Forecasting time series with long memory and level shifts

It is well known that some economic time series can be described by models which allow for either long memory or for occasional level shifts. In this paper we propose to examine the relative merits of these models by introducing a new model, which jointly captures the two features. We discuss representation and estimation. Using simulations, we demonstrate its forecasting ability, relative to the one‐feature models, both in terms of point forecasts and interval forecasts. We illustrate the model for daily S&P500 volatility. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

韩国会展产业及未来发展趋势

近些年社会各界一直关注会展,根源于会展展示了社会、政治、经济和文化现象。在媒体多元化时代,会展可以给人们以最直接的方式传递感动。20世纪80年代之后,经济的发展导致人们对生活的需求有了质的改变,也使得会展数量与质量的增长顺应了社会-文化发展的需要。会展的发展,也不能仅仅是从社会-文化层面上寻找原因,产业与经济的需求也是一个重要的推动力。最近产业领域的技术均衡化趋势,使得各国硬件型产业的差距正在迅速缩小,这也成为重心转向软件型产业的动因。软件型产业中,“知识”和“创造力”占据重要位置。会展领域进入韩国初期,是以施工为重点的硬件型产业,当时也是摸着石头过河,走了不少弯路。但现今韩国会展产业却逐步发展成独立的创造型软件产业。可以预见,未来韩国的会展产业会顺应经济增长的需求,逐步成为软件型产业和创造型产业的中流砥柱。回顾韩国会展产业的历史,探寻未来会展产业发展进程中将要应对的挑战及其前进的方向,在思想上、技术上必须作好充分的准备。     

The kinetic studies of direct methane oxidation to methanol in the plasma process

The research outlined here includes a study of methanol production from direct methane conversion by means of thermal and plasma method. The kinetic study, derived from thermal-based approach, was carried out to investigate thoroughly the possible intermediate species likely to be presented in the process. A set of plasma experiments was undertaken by using dielectric barrier discharge （DBD）, classified as non-thermal plasma, done at atmospheric pressure and room temperature. Plasma process yields more methanol than thermal process at the same methane conversion rates and methane to oxygen feed ratios. Oxidation reaction of thermal process resulted CO and CO2 as the most dominant products and the selectivity reached 19% and 68%, respectively. Moreover, more CO and less CO2 were produced in plasma process than in thermal process. The selectivity of CO and CO2 by plasma was 47% and 20%, respectively. Ethane （C2H6）was detected as the only higher hydrocarbon with a significant concentration. The concentration of ethane reached 9% of the total products in plasma process and 17% in thermal process. The maximum selectivity of methanol, the target material of this research, was 12% obtained by plasma method and less than 5% by thermal process. In some certain points, the kinetic model closely matched with the experimental results.     

Linking series generated at different frequencies

This is a report on our studies of the systematical use of mixed‐frequency datasets. We suggest that the use of high‐frequency data in forecasting economic aggregates can increase the accuracy of forecasts. The best way of using this information is to build a single model that relates the data of all frequencies, for example, an ARMA model with missing observations. As an application of linking series generated at different frequencies, we show that the use of a monthly industrial production index improves the predictability of the quarterly GNP. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constructing Failure: Leonard Hayflick,Biomedicine, and the Problems with Tissue Culture

By examining the use of tissue culture in post-war American biomedicine, this paper investigates how scientists experience and manage failure. I study how Leonard Hayflick forged his new definition of failure and ways of managing it by refuting Alexis Carrel's definition of failure alongside his theory of the immortality of cultured cells. Unlike Carrel, Hayflick claimed that every vertebrate somatic cell should eventually die, unless it transformed into a tumour cell. This claim defined cell death, which had been a problem leading to a laboratory failure, as a normal phenomenon. On the other hand, permanent life, which had been considered a normal cellular characteristic, became a major factor causing scientific failure, since it implied malignant transformation that scientists hoped to control. Hayflick then asserted that his cell strains and method would partly enable scientists to manage this factor—especially that occurred through viral infection—alongside other causes of failure in routine tasks, including bacterial contamination. I argue that the growing biomedical enterprise fostered this work of Hayflick's, which had repercussions in both his career and the uses of cells in diverse investigations. His redefinition of failure in the age of biomedicine resulted in the broad dissemination of his cells, medium, and method as well as his long struggle with the National Institutes of Health (NIH), which caused his temporarily failed career.     

孟亨在设计作品选

走在首尔市区,眼前所能见到的自然景观只有流淌的汉江和偶尔在楼房之间冒出的树木。这些自然景观的欣赏主体——人,用各种道具和技术遮盖并改换了自然。人工景观不仅是第二个城     

Pleiotropic defects in lymphocyte activation caused by caspase-8 mutations lead to human immunodeficiency

Apoptosis is a form of programmed cell death that is controlled by aspartate-specific cysteine proteases called caspases. In the immune system, apoptosis counters the proliferation of lymphocytes to achieve a homeostatic balance, which allows potent responses to pathogens but avoids autoimmunity. The CD95 (Fas, Apo-1) receptor triggers lymphocyte apoptosis by recruiting Fas-associated death domain (FADD), caspase-8 and caspase-10 proteins into a death-inducing signalling complex. Heterozygous mutations in CD95, CD95 ligand or caspase-10 underlie most cases of autoimmune lymphoproliferative syndrome (ALPS), a human disorder that is characterized by defective lymphocyte apoptosis, lymphadenopathy, splenomegaly and autoimmunity. Mutations in caspase-8 have not been described in ALPS, and homozygous caspase-8 deficiency causes embryonic lethality in mice. Here we describe a human kindred with an inherited genetic deficiency of caspase-8. Homozygous individuals manifest defective lymphocyte apoptosis and homeostasis but, unlike individuals affected with ALPS, also have defects in their activation of T lymphocytes, B lymphocytes and natural killer cells, which leads to immunodeficiency. Thus, caspase-8 deficiency in humans is compatible with normal development and shows that caspase-8 has a postnatal role in immune activation of naive lymphocytes.     

壁面压力传声器阵列测量--后台阶湍流相干结构的相关分析

介绍了湍流边界层壁面压力脉动的传声器阵列测量方法,并采用30个电容式ICP型传声器阵列同步采样测量了低速风洞中后台阶分离再附湍流的壁面压力脉动。压力功率谱和压力脉动系数分布表明,低频大尺度旋涡结构为分离再附湍流流动主要成分。对原始信号进行数字滤波并通过自相关分析,计算得到分离再附湍流中低频大尺度相干结构的相关尺度变化特征和输运速度等参数。     

Treatment outcome of localized Helicobacter pylori-negative low-grade gastric MALT lymphoma

AIM: To investigate treatment outcome of Helicobacter pylori (H.pylori )-negative low-grade gastric mucosaassociated lymphoid tissue (MALT) lymphoma.METHODS: In this study,we retrospectively reviewed the clinical outcome and clinicopathologic factors of stage Ⅰ E H.pylori -negative low-grade gastric MALT lymphoma cases from August 1998 to June 2009.RESULTS: A total of eleven patients with H.pylori -negative low-grade gastric MALT lymphoma were enrolled in the study and received anti-H.pylori eradication tre...