Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

蕴涵环交换性的某些多项恒等式

设ｍ＞１，ｎ，ｐ，ｑ，ｒ，ｓ均为正整数，Ｒ是一个具有单位元１的环．证明了：如果Ｒ中的任意ｘ，ｙ满足且Ｒ具有Ｑ（ｍ）性质，则Ｒ是一个交换环．此外，在适当的条件下确立了Ｒ的交换性．     

高电压十二相可逆电路的环流

讨论了高电压十二相可逆电路的环流问题 ,给出了环流波形图 ,并简要说明了波形图的使用方法 .所得结论可为工程技术人员设计系统提供方便 .     

公交IC卡收费系统与客流数据采集、处理

根据目前国内公交收费的发展趋势,设计出用于对客流等数据采集的IC卡自动收费系统,并提出利用它来进行客流等数据采集、处理的新方案.与人工调查相比,它的投入小得多,并且可以提供大量详细、准确的动态数据,对城市公交以及公交的智能化调度、线路的开辟、优化、站点的设置等都具有极其重要的意义.     

The role of dyking and fault control in the rapid onset of eruption at Chaitén volcano, Chile

Rhyolite is the most viscous of liquid magmas, so it was surprising that on 2?May 2008 at Chaitén Volcano, located in Chile's southern Andean volcanic zone, rhyolitic magma migrated from more than 5?km depth in less than 4?hours (ref.?1) and erupted explosively with only two days of detected precursory seismic activity. The last major rhyolite eruption before that at Chaitén was the largest volcanic eruption in the twentieth century, at Novarupta volcano, Alaska, in 1912. Because of the historically rare and explosive nature of rhyolite eruptions and because of the surprisingly short warning before the eruption of the Chaitén volcano, any information about the workings of the magmatic system at Chaitén, and rhyolitic systems in general, is important from both the scientific and hazard perspectives. Here we present surface deformation data related to the Chaitén eruption based on radar interferometry observations from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) DAICHI (ALOS) satellite. The data on this explosive rhyolite eruption indicate that the rapid ascent of rhyolite occurred through dyking and that melt segregation and magma storage were controlled by existing faults.     

Programming the magnitude and persistence of antibody responses with innate immunity

Many successful vaccines induce persistent antibody responses that can last a lifetime. The mechanisms by which they do so remain unclear, but emerging evidence indicates that they activate dendritic cells via Toll-like receptors (TLRs). For example, the yellow fever vaccine YF-17D, one of the most successful empiric vaccines ever developed, activates dendritic cells via multiple TLRs to stimulate proinflammatory cytokines. Triggering specific combinations of TLRs in dendritic cells can induce synergistic production of cytokines, which results in enhanced T-cell responses, but its impact on antibody responses remain unknown. Learning the critical parameters of innate immunity that program such antibody responses remains a major challenge in vaccinology. Here we demonstrate that immunization of mice with synthetic nanoparticles containing antigens plus ligands that signal through TLR4 and TLR7 induces synergistic increases in antigen-specific, neutralizing antibodies compared to immunization with nanoparticles containing antigens plus a single TLR ligand. Consistent with this there was enhanced persistence of germinal centres and of plasma-cell responses, which persisted in the lymph nodes for >1.5 years. Surprisingly, there was no enhancement of the early short-lived plasma-cell response relative to that observed with single TLR ligands. Molecular profiling of activated B cells, isolated 7 days after immunization, indicated that there was early programming towards B-cell memory. Antibody responses were dependent on direct triggering of both TLRs on B cells and dendritic cells, as well as on T-cell help. Immunization protected completely against lethal avian and swine influenza virus strains in mice, and induced robust immunity against pandemic H1N1 influenza in rhesus macaques.     

一类周期拟环的结构

本文得到了拟环满足条件ｘｙ＝ｘｙ￣（ｎ（ｘ，ｙ）ｘ或ｘｙ＝ｙｘ￣（ｎ（ｘ，ｙ）ｙ的分解定理。