Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

The neuronal sortilin-related receptor SORL1 is genetically associated with Alzheimer disease

The recycling of the amyloid precursor protein (APP) from the cell surface via the endocytic pathways plays a key role in the generation of amyloid beta peptide (Abeta) in Alzheimer disease. We report here that inherited variants in the SORL1 neuronal sorting receptor are associated with late-onset Alzheimer disease. These variants, which occur in at least two different clusters of intronic sequences within the SORL1 gene (also known as LR11 or SORLA) may regulate tissue-specific expression of SORL1. We also show that SORL1 directs trafficking of APP into recycling pathways and that when SORL1 is underexpressed, APP is sorted into Abeta-generating compartments. These data suggest that inherited or acquired changes in SORL1 expression or function are mechanistically involved in causing Alzheimer disease.     

Statecharts for Distributed Product Data Management System Modelling

Product data management (PDM) has been accepted as an important tool for the manufacturing industries. In recent years, more and mor e researches have been conducted in the development of PDM. Their research area s include system design, integration of object-oriented technology, data distri bution, collaborative and distributed manufacturing working environment, secur ity, and web-based integration. However, there are limitations on their rese arches. In particular, they cannot cater for PDM in dis...     

LOGISTICS SCHEDULING： ANALYSIS OFTWO-STAGE PROBLEMS

This paper studies the coordination effects between stages for scheduling problems where decision-making is a two-stage process. Two stages are considered as one system. The system can be a supply chain that links two stages, one stage representing a manufacturer; and the other, a distributor It also can represent a single manufacturer, while each stage represents a different department responsible for a part of operations. A problem that jointly considers both stages in order to achieve ideal overall system performance is defined as a system problem. In practice, at times, it might not be feasible for the two stages to make coordinated decisions due to (i) the lack of channels that allow decision makers at the two stages to cooperate, and/or (ii) the optimal solution to the system problem is too difficult (or costly) to achieve.Two practical approaches are applied to solve a variant of two-stage logistic scheduling problems. The Forward Approach is defined as a solution procedure by which the first sta     

Common deletion polymorphisms in the human genome

The locations and properties of common deletion variants in the human genome are largely unknown. We describe a systematic method for using dense SNP genotype data to discover deletions and its application to data from the International HapMap Consortium to characterize and catalogue segregating deletion variants across the human genome. We identified 541 deletion variants (94% novel) ranging from 1 kb to 745 kb in size; 278 of these variants were observed in multiple, unrelated individuals, 120 in the homozygous state. The coding exons of ten expressed genes were found to be commonly deleted, including multiple genes with roles in sex steroid metabolism, olfaction and drug response. These common deletion polymorphisms typically represent ancestral mutations that are in linkage disequilibrium with nearby SNPs, meaning that their association to disease can often be evaluated in the course of SNP-based whole-genome association studies.     

Intelligence service binding architecture for interoperability between home network devices

Existing home devices in home network provides only independent services limited on a homogeneous protocol and/or do not fully support an intelligent service provided by cooperating among heterogeneous protocol devices. This paper proposes an intelligent and integrated service binding architecture which allow the users to figure out the status of devices and to cooperate among home network devices regardless of supported protocols or operational characteristics.     

汉人王弥与匈奴汉国的地方统治

公元307年,王弥反晋起义失败后,决心依附匈奴汉国。他和刘渊“深有分契”,尽量利用汉国的名义,其势力逐渐达到“东王青州”的程度。他成为匈奴汉国地方武装势力后,始终以半独立的状态存在。将以王弥为例,寻找汉国地方武装势力的生存过程,并分析其地方统治模式是一件颇为有意义的工作。