Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

浅谈功率因数的补偿及其应用

根据我国当前电力系统运行情况，对电网无功功率补偿的必要性及通用补偿方法及其装置进行了具体阐述。     

西文期刊回溯建库中几个重要项目的著录

在实践的基础上，从期刊的出版日期、出版周期、卷、期、年、月及其他标识、ISSN、增刊、出版者以及期刊的历史发展等方面对西文期刊机读目录的标准化著录问题进行了探讨。     

顶凌覆盖节水增产技术研究

通过1998年、2000年的试验研究，系统分析了顶凌覆盖技术在高寒区节水增温保温、增产增收的机理及其应用效果。提出该技术可以缓解低温干旱特别是春旱对农业生产的困扰，是一项可以抗旱保春播增产增收的实用技术，在高寒地区具有较高的推广价值。     

Tissue-specific and reversible RNA interference in transgenic mice

Genetically engineered mice provide powerful tools for understanding mammalian gene function. These models traditionally rely on gene overexpression from transgenes or targeted, irreversible gene mutation. By adapting the tetracycline (tet)-responsive system previously used for gene overexpression, we have developed a simple transgenic system to reversibly control endogenous gene expression using RNA interference (RNAi) in mice. Transgenic mice harboring a tet-responsive RNA polymerase II promoter driving a microRNA-based short hairpin RNA targeting the tumor suppressor Trp53 reversibly express short hairpin RNA when crossed with existing mouse strains expressing general or tissue-specific 'tet-on' or 'tet-off' transactivators. Reversible Trp53 knockdown can be achieved in several tissues, and restoring Trp53 expression in lymphomas whose development is promoted by Trp53 knockdown leads to tumor regression. By leaving the target gene unaltered, this approach permits tissue-specific, reversible regulation of endogenous gene expression in vivo, with potential broad application in basic biology and drug target validation.     

Recombination and linkage disequilibrium in Arabidopsis thaliana

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) is a major aspect of the organization of genetic variation in natural populations. Here we describe the genome-wide pattern of LD in a sample of 19 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions using 341,602 non-singleton SNPs. LD decays within 10 kb on average, considerably faster than previously estimated. Tag SNP selection algorithms and 'hide-the-SNP' simulations suggest that genome-wide association mapping will require only 40%-50% of the observed SNPs, a reduction similar to estimates in a sample of African Americans. An Affymetrix genotyping array containing 250,000 SNPs has been designed based on these results; we demonstrate that it should have more than adequate coverage for genome-wide association mapping. The extent of LD is highly variable, and we find clear evidence of recombination hotspots, which seem to occur preferentially in intergenic regions. LD also reflects the action of selection, and it is more extensive between nonsynonymous polymorphisms than between synonymous polymorphisms.     

Probing met repressor-operator recognition in solution.

The three-dimensional crystal structure of the Escherichia coli methionine repressor, MetJ, complexed with a DNA operator fragment is described in an accompanying article. The complex exhibits several novel features of DNA-protein interaction. DNA sequence recognition is achieved largely by hydrogen-bond contacts between the bases and amino-acid side chains located on a beta-ribbon, a mode of recognition previously hypothesized on the basis of modelling of idealized beta-strands and DNA, and mutagenesis of the Salmonella phage P22 repressors Arc and Mnt. The complex comprises a pair of MetJ repressor dimers which bind to adjacent met-box sites on the DNA, and contact each other by means of a pair of antiparallel alpha-helices. Here we assess the importance of these contacts, and also of contacts that would be made between the C-helices of the protein and DNA in a previous model of the complex, by studying mutations aimed at disrupting them. The role of the carboxy-terminal helix face in operator binding was unclear, but we demonstrate that recognition of operator sequences occurs through side chains in the beta-strand motif and that dimer-dimer interactions are required for effective repression.