Forecasting Death Rates Using Exogenous Determinants

Mortality models used for forecasting are predominantly based on the statistical properties of time series and do not generally incorporate an understanding of the forces driving secular trends. This paper addresses three research questions: Can the factors found in stochastic mortality‐forecasting models be associated with real‐world trends in health‐related variables? Does inclusion of health‐related factors in models improve forecasts? Do resulting models give better forecasts than existing stochastic mortality models? We consider whether the space spanned by the latent factor structure in mortality data can be adequately described by developments in gross domestic product, health expenditure and lifestyle‐related risk factors using statistical techniques developed in macroeconomics and finance. These covariates are then shown to improve forecasts when incorporated into a Bayesian hierarchical model. Results are comparable or better than benchmark stochastic mortality models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Empirical factors and structure transference: Returning to the London account

We offer a framework to represent the roles of empirical and theoretical factors in theory construction, and examine a case study to illustrate how the framework can be used to illuminate central features of scientific reasoning. The case study provides an extension of French and Ladyman's (1997) analysis of Fritz and Heinz London's model of superconductivity to accommodate the role of the analogy between superconductivity and diamagnetic phenomena in the development of the model between 1935 and 1937. We focus on this case since it allows us to separate the roles of empirical and theoretical factors, and so provides an example of the utility of the approach that we have adopted. We conclude the paper by drawing on the particular framework here developed to address a range of concerns.     

Unitary inequivalence as a problem for structural realism

The existence of unitarily inequivalent representations in quantum field theory has been presented as a serious problem for structural realism. In this paper I explore two possible responses. The first involves adopting Wallace's ‘naïve Lagrangian’ interpretation of QFT and dismissing the generation of inequivalent representations as either a mathematical artefact or as non-pathological. The second takes up Ruetsche's ‘Swiss Army Knife’ approach and understands the relevant structure as spanning a range of possibilities. Both options present interesting implications for structural realism and I shall also consider related issues to do with underdetermination, the significance of spontaneous symmetry breaking and how we should understand superselection rules in the context of quantum statistics. Finally, I shall suggest a way in which these options might be combined.     

Storage of purified plant viruses in the unfrozen state free of microbial contamination

Résumé On décrit une méthode d'accumulation des virus végétaux. Elle ne comprend pas la congélation ou la conservation chimique. La contamination microbienne est évitée par filtration á travers un microfiltre aseptique placé dans un réservoir également aseptique.     

The DNA sequence and analysis of human chromosome 13

Chromosome 13 is the largest acrocentric human chromosome. It carries genes involved in cancer including the breast cancer type 2 (BRCA2) and retinoblastoma (RB1) genes, is frequently rearranged in B-cell chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, and contains the DAOA locus associated with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia. We describe completion and analysis of 95.5 megabases (Mb) of sequence from chromosome 13, which contains 633 genes and 296 pseudogenes. We estimate that more than 95.4% of the protein-coding genes of this chromosome have been identified, on the basis of comparison with other vertebrate genome sequences. Additionally, 105 putative non-coding RNA genes were found. Chromosome 13 has one of the lowest gene densities (6.5 genes per Mb) among human chromosomes, and contains a central region of 38 Mb where the gene density drops to only 3.1 genes per Mb.     

Differential activation of the inflammasome by caspase-1 adaptors ASC and Ipaf

Specific adaptors regulate the activation of initiator caspases; for example, FADD and Apaf-1 engage caspases 8 and 9, respectively. The adaptors ASC, Ipaf and RIP2 have each been proposed to regulate caspase-1 (also called interleukin (IL)-1 converting enzyme), which is activated within the 'inflammasome', a complex comprising several adaptors. Here we show the impact of ASC-, Ipaf- or RIP2-deficiency on inflammasome function. ASC was essential for extracellular ATP-driven activation of caspase-1 in toll-like receptor (TLR)-stimulated macrophages. Accordingly, ASC-deficient macrophages exhibited defective maturation of IL-1beta and IL-18, and ASC-null mice were resistant to lipopolysaccharide-induced endotoxic shock. Furthermore, activation of caspase-1 in response to an intracellular pathogen (Salmonella typhimurium) was abrogated severely in ASC-null macrophages. Unexpectedly, Ipaf-deficient macrophages activated caspase-1 in response to TLR plus ATP stimulation but not S. typhimurium. Caspase-1 activation was not compromised by loss of RIP2. These data show that whereas ASC is key to caspase-1 activation within the inflammasome, Ipaf provides a special conduit to the inflammasome for signals triggered by intracellular pathogens. Notably, cell death triggered by stimuli that engage caspase-1 was ablated in macrophages lacking either ASC or Ipaf, suggesting a coupling between the inflammatory and cell death pathways.     

The physical maps for sequencing human chromosomes 1, 6, 9, 10, 13, 20 and X

We constructed maps for eight chromosomes (1, 6, 9, 10, 13, 20, X and (previously) 22), representing one-third of the genome, by building landmark maps, isolating bacterial clones and assembling contigs. By this approach, we could establish the long-range organization of the maps early in the project, and all contig extension, gap closure and problem-solving was simplified by containment within local regions. The maps currently represent more than 94% of the euchromatic (gene-containing) regions of these chromosomes in 176 contigs, and contain 96% of the chromosome-specific markers in the human gene map. By measuring the remaining gaps, we can assess chromosome length and coverage in sequenced clones.     

A beta peptide immunization reduces behavioural impairment and plaques in a model of Alzheimer's disease

Much evidence indicates that abnormal processing and extracellular deposition of amyloid-beta peptide (A beta), a proteolytic derivative of the beta-amyloid precursor protein (betaAPP), is central to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease (reviewed in ref. 1). In the PDAPP transgenic mouse model of Alzheimer's disease, immunization with A beta causes a marked reduction in burden of the brain amyloid. Evidence that A beta immunization also reduces cognitive dysfunction in murine models of Alzheimer's disease would support the hypothesis that abnormal A beta processing is essential to the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease, and would encourage the development of other strategies directed at the 'amyloid cascade'. Here we show that A beta immunization reduces both deposition of cerebral fibrillar A beta and cognitive dysfunction in the TgCRND8 murine model of Alzheimer's disease without, however, altering total levels of A beta in the brain. This implies that either a approximately 50% reduction in dense-cored A beta plaques is sufficient to affect cognition, or that vaccination may modulate the activity/abundance of a small subpopulation of especially toxic A beta species.