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The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula. 相似文献
3.
Celso O. Azevedo Simon van Noort David G. Notton 《Journal of Natural History》2018,52(23-24):1537-1549
Holepyris semiruber Kieffer is redescribed and illustrated based on freshly collected specimens. Holepyris semiruber var. striatipleura Kieffer is considered a colour variant of this species and therefore a junior synonym of H. semiruber syn. nov. This species is transferred to Disepyris, D. semiruber (Kieffer) comb. nov., based on the possession of a short 2r-rs&Rs vein in the fore wing and presence of long flat spine-shaped setae on the outer (posterior) surface of the protarsi. The male is described for the first time from new specimens collected in South Africa. This species is recorded for the first time from Namibia and Zimbabwe. All photographs are available on www.waspweb.org. 相似文献
4.
Lu Gong 《Journal of Natural History》2018,52(31-32):2097-2119
Seven new species of the genus Pseudostegana are discovered from South China: P. latiapicula sp. nov., P. nannanae sp. nov., P. bingxueae sp. nov., P. husaensis sp. nov., P. linyongi sp. nov., P. montipagana sp. nov., and P. sigangli sp. nov.; the first two new species belong to the P. latiparma species group, and the rest belong to the P. zonaria species group. The DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene with BOLD Process ID and GenBank accession numbers are provided for the seven new species and 10 known species from southern China: P. acutifoliolata Li, Gao and Chen, 2010; P. angustifasciata Chen and Wang, 2005, P. bifasciata Chen, Toda and Wang, 2005, P. bilobata Li, Gao and Chen, 2010; P. insularis Li, Gao and Chen, 2010; P. latifasciata Chen, Toda and Wang, 2005, P. minutipalpata; P. nitidifrons Chen and Wang, 2005, P. pallidemaculata Chen and Wang, 2005 and P. silvana. Intra- and interspecific pairwise Kimura’s two-parameter (K2P) distances among these species are summarised. www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:C01D7920-61AD-4651-8861-9D76C3CD86F6 相似文献
5.
利用能量分析的方法, 首先考虑定义在三维半无穷柱体上的波动方程, 当空间变量趋于无穷时, 证明其解或者指数式增长或者指数式衰减; 其次, 考虑定义在球面外部区域上的波动方程, 证明其解随半径的二择一结果; 最后, 证明对于非线性弹性方程, 二择性定理仍有效. 相似文献
6.
信息技术的快速发展不仅推动了中微观层面上智慧城市的发展建设,在宏观概念上更是未来区域协调高效合作的核心驱动力。中国的智慧城市建设已经体现出由点到面、连片发展的态势,智慧区域建设是必然趋势。对国外智慧区域分析表明智慧区域建设的经验是:重视信息通信技术、注重创新、高效合作、人才培养等。建议国内智慧区域建设重视区域的范围多维化、合作效率高效化、教育与创新积极化、市民参与的多元化等。 相似文献
7.
Jana Slancarova Pavel Vrba Michal Platek Michal Zapletal Lukas Spitzer Martin Konvicka 《Journal of Natural History》2015,49(29-30):1825-1848
Comparative studies of co-occurring species using overlapping resources may help in understanding the mechanisms supporting biotic diversity in species-rich regions, such as the Mediterranean region of Europe. Three Papilionidae butterflies, Archon apollinus, Zerynthia cerisy and Zerynthia polyxena, develop on Aristolochia plants and co-occur in Greek Thrace. We used mark–recapture to describe adult demography and dispersal, and searched for eggs and larvae to assess host plants and microhabitat preferences. Adult flight timing followed a sequence from earliest A. apollinus, through Z. polyxena to late Z. cerisy; this was more prominent in 2010 (warm early spring) than in 2011 (cold delayed spring). Population densities were highest for A. apollinus and lowest for Z. cerisy, whereas dispersal ability followed a reverse pattern. Adults of all three species crossed distances > 3 km and used all habitat types present. Four Aristolochia host plants were used at the study locality: small Aristolochia pallida, intermediate Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, and bulky, late-sprouting Aristolochia clematitis. Both A. apollinus and Z. polyxena used all four Aristolochia species, the former preferring Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia hirta, the latter Aristolochia rotunda and Aristolochia pallida. Zerynthia cerisy did not use the early-growing Aristolochia pallida while frequently using the late-growing Aristolochia clematitis. Further parameters affecting oviposition were biotope and canopy closure: early A. apollinus tolerated shady sites but late Z. cerisy avoided them. The simultaneous use of several host plants differing in phenology and habitat requirements, combined with rather high dispersal ability, arguably buffers the butterflies’ population dynamics against yearly variation in weather, while allowing efficient occupation of the diverse Mediterranean landscapes. The regional habitat diversity, created during millennia of human activity, is currently threatened by land abandonment, which may diminish the resource base for the studied butterflies. 相似文献
8.
丁永胜 《吉林大学学报(理学版)》2020,58(6):1461-1466
针对快速图像特征区域检测受噪声干扰和尺度空间影响, 导致图像特征区域检测精度较低、 延时较长, 检测结果不可靠的问题, 提出一种基于尺度不变特征变换的快速图像特征区域检测方法. 先通过加权核函数, 加权平滑处理图像中各像素点, 实现图像去噪; 再在此基础上通过构建图像高斯尺度空间确定图像特征点区域, 删除低对比度像素点和边缘像素点, 快速提取图像特征点, 检测特征点所在区域即为图像特征区域. 仿真实验结果表明, 该方法能高效率、高精度地实现快速图像特征区域检测的全面检测. 相似文献
9.
自然场景中文本检测易受光照、复杂背景、多语言文字、字体及尺寸等因素影响,该文提出了一种基于Itti视觉关注模型与多尺度最大稳定极值区域(maximally stable extremalregion,MSER)结合的自然场景文本检测算法.首先利用改进的Itti视觉关注模型提取文本特征图,并采用不同结合策略得到各尺度文本显著图;然后结合多尺度的MSER区域得到3种文本候选区域.根据文字与生成文本框的几何规则合并文本候选区域得到文本行;最后利用随机森林分类器除去非文本区域得到最终文本区域.实验结果表明,该方法对于自然场景图像中的文本检测具有较高的精确度和一定的鲁棒性. 相似文献
10.
考虑为移动中的查询对象连续返回k个距离近并且满足空间多样化约束的对象,提出了空间多样化约束下的移动k近邻(SDC-MkNN)查询.在此,满足空间多样化约束代表对象之间的相互距离大于距离阈值.为了高效处理SDC-MkNN查询问题,提出了两种基于安全区域技术的算法.算法均通过减少重新计算查询结果的次数来提高查询效率.其中一种为精确算法EA,可连续返回精确的查询结果;另一种为近似算法ρAA,可连续返回具有近似率保障的近似查询结果.采用真实数据集验证了所提出算法的有效性. 相似文献