that captures the way urban spaces are re-made by the incursion of new technology. Much of smart is centred on converting everyday activities into data, and using this data to generate knowledge mediated by technology. Ordinary citizens, those that may have their lives impacted by the technology, usually are not properly involved in the ‘smartification’ process. Their perceptions, concerns and expectations should inform the conception and development of smart technologies at the same extent. How to engage general public with smart cities research is the central challenge for the Making Metrics Meaningful (MMM) project. Applying a rapid participatory method, ‘Imagine’ over a five-month period (March – July) the research sought to gain insights from the general public into novel forms of information system innovation. This brief paper describes the nature of the accelerated research undertaken and explores some of the themes which emerged in the analysis. Generic themes, beyond the remit of an explicit transport focus, are developed and pointers towards further research directions are discussed. Participatory methods, including engaging with self-selected transport users actively through both picture creation and programmatically specific musical ‘signatures’ as well as group discussion, were found to be effective in eliciting users’ own concerns, needs and ideas for novel information systems.