Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.     

Voices from within: gut microbes and the CNS

Recent advances in research have greatly increased our understanding of the importance of the gut microbiota. Bacterial colonization of the intestine is critical to the normal development of many aspects of physiology such as the immune and endocrine systems. It is emerging that the influence of the gut microbiota also extends to modulation of host neural development. Furthermore, the overall balance in composition of the microbiota, together with the influence of pivotal species that induce specific responses, can modulate adult neural function, peripherally and centrally. Effects of commensal gut bacteria in adult animals include protection from the central effects of infection and inflammation as well as modulation of normal behavioral responses. There is now robust evidence that gut bacteria influence the enteric nervous system, an effect that may contribute to afferent signaling to the brain. The vagus nerve has also emerged as an important means of communicating signals from gut bacteria to the CNS. Further understanding of the mechanisms underlying microbiome–gut–brain communication will provide us with new insight into the symbiotic relationship between gut microbiota and their mammalian hosts and help us identify the potential for microbial-based therapeutic strategies to aid in the treatment of mood disorders.     

Transposition of maize Ac/Ds transposable elements in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Excision by transposons is associated with chromosome breaks; generally, host-cell proteins repair this damage, often introducing mutations. Many transposons also use host proteins in the transposition mechanism or in regulation. Transposition in systems lacking host factors that influence the behaviour of these transpositions is useful in determining what those factors are and how they work. In addition, features of transposition and regulation intrinsic to the element itself can be determined. Maize Activator/Dissociation (Ac/Ds) elements transpose in a wide variety of heterologous plants, but their characteristics in these other systems differ from those in maize, including their response to increasing genetic dosage and the types of repair products recovered following excision. Two Arabidopsis thaliana mutants (iae1 and iae2) show increased Ac transposition frequencies. These mutants, and the differences mentioned above, suggest the involvement of host proteins in Ac/Ds activity and potential differences between these proteins among plant species. Here we report that Ac/Ds elements, members of the hAT (hobo, Ac, Tam3) superfamily, transpose in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, an organism lacking class II ('cut and paste') transposons. This demonstrates that plant-specific proteins are not essential for Ac/Ds transposition. The yeast system is valuable for dissecting the Ac/Ds transposition mechanism and identifying host factors that can influence transposition and the repair of DNA damage induced by Ac/Ds. Mutations caused by Ds excision in yeast suggest formation of a DNA-hairpin intermediate, and reinsertions occur throughout the genome with a frequency similar to that in plants. The high proportion of Ac/Ds reinsertions also makes this system an in vivo mutagenesis and reverse genetics tool in yeast and, presumably, other eukaryotic systems.     

Zur Bestimmung der Saccharaseaktivität in Bodenproben

Summary A method, qualified for determination of saccharase activity in soil samples, is described.     

Die Identifizierung von Ligninspaltstücken anhand von Papier- und Dünnschichtchromatographie

Summary Nine phenolic compounds can be found after decomposition of lignin. Their behaviour to paper-and thin-layer chromatography, colour-reactions, fluorescence in ultraviolet-light of different wave-lengths as well as ultraviolet-absorption-spectra have been examined. The Rf-values result from the quotient.     

Crystal structure of the FimD usher bound to its cognate FimC-FimH substrate

Type 1 pili are the archetypal representative of a widespread class of adhesive multisubunit fibres in Gram-negative bacteria. During pilus assembly, subunits dock as chaperone-bound complexes to an usher, which catalyses their polymerization and mediates pilus translocation across the outer membrane. Here we report the crystal structure of the full-length FimD usher bound to the FimC-FimH chaperone-adhesin complex and that of the unbound form of the FimD translocation domain. The FimD-FimC-FimH structure shows FimH inserted inside the FimD 24-stranded β-barrel translocation channel. FimC-FimH is held in place through interactions with the two carboxy-terminal periplasmic domains of FimD, a binding mode confirmed in solution by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy. To accommodate FimH, the usher plug domain is displaced from the barrel lumen to the periplasm, concomitant with a marked conformational change in the β-barrel. The amino-terminal domain of FimD is observed in an ideal position to catalyse incorporation of a newly recruited chaperone-subunit complex. The FimD-FimC-FimH structure provides unique insights into the pilus subunit incorporation cycle, and captures the first view of a protein transporter in the act of secreting its cognate substrate.     

Zur Bestimmung der Katalaseaktivität in Bodenproben

Summary Two methods for the determination of catalase activity in soil samples are described.     

The agonist effect of dihydropyridines on Ca channels

Dihydropyridines (DHP) have great potential for clinical use because of their inotropic and vasomotor effects. The mechanism of action is unknown although Ca currents have been implicated. Here we report measurements of single channel and whole cell cardiac Ca currents after application of two DHP agonists BAY K 8644 and CGP 28 392. Whole cell Ca currents from individual myocytes were increased and the 50% effective doses (ED50) were similar to those reported for contractility in rabbit aorta and guinea pig heart and catecholamine release from cat adrenal glands. The measured ED50 was also consistent with the apparent dissociation constant (Kd) of a high affinity binding site present in cardiac sarcolemmal vesicles. We propose that the molecular basis for these results is an increase in the probability that a single Ca channel, having opened and closed, will subsequently re-open during membrane depolarization. At high concentrations of BAY K 8644 and in the presence of 96 mM Ba, different effects are observed, primarily a marked prologation of open time.     

Filtered Backprojection Reconstruction with Depth-Dependent Filtering

A direct filtered-backprojection(FBP) reconstruction algorithm is presented for circular cone-beam computed tomography(CB-CT) that allows the filter operation to be applied efficiently with shift-variant band-pass characteristics on the kernel function.Our algorithm is derived from the ramp-filter based FBP method of Feldkamp et al.and obtained by decomposing the ramp filtering into a convolution involving the Hilbert kernel(global operation) and a subsequent differentiation operation(local operation).The d...     

The lipid content of musculature and of tissue preparations with enriched plasma membranes in Paramyotonia congenita

Zusammenfassung In einer Biopsieprobe menschlicher Muskulatur bei Paramyotonia congenita wurden Neutrallipide und Phosphatide im Gesamtmuskel und in Präparationen mit angereicherten Plasmamembranen bestimmt und mit den entsprechenden Werten in normaler Muskulatur verglichen. Dabei findet sich eine Erhöhung der freien Fettsäuren in den Plasmamembranen bei Paramyotonie.