Forecasting volatility by means of threshold models

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of competing threshold models, in order to capture the asymmetric effect in the volatility. We focus on examining the relative out‐of‐sample forecasting ability of the SETAR‐Threshold GARCH (SETAR‐TGARCH) and the SETAR‐Threshold Stochastic Volatility (SETAR‐THSV) models compared to the GARCH model and Stochastic Volatility (SV) model. However, the main problem in evaluating the predictive ability of volatility models is that the ‘true’ underlying volatility process is not observable and thus a proxy must be defined for the unobservable volatility. For the class of nonlinear state space models (SETAR‐THSV and SV), a modified version of the SIR algorithm has been used to estimate the unknown parameters. The forecasting performance of competing models has been compared for two return time series: IBEX 35 and S&P 500. We explore whether the increase in the complexity of the model implies that its forecasting ability improves. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Metagenomic and functional analysis of hindgut microbiota of a wood-feeding higher termite

From the standpoints of both basic research and biotechnology, there is considerable interest in reaching a clearer understanding of the diversity of biological mechanisms employed during lignocellulose degradation. Globally, termites are an extremely successful group of wood-degrading organisms and are therefore important both for their roles in carbon turnover in the environment and as potential sources of biochemical catalysts for efforts aimed at converting wood into biofuels. Only recently have data supported any direct role for the symbiotic bacteria in the gut of the termite in cellulose and xylan hydrolysis. Here we use a metagenomic analysis of the bacterial community resident in the hindgut paunch of a wood-feeding 'higher' Nasutitermes species (which do not contain cellulose-fermenting protozoa) to show the presence of a large, diverse set of bacterial genes for cellulose and xylan hydrolysis. Many of these genes were expressed in vivo or had cellulase activity in vitro, and further analyses implicate spirochete and fibrobacter species in gut lignocellulose degradation. New insights into other important symbiotic functions including H2 metabolism, CO2-reductive acetogenesis and N2 fixation are also provided by this first system-wide gene analysis of a microbial community specialized towards plant lignocellulose degradation. Our results underscore how complex even a 1-microl environment can be.     

Palaeoclimatic distribution models predict Pleistocene refuges for the Neotropical harvestman Geraeocormobius sylvarum (Arachnida: Opiliones: Gonyleptidae)

This paper primarily aims to test a Pleistocene refuge-type scenario, as previously proposed for the gonyleptid Geraeocormobius sylvarum, a semi-deciduous forests dweller in subtropical Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Palaeodistributional models of this species were built using MaxEnt for two Last Glacial Maximum (LGM = 21,000 years ago) simulations – Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) – and for 6000 years ago (?6k = HCO, the Holocene climatic optimum). Both LGM models retrieved a fragmented pattern. For CCSM, range was split into multiple, scattered fragments. MIROC resulted in very few patches, with a decided range reduction because of a strong humidity drop. Models for ?6k recovered a moderate range expansion. No past connection between the core area and the yungas was predicted. Analysis of variables importance showed that two precipitation predictors (bc18, precipitation warmest quarter; bc14, precipitation driest month) and two temperature predictors (bc7, temperature annual range; bc9, mean temperature driest quarter) scored as the most influencing overall. The Limiting Factor analysis recognized them as limiting too, in different parts of the species range. LGM palaeomodels of G. sylvarum are compatible with the refuge hypothesis invoked in previous molecular analyses, to explain the high genetic diversity found in the core area. Additionally, the results reinforced the hypothesis of the recent anthropogenic origin of the yungas disjunct populations.     

First record of the genus Leptodactylus (Anura: Leptodactylidae) in Cuba: Leptodactylus fragilis,a biological invasion?

The Neotropical genus Leptodactylus is currently represented by three species in the West Indies (Leptodactylus albilabris, Leptodactylus fallax and Leptodactylus validus). Based on morphological, acoustic and molecular evidence, we document the presence of a fourth species in the Caribbean region, Leptodactylus fragilis (Brocchi, 1877). The species was found at two localities in western Cuba, and molecular data suggest a northern South American origin, possibly Venezuela, for these populations. We discuss the potential invasive status of L. fragilis, based on its known distribution, relative abundance, behaviour and possible impacts on native species of Cuban amphibians.     

