Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

关于Sauer引理的一个推广

Sauer引理是统计学习理论中的基本结论．在许多实际问题中，需要研究N类模式识别问题．本文将Sauer引理推广到N类分类问题．     

乙醇三维内微肋热管的传热性能

采用实验研究的方法对三维内微肋热管的强化传热特性进行研究，首次报道了以乙醇为工质的三维内微肋热管的传热性能。在实验范围内，与光管相比，竖直放置时，沸腾换热系数可以提高98％—190％，凝结换热系数可以提高76％—178％。三维内微肋结构能够同时明显地强化热管的沸腾换热与凝结换热，可以有效地减小热管的内热阻。     

蕴涵环交换性的某些多项恒等式

设ｍ＞１，ｎ，ｐ，ｑ，ｒ，ｓ均为正整数，Ｒ是一个具有单位元１的环．证明了：如果Ｒ中的任意ｘ，ｙ满足且Ｒ具有Ｑ（ｍ）性质，则Ｒ是一个交换环．此外，在适当的条件下确立了Ｒ的交换性．     

The role of dyking and fault control in the rapid onset of eruption at Chaitén volcano, Chile

Rhyolite is the most viscous of liquid magmas, so it was surprising that on 2?May 2008 at Chaitén Volcano, located in Chile's southern Andean volcanic zone, rhyolitic magma migrated from more than 5?km depth in less than 4?hours (ref.?1) and erupted explosively with only two days of detected precursory seismic activity. The last major rhyolite eruption before that at Chaitén was the largest volcanic eruption in the twentieth century, at Novarupta volcano, Alaska, in 1912. Because of the historically rare and explosive nature of rhyolite eruptions and because of the surprisingly short warning before the eruption of the Chaitén volcano, any information about the workings of the magmatic system at Chaitén, and rhyolitic systems in general, is important from both the scientific and hazard perspectives. Here we present surface deformation data related to the Chaitén eruption based on radar interferometry observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) DAICHI (ALOS) satellite. The data on this explosive rhyolite eruption indicate that the rapid ascent of rhyolite occurred through dyking and that melt segregation and magma storage were controlled by existing faults.