具有迁移效应和隔离措施的COVID-19传播模型分析

基于COVID-19传播过程中人口流动的必然性、无症状感染者的普遍性和隔离策略的有效性,该文提出了一类具有迁移效应、无症状感染者、自我防护意识和隔离策略的COVID-19传播动力学模型,利用下一代矩阵方法给出了各类子系统和全系统基本再生数的精确表达式.进一步地,通过采用线性近似理论,构造Lyapunov函数、比较原理等方法,得到了无病平衡点的全局渐近稳定性以及疾病的持久性.最后,数值模拟解释了主要的理论结果以及人口的迁移和隔离对疾病传播的影响.     

Shift-contagion in energy markets and global crisis

This paper presents an analysis of shift-contagion in energy markets, testing whether linkages between returns in energy markets increase during crisis periods. The research presented herein demonstrates how common movement between energy markets increases due to (i) shift-contagion across energy markets, reflected by structural transmission of shocks across markets and (ii) larger common shocks operating through standard cross-market interdependences. A regime-switching model was developed to detect shift-contagion across energy markets. In the approach adopted herein, the occurrence of shift-contagion is endogenously estimated rather than being exogenously assigned. The results show that shift-contagion has been a major feature of energy markets over the last decade. Evidence is presented which demonstrates that the linkages between energy markets do not appear to be stable. These results are remarkably accurate for forecasting Brent and natural gas for horizons for up to 50 days. Conversely, for WTI (West Texas Intermediate oil) and coal, the model performs well only for forecasting very short horizons (up to 20 days). For all products, the model shows significant biases for long horizons.     

SUMT法在传动轴优化设计中的应用

惩罚函数(SUMT)法将一个约束优化问题转化为一系列无约束优化问题来求解,数值稳定性好,求解范围广。将其应用到某型号空心传动轴的重量最小化设计,以其各项使用性能和尺寸要求为约束条件,采用内点罚函数法建立优化设计的数学模型,通过迭代得到最优设计参数。结果表明：SUMT法收敛快、精度高,是求解机械优化设计问题的高效算法。     

基于自动变速的混合动力装载机控制策略

为了提高装载机能源的利用率与变矩传动效率,通过分析某5 t装载机的工况特点,提出了基于自动变速的并联式混合动力方案;采用模糊逻辑控制策略,通过在线估计系统需求转矩与车速,以需求转矩、超级电容SOC值、车速、油门开度及液力变矩器效率作为输入,输出发动机与电动机的工作点及系统挡位.结果表明:发动机效率提高,超级电容SOC值稳定,挡位变化合理有效,混合动力比传统装载机节油约9.56%,混合动力自动变速比传统装载机节油约11.82%,改善了燃油经济性.     

A routing algorithm for industrial wireless network based on ISA100.11a

ISA100.11 a industrial wireless network standard is based on a deterministic scheduling mechanism.For the timeslot delay caused by deterministic scheduling,a routing algorithm is presented for industrial environments.According to timeslot,superframe,links,channel and data retransmission of deterministic scheduling mechanisms that affect the design of the routing algorithm,the algorithm selects the link quality,timeslot delay and retransmission delay as the routing criteria and finds the optimum communication path by k shortest paths algorithm.Theoretical analysis and experimental verification show that the optimal paths selected by the algorithm not only have high link quality and low retransmission delay,but also meet the requirements of the deterministic scheduling.The algorithm can effectively solve the problem of packet loss and transmission delay during data transmission,and provide a valuable solution for efficient data transmission based on determinacy.     

硬岩掘进机刀盘载荷与撑靴接触界面刚度的耦合关系

在复合地质条件掘进时刀盘载荷与撑靴接触界面的耦合关系严重影响硬岩掘进机(TBM)动态特性.基于并联机构理论研究TBM推进系统的力传递特性,建立刀盘、机械系统和撑靴接触刚度耦合力传递模型,讨论了刀盘在复合地质条件下掘进时刀盘载荷波动与撑靴岩石接触界面刚度之间的耦合关系.结果表明,撑靴接触界面刚度随刀盘载荷增大而非线性增大;复合地层中,刀盘载荷波动,接触界面刚度也呈现相应的波动特性;两侧撑靴接触界面岩石软硬不同时,刀盘载荷均值和波动增加,接触界面刚度均值和波动加大,且较硬一侧增加幅度大于较软一侧减小幅度.     

“全碳排”核算与碳绩效评价方法研究

提出"全碳排"核算方法,其核算账户包括能源消耗碳排放、生物质资源消费潜在碳耗用和废弃物排放潜在碳耗用;以太阳能值为量纲归一化工具,进行全碳排放量核算;以全碳排核算为基础,综合考虑单位碳排人口承载量、单位碳排经济产出量和单位碳排人均可支配收入获取量等信息,构建能够反映碳效率和发展协调度的碳排放绩效综合指数,以衡量一个地区的碳绩效。以北京市和重庆市为例,评价2001—2011年间的碳排放综合绩效。结果显示:两个城市的能源消耗碳排在全碳排总量中所占比重不断上升,可见即使从全碳排视角来看,能源消费仍是影响碳排放的最主要因素;两个城市三个方面的分指标值差异较大,可见不同的生产水平对碳排影响不容忽视;较之仅考虑能源碳排及碳生产率的传统碳效率评估,基于"全碳排"核算的碳综合绩效评价,可以更为公平客观地反映一个地区的碳绩效,为地区碳减排责任认定提供科学参考。     

一种多用户多天线的无线网络传输方案

在多用户多输入多输出无线通信系统网络中,如何实现各对用户间的高速率、高可靠数据传输是目前国内外重点关注的一项关键通信技术.针对具有两对用户且每个用户均装配四根天线的网络模型,提出了一种能够实现全速率传输并能获得全分集误码性能的编码传输方案.仿真结果表明所提编码传输方案具有有效性.该方案可以进一步拓展到多用户多天线的情况.     

基于ZigBee的战场数话传输模块的设计与实现

为了实现战场上语音和数据的近距离无线传输,将语音传输与ZigBee无线网络相结合,利用ZigBee技术设计一个小型的无线网络,代替有线通信方式. 以IAR的Embedded Workbench为开发平台,设计了控制模块、语音模块、无线通信模块、功率放大模块、数据接口等模块硬件电路. 采用RALCWI语音压缩算法保证话音质量,设计了2.4 GHz ZigBee网络节点,组成2.4 GHz ZigBee小型网络,在网络内自由传输语音和数据,并在软件上实现了语音处理和组网、无线收发数据、数据传输等功能,解决了战场上无线传输的问题.