Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

关于可对称化矩阵的Weyl-Лидский型定理

建立了可对称化矩阵情形下的型定理和与近似不变子空间相关的特征值扰动分析.拓广了W Kahan的相应结果.     

韶关大学男生身体素质现状研究

本文通过对韶关大学93和94级男生五项身体素质成绩的差异研究，并与全省同年级男生进行横向比较，以了解韶关大学男生身体素质现状，并为公共体育教学和为学校发展学生身体素质提供参考依据。     

ON THE ORDERING OF A CLASS OF HEXAGONAL CHAINS WITH RESPECT TO MERRIFIELD-SIMMONS INDEX

A hexagonal system is regarded as a 2-connected plane graph in which every finite region is aregular hexagon of unit side length. Hexagonal systems are of great importance for theoreticalchemistry because they are the natural graph representation of benzenoid hydrocarbonsll].Merrifield-Simmons index of a hexagonal system was extensively studied in connection withcertain topological problems of chemistry[']. A hexagonal chain is a hexagonal system with theproperties that (a) it has no vertex be…     

肝动脉化疗栓塞术治疗肝恶性肿瘤对肝功能的影响

目的探讨肝动脉化疗栓塞术(TACE)治疗肝恶性肿瘤患者对肝功能的影响.方法选取60例肝恶性肿瘤患者作为本组观察病例,分别在术前、术后1d、7d、3周及6周时对患者进行肝功能检测,并对结果进行对比分析.结果术后1d及术后7d的ALT,TBIL,DBIL均明显高于术前,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05);术后其余各项指标与术前相比均无明显差异,无统计学意义(P0.05).结论 TACE治疗后短期内对肝恶性肿瘤患者的肝功能有较大影响,在治疗后要注意加强对患者肝功能的保护.     

长白山重点国有林区森林资源动态分析--以临江林业局为例

以临江林业局为例,分析了1977—2008年长白山重点国有林区森林资源动态变化情况,并提出今后森林资源经营管理的建议.结果表明:临江林业局林业用地面积和有林地面积均呈先下降后上升趋势,林地利用效率逐渐提高.1977—1997年,天然林面积逐年大幅减少,减少率约为37%,而后逐年上升;阔叶林蓄积所占比例大幅减少,针叶林蓄积比例大幅增加,针阔混交林蓄积占比趋向合理;1987年,中龄林面积和蓄积比例均很大;2008年林分各龄组面积和蓄积占比趋向合理.     

企业原材料利用率计算分析方法探讨

从系统的观点出发简述了企业原材料利用率分析和计算方法。显然,技术、管理都影响原材料利用率。只考虑其中之一是片面的,也妨碍了企业经济效益的提高.     

DEMPTER-SHAFER合成法则的悖论

针对证据推理理论中的Ｄｅｍｐｔｅｒ－Ｓｈａｆｅｒ证据合成法则构造出了三条悖论,为该法则的应用划出了一些禁区.     

一般环流问题过程瓶颈分析

通过定义瓶颈结构来对一般环流问题进行瓶颈分析 ,其中瓶颈结构是一个圈增益为 1的一般网络 ,我们称之为简单增益网络 .对于简单增益网络我们定义了相应的等效简单网络 ,并利用关于简单网络最大流瓶颈分析的结论分析等效简单网络 ,在此基础上进一步完成了一般环流问题的过程瓶颈分析 .