Molecular characterization of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Arabidopsis</Emphasis> PHO80-like proteins,a novel class of CDKA;1-interacting cyclins

Cyclins are regulatory proteins that interact with cyclin-dependent kinases (CDKs) to control progression through the cell cycle. In Arabidopsis thaliana, 34 cyclin genes have been described, grouped into five different types (A, B, D, H, and T). A novel class of seven cyclins was isolated and characterized in Arabidopsis, designated P-type cyclins (CYCPs). They all share a conserved central region of 100 amino acids (cyclin box) displaying homology to the corresponding region of the PHO80 cyclin from Saccharomyces cerevisiae and the related G1 cyclins from Trypanosoma cruzi and T. brucei. The CYCP4;2 gene was able to partially re-establish the phosphate-dependent expression of the PHO5 gene in a pho80 mutant strain of yeast. The CYCPs interact preferentially with CDKA;1 in vivo and in vitro as shown by yeast two-hybrid analysis and co-immunoprecipitation experiments. P-type cyclins were mostly expressed in proliferating cells, albeit also in differentiating and mature tissues. The possible role of CYCPs in linking cell division, cell differentiation, and the nutritional status of the cell is discussed.Received 9 February 2004; received after revision 18 March; accepted 19 April 2004     

Ischemic myocardial injury in cultured heart cells: In situ lysosomal damage

Summary Primary cultures of rat myocardial cells which were subjected to oxygen and glucose deprivation, 2 conditions associated with ischemia, were evaluated for alterations in lysosomal integrity. A photometric technique measured changes in latent acid phosphatase activity and lysosomal membrane permeability.Acknowledgments: The authors thank Dora Fernandez for skillful technical assistance. Research was supported by a grant from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, HL 18647.     

Biased binding of class IA phosphatidyl inositol 3-kinase subunits to inducible costimulator (CD278)

To better understand T lymphocyte costimulation by inducible costimulator (ICOS; H4; CD278), we analyzed proteins binding to ICOS peptides phosphorylated at the Y₁₉₁MFM motif. Phosphorylated ICOS binds class IA phosphatidyl inositol 3-kinase (PI3-K) p85α, p50-55α and p85β regulatory subunits and p110α, p110δ and p110β catalytic subunits. Intriguingly, T cells expressed high levels of both p110α or p110δ catalytic subunits, yet ICOS peptides, cell surface ICOS or PI3-kinase class IA regulatory subunits preferentially coprecipitated p110α catalytic subunits. Silencing p110α or p110δ partially inhibited Akt/PKB activation induced by anti-CD3 plus anti-ICOS antibodies. However, silencing p110α enhanced and silencing p110δ inhibited Erk activation. Both p110α- and p110δ-specific inhibitors blocked cytokine secretion induced by TCR/CD3 activation with or without ICOS costimulus, but only p110α inhibitors blocked ICOS-induced cell elongation. Thus, p110α and p110δ are essential to optimal T cell activation, but their abundance and activity differentially tune up distinct ICOS signaling pathways.     

Mechanism of genetic exchange in American trypanosomes

The kinetoplastid Protozoa are responsible for devastating diseases. In the Americas, Trypanosoma cruzi is the agent of Chagas' disease--a widespread disease transmissible from animals to humans (zoonosis)--which is transmitted by exposure to infected faeces of blood-sucking triatomine bugs. The presence of genetic exchange in T. cruzi and in Leishmania is much debated. Here, by producing hybrid clones, we show that T. cruzi has an extant capacity for genetic exchange. The mechanism is unusual and distinct from that proposed for the African trypanosome, Trypanosoma brucei. Two biological clones of T. cruzi were transfected to carry different drug-resistance markers, and were passaged together through the entire life cycle. Six double-drug-resistant progeny clones, recovered from the mammalian stage of the life cycle, show fusion of parental genotypes, loss of alleles, homologous recombination, and uniparental inheritance of kinetoplast maxicircle DNA. There are strong genetic parallels between these experimental hybrids and the genotypes among natural isolates of T. cruzi. In this instance, aneuploidy through nuclear hybridization results in recombination across far greater genetic distances than mendelian genetic exchange. This mechanism also parallels genome duplication.