Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Neural Networks Considering Cointegration

This paper discusses techniques that might be helpful in predicting interest rates and tries to evaluate a new hybrid forecasting approach. Results of examining government bond yields in Germany and France reported in this study indicate that a hybrid forecasting approach which combines techniques of cointegration analysis with neural network (NN) forecasting models can produce superior results to the use of NN forecasting models alone. The findings documented in this paper could be a consequence of the fact that examining differenced data under certain conditions will lead to a loss of information and that the inclusion of the error correction term from the cointegration model can help to cope with this problem. The paper also discusses some possibly interesting directions for further research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Insights from the genome of the biotrophic fungal plant pathogen Ustilago maydis

Ustilago maydis is a ubiquitous pathogen of maize and a well-established model organism for the study of plant-microbe interactions. This basidiomycete fungus does not use aggressive virulence strategies to kill its host. U. maydis belongs to the group of biotrophic parasites (the smuts) that depend on living tissue for proliferation and development. Here we report the genome sequence for a member of this economically important group of biotrophic fungi. The 20.5-million-base U. maydis genome assembly contains 6,902 predicted protein-encoding genes and lacks pathogenicity signatures found in the genomes of aggressive pathogenic fungi, for example a battery of cell-wall-degrading enzymes. However, we detected unexpected genomic features responsible for the pathogenicity of this organism. Specifically, we found 12 clusters of genes encoding small secreted proteins with unknown function. A significant fraction of these genes exists in small gene families. Expression analysis showed that most of the genes contained in these clusters are regulated together and induced in infected tissue. Deletion of individual clusters altered the virulence of U. maydis in five cases, ranging from a complete lack of symptoms to hypervirulence. Despite years of research into the mechanism of pathogenicity in U. maydis, no 'true' virulence factors had been previously identified. Thus, the discovery of the secreted protein gene clusters and the functional demonstration of their decisive role in the infection process illuminate previously unknown mechanisms of pathogenicity operating in biotrophic fungi. Genomic analysis is, similarly, likely to open up new avenues for the discovery of virulence determinants in other pathogens.