On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

Combining multivariate volatility forecasts using weighted losses

The ability to improve out-of-sample forecasting performance by combining forecasts is well established in the literature. This paper advances this literature in the area of multivariate volatility forecasts by developing two combination weighting schemes that exploit volatility persistence to emphasise certain losses within the combination estimation period. A comprehensive empirical analysis of the out-of-sample forecast performance across varying dimensions, loss functions, sub-samples and forecast horizons show that new approaches significantly outperform their counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy. Within the financial applications considered, significant benefits from combination forecasts relative to the individual candidate models are observed. Although the more sophisticated combination approaches consistently rank higher relative to the equally weighted approach, their performance is statistically indistinguishable given the relatively low power of these loss functions. Finally, within the applications, further analysis highlights how combination forecasts dramatically reduce the variability in the parameter of interest, namely the portfolio weight or beta.     

A somitic Wnt16/Notch pathway specifies haematopoietic stem cells

Haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) are a self-renewing population of cells that continuously replenish all blood and immune cells during the lifetime of an individual. HSCs are used clinically to treat a wide array of diseases, including acute leukaemias and congenital blood disorders, but obtaining suitable numbers of cells and finding immune-compatible donors remain serious problems. These difficulties have led to an interest in the conversion of embryonic stem cells or induced pluripotent stem cells into HSCs, which is not possible using current methodologies. To accomplish this goal, it is critical to understand the native mechanisms involved in the specification of HSCs during embryonic development. Here we demonstrate in zebrafish that Wnt16 controls a novel genetic regulatory network required for HSC specification. Non-canonical signalling by Wnt16 is required for somitic expression of the Notch ligands deltaC (dlc) and deltaD (dld), and these ligands are, in turn, required for the establishment of definitive haematopoiesis. Notch signalling downstream of Dlc and Dld is earlier than, and distinct from, known cell-autonomous requirements for Notch, strongly suggesting that novel Notch-dependent relay signal(s) induce the first HSCs in parallel to other established pathways. Our results demonstrate that somite-specific gene expression is required for the production of haemogenic endothelium.     

A new mechanism for induced vitamin D deficiency in calcium deprivation

Synthesis of vitamin D in the skin in response to ultraviolet light is the main determinant of vitamin D status in man and it is therefore surprising that rickets and osteomalacia, clinical signs of vitamin D deficiency, remain common in tropical and subtropical countries. Skin pigmentation can reduce vitamin D formation but this is a negligible limitation in people exposed to abundant ultraviolet light. Earlier studies in animals and man suggested that another environmental factor, the low calcium/high cereal diet typical of susceptible populations, might affect the efficiency of vitamin D utilization. We show here in rats that the rate of inactivation of vitamin D in the liver is increased by calcium deprivation. The effect is mediated by 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, produced in response to secondary hyperparathyroidism, which promotes hepatic conversion of vitamin D to polar inactivation products that are excreted in bile. This finding has widespread implications both for understanding the pathogenesis of endemic rickets and in that it provides a unifying mechanism for the development of vitamin D deficiency in many clinical disorders.     

The suppression of star formation by powerful active galactic nuclei

The old, red stars that constitute the bulges of galaxies, and the massive black holes at their centres, are the relics of a period in cosmic history when galaxies formed stars at remarkable rates and active galactic nuclei (AGN) shone brightly as a result of accretion onto black holes. It is widely suspected, but unproved, that the tight correlation between the mass of the black hole and the mass of the stellar bulge results from the AGN quenching the surrounding star formation as it approaches its peak luminosity. X-rays trace emission from AGN unambiguously, whereas powerful star-forming galaxies are usually dust-obscured and are brightest at infrared and submillimetre wavelengths. Here we report submillimetre and X-ray observations that show that rapid star formation was common in the host galaxies of AGN when the Universe was 2-6 billion years old, but that the most vigorous star formation is not observed around black holes above an X-ray luminosity of 10(44) ergs per second. This suppression of star formation in the host galaxy of a powerful AGN is a key prediction of models in which the AGN drives an outflow, expelling the interstellar medium of its host and transforming the galaxy's properties in a brief period of cosmic time.     

Moving beyond Volatility Index (VIX): HARnessing the term structure of implied volatility

This paper considers how information from the implied volatility (IV) term structure can be harnessed to improve stock return volatility forecasting within the state-of-the-art HAR model. Factors are extracted from the IV term structure and included as exogenous variables in the HAR framework. We found that including slope and curvature factors leads to significant forecast improvements over the HAR benchmark at a range of forecast horizons, compared with the standard HAR model and HAR model with VIX as IV information set.     

半胱氨酸亚金铵的合成、理化性质及电镀金应用

以半胱氨酸为配体合成一种新型亚金配合物NH4Au(Cys)2,对该配合物进行元素分析、红外光谱、紫外光谱、热失重分析和导电性测量等理化性质研究;以该亚金配合物为金源开展相关的电镀金工艺探索,并通过四因素三水平的正交试验获得其最佳条件参数;采用扫描电子显微镜(SEM)和X线衍射(XRD)对镀金层的表面质量进行探讨。研究结果表明:该目标产物的分子式为NH4Au(Cys)2·2H2O,该配合物中以半胱氨酸的巯基和金配位为成健特征,在170℃以下热稳定性较好,该亚金配合物是一个典型的离子化合物。在电流密度为200~300 A/m2,p H为10.5~12.0,温度为35~45℃,金质量浓度为15~25 g/L的电镀工艺条件下,得到粒度为0.5~1.0μm的单质金,且主要沿着(111)面进行生长。     

随机纳米碳管网络及其渗流性质

数值模拟了实验上构造纳米碳管网络的溶液沉积方法.与一般的随机网络模型不同,将碳管的长度计算在内,而且考虑了不同的空间相交位形.数值模拟发现网络的度分布为高斯分布,平均集聚系数约为0.11.当网络中碳管平均面密度取值在σ0=179 200根/cm2附近时,网络系综达到渗流.在临界点附近,网络的连通概率p、两极之间电导G、...     

十六位微机教学实验系统分析与改进

本文在分析CCT－88／51／98教学实验系统监控程序的基础上，对该教学实验系统监控程序中存在的问题作出了一些改进。     

用脸谱图对太子河本溪市区段河流沉积物中重金属污染进行评价的研究

本文将沉积学原理及国际上新发展的两种重金属污染评价方法与多变量的图表示法——脸谱图相结合,对太子河本溪市区段河道沉积物中重金属的污染状况及潜在生态危害进行了综合性的评价研究。从脸谱图上可以直观地看出各采样点重金属的污染情况和潜在生态危害程度。从研究结果可以看出,太子河本溪市区段河道沉积物中重金属的污染是很严重的。