Nowcasting and predicting data revisions using panel survey data

The qualitative responses that firms give to business survey questions regarding changes in their own output provide a real‐time signal of official output changes. The most commonly used method to produce an aggregate quantitative indicator from business survey responses—the net balance or diffusion index—has changed little in 40 years. This paper investigates whether an improved real‐time signal of official output data changes can be derived from a recently advanced method on the aggregation of survey data from panel responses. We find, in a New Zealand application, that exploiting the panel dimension to qualitative survey data gives a better in‐sample signal about official data than traditional methods. Out‐of‐sample, it is less clear that it matters how survey data are quantified, with simpler and more parsimonious methods hard to improve. It is clear, nevertheless, that survey data, exploited in some form, help to explain revisions to official data. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

Resistance to carbon dioxide,an anoxic stress inDrosophila melanogaster

Résumé Des lignées deD. melanogaster formées à partir d'une femelle fécondée naturellement, sont polymorphiques par raport au degré de mortalité résultant de leur maintient prolongé dans une atmosphère de CO₂. Il est établi que ces différences proviennent de variations dans les gènes additifs. On observe que la réaction au CO₂ est presque identique à celle que provoque le N₂, un gaz biologiquement inerte, causant l'asphyxie. L'auteur conclut que le CO₂ entraîne l'asphyxie lorsqu'on l'administre durant des périodes prolongées et que les populations naturelles deD. melanogaster sont polymorphiques quant à leur résistance à l'asphyxie.

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Supported by Commonwealth of Australia Postgraduate Award.

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Advice and criticism by Prof.P. A. Parsons is gratefully acknowledged.