Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Interleukin-33 stimulates formation of functional osteoclasts from human CD14+ monocytes

Interleukin (IL)-33 is a recently described pro-inflammatory cytokine. Here we demonstrate IL-33 as a regulator of functional osteoclasts (OCs) from human CD14⁺ monocytes. IL-33 stimulates formation of tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase (TRAP)⁺ multinuclear OCs from monocytes. This action was suppressed by anti-ST2 antibody, suggesting that IL-33 acts through its receptor ST2, but not by the receptor activator of NF-κB ligand (RANKL) decoy, osteoprotegerin, or anti-RANKL antibody. IL-33 stimulated activating phosphorylations of signaling molecules in monocytes that are critical for OC development. These included Syk, phospholipase Cγ2, Gab2, MAP kinases, TAK-1, and NF-κB. IL-33 also enhanced expression of OC differentiation factors including TNF-α receptor-associated factor 6 (TRAF6), nuclear factor of activated T cells cytoplasmic 1, c-Fos, c-Src, cathepsin K, and calcitonin receptor. IL-33 eventually induced bone resorption. This study suggests that the osteoclastogenic property of IL-33 is mediated through TRAF6 as well as the immunoreceptor tyrosine-based activation motif-dependent Syk/PLCγ pathway in human CD14⁺ monocytes.     

Birds of a Feather Protest Together: Theorizing Self-Organizing Political Protests with Flock Theory

The current research theorizes decentralized and self-organized political protests via flock theory (Rosen 2002), a theory of emergent self-organization in communicative human interaction. Flock theory draws from a theoretical basis of emergence and self-organizing systems, and is presented as a theory of decentralized communication structures. Focusing on the optimization of decentralized networks and roadmap based coordination of organizationally homopholous foci; the current theory poses a model of human interaction that captures the potentially egalitarian effects of cooperative evolution and collective action. Case studies of two separate decentralized political protests against Korean government and FARC are offered as evidences of such phenomena.     

Phosphodiesterase: overview of protein structures, potential therapeutic applications and recent progress in drug development

Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) are essential regulators of cyclic nucleotide signaling with diverse physiological functions. Because of their great market potential and therapeutic importance, PDE inhibitors became recognized as important therapeutic agents in the treatment of various diseases. Currently, there are seven PDE inhibitors on the market, and the pharmacological and safety evaluations of many drug candidates are in progress. Three-dimensional (3D) structures of catalytic domains of PDE 1, -3, -4, -5 and -9 in the presence of their inhibitors are now available, and can be utilized for rational drug design. Recent advances in molecular pharmacology of PDE isoenzymes resulted in identification of new potential applications of PDE inhibitors in various therapeutic areas, including dementia, depression and schizophrenia. This review will describe the latest advances in PDE research on 3D structural studies, the potential of therapeutic applications and the development of drug candidates.Received 30 November 2004; received after revision 24 January 2005; accepted 5 February 2005     

Control of plant germline proliferation by SCF(FBL17) degradation of cell cycle inhibitors

Flowering plants possess a unique reproductive strategy, involving double fertilization by twin sperm cells. Unlike animal germ lines, the male germ cell lineage in plants only forms after meiosis and involves asymmetric division of haploid microspores, to produce a large, non-germline vegetative cell and a germ cell that undergoes one further division to produce the twin sperm cells. Although this switch in cell cycle control is critical for sperm cell production and delivery, the underlying molecular mechanisms are unknown. Here we identify a novel F-box protein of Arabidopsis thaliana, designated FBL17 (F-box-like 17), that enables this switch by targeting the degradation of cyclin-dependent kinase A;1 inhibitors specifically in male germ cells. We show that FBL17 is transiently expressed in the male germ line after asymmetric division and forms an SKP1-Cullin1-F-box protein (SCF) E3 ubiquitin ligase complex (SCF(FBL17)) that targets the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitors KRP6 and KRP7 for proteasome-dependent degradation. Accordingly, the loss of FBL17 function leads to the stabilization of KRP6 and inhibition of germ cell cycle progression. Our results identify SCF(FBL17) as an essential male germ cell proliferation complex that promotes twin sperm cell production and double fertilization in flowering plants.     

Swiprosin-1 modulates actin dynamics by regulating the F-actin accessibility to cofilin

Membrane protrusions, like lamellipodia, and cell movement are dependent on actin dynamics, which are regulated by a variety of actin-binding proteins acting cooperatively to reorganize actin filaments. Here, we provide evidence that Swiprosin-1, a newly identified actin-binding protein, modulates lamellipodial dynamics by regulating the accessibility of F-actin to cofilin. Overexpression of Swiprosin-1 increased lamellipodia formation in B16F10 melanoma cells, whereas knockdown of Swiprosin-1 inhibited EGF-induced lamellipodia formation, and led to a loss of actin stress fibers at the leading edges of cells but not in the cell cortex. Swiprosin-1 strongly facilitated the formation of entangled or clustered F-actin, which remodeled the structural organization of actin filaments making them inaccessible to cofilin. EGF-induced phosphorylation of Swiprosin-1 at Ser183, a phosphorylation site newly identified using mass spectrometry, effectively inhibited clustering of actin filaments and permitted cofilin access to F-actin, resulting in actin depolymerization. Cells overexpressing a Swiprosin-1 phosphorylation-mimicking mutant or a phosphorylation-deficient mutant exhibited irregular membrane dynamics during the protrusion and retraction cycles of lamellipodia. Taken together, these findings suggest that dynamic exchange of Swiprosin-1 phosphorylation and dephosphorylation is a novel mechanism that regulates actin dynamics by modulating the pattern of cofilin activity at the leading edges of cells.     

Structure of the catalytic domain of human phosphodiesterase 5 with bound drug molecules

Phosphodiesterases (PDEs) are a superfamily of enzymes that degrade the intracellular second messengers cyclic AMP and cyclic GMP. As essential regulators of cyclic nucleotide signalling with diverse physiological functions, PDEs are drug targets for the treatment of various diseases, including heart failure, depression, asthma, inflammation and erectile dysfunction. Of the 12 PDE gene families, cGMP-specific PDE5 carries out the principal cGMP-hydrolysing activity in human corpus cavernosum tissue. It is well known as the target of sildenafil citrate (Viagra) and other similar drugs for the treatment of erectile dysfunction. Despite the pressing need to develop selective PDE inhibitors as therapeutic drugs, only the cAMP-specific PDE4 structures are currently available. Here we present the three-dimensional structures of the catalytic domain (residues 537-860) of human PDE5 complexed with the three drug molecules sildenafil, tadalafil (Cialis) and vardenafil (Levitra). These structures will provide opportunities to design potent and selective PDE inhibitors with improved pharmacological profiles.