Forecasting of dependence,market, and investment risks of a global index portfolio

This paper undertakes an in-sample and rolling-window comparative analysis of dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks on a 10-year global index portfolio of developed, emerging, and commodity markets. We draw our empirical results by fitting vine copulas (e.g., r-vines, c-vines, d-vines), IGARCH(1,1) RiskMetrics value-at-risk (VaR), and portfolio optimization methods based on risk measures such as the variance, conditional value-at-risk, conditional drawdown-at-risk, minimizing regret (Minimax), and mean absolute deviation. The empirical results indicate that all international indices tend to correlate strongly in the negative tail of the return distribution; however, emerging markets, relative to developed and commodity markets, exhibit greater dependence, market, and portfolio investment risks. The portfolio optimization shows a clear preference towards the gold commodity for investment, while Japan and Canada are found to have the highest and lowest market risk, respectively. The vine copula analysis identifies symmetry in the dependence dynamics of the global index portfolio modeled. Large VaR diversification benefits are produced at the 95% and 99% confidence levels by the modeled international index portfolio. The empirical results may appeal to international portfolio investors and risk managers for advanced portfolio management, hedging, and risk forecasting.     

Development of City Transport System and Two-wheel Vehicles

Based on the study on the city transport systems of some typical cities worldwide, this paper put forward that each city transport system has its own development mode, which is influenced by the city development plan, economic development level, traveling vehicle composition etc.. When some problems occur, such as the congestions caused by contradiction between the road capacity and vehicle composition, the city transport system may come into temporary maturity period. If the improvement for road system is limited meanwhile, optimized structure of vehicle composition should be an effective solution in this case. With the development of economy-internationalization, the development speed of city transport modernization is rapid. When traveling easiness is conflicting with efficiency, the advantages of public transport system become more obvious. Correspondingly, the superiority of two-wheel vehicles will reappear. Though the important function of two-wheel vehicles for alleviating city traffic problems i     

Absence of naturally occurring coronary atherosclerosis in squirrel monkeys (Saimiri sciurea) treated with chondroitin sulfate A

Zusammenfassung Die überraschende Atheromatosehemmende Wirkung von Chondroitin-Sulfat konnte nun auch beiSaimiri scurea, einem Primaten mit hoher Inzidenz von Atheromatose, nachgewiesen werden.

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Supported in part by grants from the Heart Institute of the National Institutes of Health, U. S. Public Health Service, John A. Hartford Foundation, Inc., and other donors.     

Genotype, haplotype and copy-number variation in worldwide human populations

Genome-wide patterns of variation across individuals provide a powerful source of data for uncovering the history of migration, range expansion, and adaptation of the human species. However, high-resolution surveys of variation in genotype, haplotype and copy number have generally focused on a small number of population groups. Here we report the analysis of high-quality genotypes at 525,910 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and 396 copy-number-variable loci in a worldwide sample of 29 populations. Analysis of SNP genotypes yields strongly supported fine-scale inferences about population structure. Increasing linkage disequilibrium is observed with increasing geographic distance from Africa, as expected under a serial founder effect for the out-of-Africa spread of human populations. New approaches for haplotype analysis produce inferences about population structure that complement results based on unphased SNPs. Despite a difference from SNPs in the frequency spectrum of the copy-number variants (CNVs) detected--including a comparatively large number of CNVs in previously unexamined populations from Oceania and the Americas--the global distribution of CNVs largely accords with population structure analyses for SNP data sets of similar size. Our results produce new inferences about inter-population variation, support the utility of CNVs in human population-genetic research, and serve as a genomic resource for human-genetic studies in diverse worldwide populations.     

The genome of the extremophile crucifer Thellungiella parvula

Thellungiella parvula is related to Arabidopsis thaliana and is endemic to saline, resource-poor habitats, making it a model for the evolution of plant adaptation to extreme environments. Here we present the draft genome for this extremophile species. Exclusively by next generation sequencing, we obtained the de novo assembled genome in 1,496 gap-free contigs, closely approximating the estimated genome size of 140 Mb. We anchored these contigs to seven pseudo chromosomes without the use of maps. We show that short reads can be assembled to a near-complete chromosome level for a eukaryotic species lacking prior genetic information. The sequence identifies a number of tandem duplications that, by the nature of the duplicated genes, suggest a possible basis for T. parvula's extremophile lifestyle. Our results provide essential background for developing genomically influenced testable hypotheses for the evolution of environmental stress tolerance.     

Mutations in TTBK2, encoding a kinase implicated in tau phosphorylation, segregate with spinocerebellar ataxia type 11

The microtubule-associated protein tau (encoded by MAPT) and several tau kinases have been implicated in neurodegeneration, but only MAPT has a proven role in disease. We identified mutations in the gene encoding tau tubulin kinase 2 (TTBK2) as the cause of spinocerebellar ataxia type 11. Affected brain tissue showed substantial cerebellar degeneration and tau deposition. These data suggest that TTBK2 is important in the tau cascade and in spinocerebellar degeneration.     

On the predictability of crude oil market: A hybrid multiscale wavelet approach

Past research indicates that forecasting is important in understanding price dynamics across assets. We explore the potentiality of multiscale forecasting in the crude oil market by employing a wavelet multiscale analysis on returns and volatilities of Brent and West Texas Intermediate crude oil indices between January 1, 2001, and May 1, 2015. The analysis is based on a shift-invariant discrete wavelet transform, augmented by an entropy-based methodology for determining the optimal timescale decomposition under different market regimes. The empirical results show that the five-step-ahead wavelet forecast that is based on volatilities outperforms the random walk forecast, relative to the wavelet forecast that is based on returns. Optimal wavelet causality forecasting for returns is suggested across all frequencies (i.e., daily–yearly), whereas for volatilities it is suggested only up to quarterly frequencies. These results may have important implications for market efficiency and predictability of prices on the crude oil markets.     

Circadian variation of the streptozotocin-diabetogenic effect in mice.

Streptozotocin was injected in normal mice every 4 h, during the day. Greatest number of diabetic animals were obtained at 16.00 h (95%) and lowest at 08.00 h (50%). Magnitude of hyperglycemia also showed similar distribution. This effect might be considered when planning its use for both experimental and clinical purposes.