Bootstrapping forecast intervals: An application to AR(p) models

Forecast intervals typically depend upon an assumption of normal forecast errors due to lack of information concerning the distribution of the forecast. This article applies the bootstrap to the problem of estimating forecast intervals for an AR(p) model. Box-Jenkins intervals are compared to intervals produced from a naive bootstrap and a bias-correction bootstrap. Substantial differences between the three methods are found. Bootstrapping an AR(p) model requires use of the backward residuals which typically are not i.i.d. and hence inappropriate for bootstrap resampling. A recently developed method of obtaining i.i.d. backward residuals is employed and was found to affect the bootstrap prediction intervals.     

Urogastrone-epidermal growth factor is trophic to the intestinal epithelium of parenterally fed rats

The weight of the stomach, small intestine and colon and the mucosal crypt cell production rate of these tissues were significantly decreased after 10 days on an isocaloric TPN diet when compared to orally fed controls. Continuous infusion of recombinant beta urogastrone, at a dose below that needed to inhibit gastric acid secretion, largely prevented this decrease in crypt cell production rate and gastrointestinal tissue weights.     

Germline mutations and sequence variants of the macrophage scavenger receptor 1 gene are associated with prostate cancer risk

Deletions on human chromosome 8p22-23 in prostate cancer cells and linkage studies in families affected with hereditary prostate cancer (HPC) have implicated this region in the development of prostate cancer. The macrophage scavenger receptor 1 gene (MSR1, also known as SR-A) is located at 8p22 and functions in several processes proposed to be relevant to prostate carcinogenesis. Here we report the results of genetic analyses that indicate that mutations in MSR1 may be associated with risk of prostate cancer. Among families affected with HPC, we identified six rare missense mutations and one nonsense mutation in MSR1. A family-based linkage and association test indicated that these mutations co-segregate with prostate cancer (P = 0.0007). In addition, among men of European descent, MSR1 mutations were detected in 4.4% of individuals affected with non-HPC as compared with 0.8% of unaffected men (P = 0.009). Among African American men, these values were 12.5% and 1.8%, respectively (P = 0.01). These results show that MSR1 may be important in susceptibility to prostate cancer in men of both African American and European descent.     

Urogastrone-epidermal growth factor is trophic to the intestinal epithelium of parenterally fed rats

Summary The weight of the stomach, small intestine and colon and the mucosal crypt cell production rate of these tissues were significantly decreased after 10 days on an isocaloric TPN diet when compared to orally fed controls. Continuous infusion of recombinant beta urogastrone, at a dose below that needed to inhibit gastric acid secretion, largely prevented this decrease in crypt cell production rate and gastrointestinal tissue weights.