Forecasting recessions using the yield curve

We compare forecasts of recessions using four different specifications of the probit model: a time invariant conditionally independent version; a business cycle specific conditionally independent model; a time invariant probit with autocorrelated errors; and a business cycle specific probit with autocorrelated errors. The more sophisticated versions of the model take into account some of the potential underlying causes of the documented predictive instability of the yield curve. We find strong evidence in favour of the more sophisticated specification, which allows for multiple breakpoints across business cycles and autocorrelation. We also develop a new approach to the construction of real time forecasting of recession probabilities. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How People Use Rich Pictures to Help Them Think and Act

Groups of all kinds are complex organisations. To understand them and to facilitate them in process terms is a matter of rich and diverse discourse in varied fields from sustainable development to coastal ecology; from bandwidth in rural communities to health service provision. How to allow groups to discourse, problem solve and review their own issues and concerns? Diagrams in general and rich pictures in particular can be great means to allow groups to explore their subconscious, their occult sentiments and conflicted understandings. This paper explores and explains diverse use of pictures and shows how they can be applied and understood in group processes of all kinds.     

Small molecule activators of SIRT1 as therapeutics for the treatment of type 2 diabetes

Calorie restriction extends lifespan and produces a metabolic profile desirable for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes. SIRT1, an NAD+-dependent deacetylase, is a principal modulator of pathways downstream of calorie restriction that produce beneficial effects on glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity. Resveratrol, a polyphenolic SIRT1 activator, mimics the anti-ageing effects of calorie restriction in lower organisms and in mice fed a high-fat diet ameliorates insulin resistance, increases mitochondrial content, and prolongs survival. Here we describe the identification and characterization of small molecule activators of SIRT1 that are structurally unrelated to, and 1,000-fold more potent than, resveratrol. These compounds bind to the SIRT1 enzyme-peptide substrate complex at an allosteric site amino-terminal to the catalytic domain and lower the Michaelis constant for acetylated substrates. In diet-induced obese and genetically obese mice, these compounds improve insulin sensitivity, lower plasma glucose, and increase mitochondrial capacity. In Zucker fa/fa rats, hyperinsulinaemic-euglycaemic clamp studies demonstrate that SIRT1 activators improve whole-body glucose homeostasis and insulin sensitivity in adipose tissue, skeletal muscle and liver. Thus, SIRT1 activation is a promising new therapeutic approach for treating diseases of ageing such as type 2 diabetes.     

Multi-domain conformational selection underlies pre-mRNA splicing regulation by U2AF

Many cellular functions involve multi-domain proteins, which are composed of structurally independent modules connected by flexible linkers. Although it is often well understood how a given domain recognizes a cognate oligonucleotide or peptide motif, the dynamic interaction of multiple domains in the recognition of these ligands remains to be characterized. Here we have studied the molecular mechanisms of the recognition of the 3'-splice-site-associated polypyrimidine tract RNA by the large subunit of the human U2 snRNP auxiliary factor (U2AF65) as a key early step in pre-mRNA splicing. We show that the tandem RNA recognition motif domains of U2AF65 adopt two remarkably distinct domain arrangements in the absence or presence of a strong (that is, high affinity) polypyrimidine tract. Recognition of sequence variations in the polypyrimidine tract RNA involves a population shift between these closed and open conformations. The equilibrium between the two conformations functions as a molecular rheostat that quantitatively correlates the natural variations in polypyrimidine tract nucleotide composition, length and functional strength to the efficiency to recruit U2 snRNP to the intron during spliceosome assembly. Mutations that shift the conformational equilibrium without directly affecting RNA binding modulate splicing activity accordingly. Similar mechanisms of cooperative multi-domain conformational selection may operate more generally in the recognition of degenerate nucleotide or amino acid motifs by multi-domain proteins.     

Genetic variants in novel pathways influence blood pressure and cardiovascular disease risk

Blood pressure is a heritable trait influenced by several biological pathways and responsive to environmental stimuli. Over one billion people worldwide have hypertension (≥140?mm?Hg systolic blood pressure or ≥90?mm?Hg diastolic blood pressure). Even small increments in blood pressure are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular events. This genome-wide association study of systolic and diastolic blood pressure, which used a multi-stage design in 200,000 individuals of European descent, identified sixteen novel loci: six of these loci contain genes previously known or suspected to regulate blood pressure (GUCY1A3-GUCY1B3, NPR3-C5orf23, ADM, FURIN-FES, GOSR2, GNAS-EDN3); the other ten provide new clues to blood pressure physiology. A genetic risk score based on 29 genome-wide significant variants was associated with hypertension, left ventricular wall thickness, stroke and coronary artery disease, but not kidney disease or kidney function. We also observed associations with blood pressure in East Asian, South Asian and African ancestry individuals. Our findings provide new insights into the genetics and biology of blood pressure, and suggest potential novel therapeutic pathways for cardiovascular disease prevention.