Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Long-term increases in clutch size in common snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) and diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

Clutch size (CS) is a well-studied life history characteristic, and optimal egg size theory predicts that CS should correlate positively with reproductive investment. Turtles are good subjects for studies of reproductive strategies because few turtle species exhibit parental care; therefore quantifying their short-term reproductive investment is mostly limited to measuring egg size and number. Clutch size is usually reported as an average value for each turtle population, and where CS variation is noted, it is usually attributable to variation in adult body size. In two long-term studies of ecologically dissimilar species we detected a dramatic increase in CS in a common snapping turtle (Chelydra serpentina) population and in a diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) population. It is unknown whether these changes are due to either variation in adult body size or resource availability; but the temporal patterns we observed have apparently never been reported previously. These trends remain unexplained and should be explored further.     

矿井索车的优化设计

对矿井索车优化设计中的几个关键性问题进行了探讨，包括驱动轮和尾轮的设计、钢丝绳直径的选择计算、托绳轮间距的确定、绳卡的设计、张紧力和张紧行程的确定、互锁问题的解决等。     

西文期刊回溯建库中几个重要项目的著录

在实践的基础上，从期刊的出版日期、出版周期、卷、期、年、月及其他标识、ISSN、增刊、出版者以及期刊的历史发展等方面对西文期刊机读目录的标准化著录问题进行了探讨。     

关于21世纪图书馆员继续教育问题的思考

论述了21世纪对图书馆员进行继续教育的必要性，介绍了图书馆员继续教育的内容，针对我国图书馆员继续教育的状况，提出了应采取加大投入、进行针对性培训、运用激励机制等措施来加强对图书馆员的继续教育。     

The Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome protein mediates translational activation of ribosomes in yeast

The autosomal recessive disorder Shwachman-Diamond syndrome, characterized by bone marrow failure and leukemia predisposition, is caused by deficiency of the highly conserved Shwachman-Bodian-Diamond syndrome (SBDS) protein. Here, we identify the function of the yeast SBDS ortholog Sdo1, showing that it is critical for the release and recycling of the nucleolar shuttling factor Tif6 from pre-60S ribosomes, a key step in 60S maturation and translational activation of ribosomes. Using genome-wide synthetic genetic array mapping, we identified multiple TIF6 gain-of-function alleles that suppressed the pre-60S nuclear export defects and cytoplasmic mislocalization of Tif6 observed in sdo1Delta cells. Sdo1 appears to function within a pathway containing elongation factor-like 1, and together they control translational activation of ribosomes. Thus, our data link defective late 60S ribosomal subunit maturation to an inherited bone marrow failure syndrome associated with leukemia predisposition.