Time series multistep‐ahead predictability estimation and ranking

A predictability index was defined as the ratio of the variance of the optimal prediction to the variance of the original time series by Granger and Anderson (1976) and Bhansali (1989). A new simplified algorithm for estimating the predictability index is introduced and the new estimator is shown to be a simple and effective tool in applications of predictability ranking and as an aid in the preliminary analysis of time series. The relationship between the predictability index and the position of the poles and lag p of a time series which can be modelled as an AR(p) model are also investigated. The effectiveness of the algorithm is demonstrated using numerical examples including an application to stock prices. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Genetic nondiscrimination

The identification and investigation of sentinel cases has illuminated genetic discrimination in the US. Its occurrence impedes applications of biotechnology and is a primary focus of public policy activity at the federal level. Continued research and informed responses may make genetic nondiscrimination more likely.     

Green leaf volatiles interrupt aggregation pheromone response in bark beetles infesting southern pines

Summary Green leaf volatiles were shown to interrupt responses to aggregation pheromones of three species of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) which infest pines in the southern United States [the southern pine beetle,Dendroctonus frontalis Zimm.; the four-spined engraver,Ips avulsus (Eichhoff); and the five-spined engraver,Ips grandicollis (Eichhoff)]. The order of effectiveness of the compounds tested for each species was hexanal>hexanal+hexan-1-ol>hexan-1-ol. Neither hexanal, hexan-1-ol nor hexanal+hexan-1-ol was as effective in interrupting pheromone responses ofD. frontalis as verbenone, a known inhibitor of this species. Other than interspecific chemical signals, this is the first report of an interruptant forIps species, and the only report of a pheromone interruptant active for bothIps andDendroctonus species.     

Vaccine protection against acquisition of neutralization-resistant SIV challenges in rhesus monkeys

Preclinical studies of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) vaccine candidates have typically shown post-infection virological control, but protection against acquisition of infection has previously only been reported against neutralization-sensitive virus challenges. Here we demonstrate vaccine protection against acquisition of fully heterologous, neutralization-resistant simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) challenges in rhesus monkeys. Adenovirus/poxvirus and adenovirus/adenovirus-vector-based vaccines expressing SIV(SME543) Gag, Pol and Env antigens resulted in an 80% or greater reduction in the per-exposure probability of infection against repetitive, intrarectal SIV(MAC251) challenges in rhesus monkeys. Protection against acquisition of infection showed distinct immunological correlates compared with post-infection virological control and required the inclusion of Env in the vaccine regimen. These data demonstrate the proof-of-concept that optimized HIV-1 vaccine candidates can block acquisition of stringent, heterologous, neutralization-resistant virus challenges in rhesus monkeys.