中非经贸合作下非洲基础设施建设的现状与挑战——以亚吉铁路建设为例

在分析非洲基础设施建设现状和特点的基础上,通过亚吉铁路建设的案例研究,探讨了中非经贸合作下非洲基础设施建设的成功效应和存在的主要问题,得出中国标准缺乏国际认可、中非双方存在文化冲突、对非“全产业链”与投融资需要强化和产业结构相似的结论。同时,对未来中非经贸合作下非洲基础设施建设的发展从消除文化差异、提高合作层次、加强投融资、改进中国标准、明确合作区发展定位、后疫情时代加快构建更紧密的中非命运共同体和加强产能合作并发挥产能优势等角度提出可行性建议。     

基于CRC的ASM信号维特比纠错算法

为提高甚高频数据交换系统(very high frequency data exchange system, VDES)中应用特定消息(application-specific messages, ASM)的解码性能, 提出一种基于循环冗余校验(cyclic redundancy check, CRC)的改进维特比纠错算法。通过合理降低符号状态数和使用部分CRC参与纠错, 使该算法平衡了纠错性能和计算量, 同时提出了新的分支度量以解决过于理想化的传统分支度量导致的性能损失。仿真表明, 新分支度量相比传统分支度量提升了1 dB的误帧率(packet error rate, PER)性能, 在用12个CRC寄存器参与纠错的条件下，该方法比相干解调算法提升了1 dB的PER性能, 同时通过合理的符号状态数降低策略将计算量降为传统算法的1/4。     

Google Trends and the forecasting performance of exchange rate models

In this paper, we use Google Trends data for exchange rate forecasting in the context of a broad literature review that ties the exchange rate movements with macroeconomic fundamentals. The sample covers 11 OECD countries’ exchange rates for the period from January 2004 to June 2014. In out‐of‐sample forecasting of monthly returns on exchange rates, our findings indicate that the Google Trends search query data do a better job than the structural models in predicting the true direction of changes in nominal exchange rates. We also observed that Google Trends‐based forecasts are better at picking up the direction of the changes in the monthly nominal exchange rates after the Great Recession era (2008–2009). Based on the Clark and West inference procedure of equal predictive accuracy testing, we found that the relative performance of Google Trends‐based exchange rate predictions against the null of a random walk model is no worse than the purchasing power parity model. On the other hand, although the monetary model fundamentals could beat the random walk null only in one out of 11 currency pairs, with Google Trends predictors we found evidence of better performance for five currency pairs. We believe that these findings necessitate further research in this area to investigate the extravalue one can get from Google search query data.     

Exchange rate forecasting and the performance of currency portfolios

We examine the potential gains of using exchange rate forecast models and forecast combination methods in the management of currency portfolios for three exchange rates: the euro versus the US dollar, the British pound, and the Japanese yen. We use a battery of econometric specifications to evaluate whether optimal currency portfolios implied by trading strategies based on exchange rate forecasts outperform single currencies and the equally weighted portfolio. We assess the differences in profitability of optimal currency portfolios for different types of investor preferences, two trading strategies, mean squared error‐based composite forecasts, and different forecast horizons. Our results indicate that there are clear benefits of integrating exchange rate forecasts from state‐of‐the‐art econometric models in currency portfolios. These benefits vary across investor preferences and prediction horizons but are rather similar across trading strategies.     

外汇欧式期权在市场不完备下的对冲误差分析

本文研究了外汇欧式期权的对冲误差问题,针对典型的静态和动态Delta对冲策略,在对冲过程不连续和利率平价公式不成立的市场不完备情形下,给出了即期对冲和远期对冲的对冲误差公式,从而能够更准确地衡量实际对冲组合产生的风险.在研究Delta对冲策略过程中,本文提出了一个包含摩擦系数ε的外汇远期汇率模型,并通过分析即期对冲和远期对冲的差异,给出了最优对冲方式的判别条件.该判别条件依赖于摩擦系数ε,做市商仅通过对摩擦系数ε实时的监控,便可以选择最优的风险对冲方式,从而提高了对冲效率.本文提出的对冲误差的具体解析式和最优对冲方式的判别条件为外汇期权对冲及其风险管理提供了理论依据.实证结果表明,本文提出的期望收益差与实际对冲组合的收益差基本一致,从而验证了判别条件的合理性.     

Janus few layered graphene with asymmetric wettability as anti-flooding cathode supports in proton exchange membrane fuel cells

Water balance in cathode catalyst layer (CCL) is crucial for proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs). Herein, we report a novel strategy to develop a Janus few layered graphene particles (FLGP) with asymmetric wettability by varying the carbon precursors in the chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process. Using the Janus FLGP supported Pt with asymmetric wettability as the cathode of a PEMFC, a peak power density of 632 mW cm⁻² was achieved, which was about two-folds of the hydrophobic FLGP and three-folds of hydrophilic FLGP based cathode, respectively. The enhanced performance could be ascribed to the well-constructed three-phase boundary in an anti-flooding cathode, leading to enlarged electrochemical active surface area and facilitated mass transfer. This work may provide new clues for improving water management in PEMFCs.     

现阶段我国工业产能过剩及去产能的形势分析

本文考察了现阶段我国工业产能过剩以及去产能的形势,指出产能利用率持续偏低、生产者价格指数持续为负和行业盈利持续下降是现阶段产能过剩的主要表现,然而当前通过减产量、去产能来化解产能过剩的政策效果并不明显,这主要是因为受地方政府干预过多、企业陷入"囚徒困境"和威胁经济社会稳定等因素的制约。政府应深化和落实地方官员政绩考核体制、生产要素定价机制等的改革,减少地方政府对经济的不当干预,发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用,实现企业优胜劣汰,同时应建立产能退出补偿机制,避免引发社会动荡。     

跳扩散下汇率变动的外商直接投资问题研究

本文在跳扩散环境下研究了汇率变动对外商直接投资的影响.首先,通过Ito公式,推导得出跳扩散环境下以本币表示的风险资产价格动力学方程.然后在终端财富预期效用最大化标准下,利用HJB方程推导最优投资策略,得出最优动态资产配置策略的近似解.最后对结果进行数值分析,定量分析了跳和汇率变化对投资商最优资产配置策略的影响.     

不溶性腐植酸的制备及其吸附能力

采用陕西黄陵风化煤中提取的腐植酸为原料,选取保温温度和保温时间为变量,利用高温脱水钙化法制备出不同条件下的不溶性腐植酸.实验结果表明当改性的腐植酸保温时间为2 h,保温温度为330℃时,吸附效果最佳,最佳条件下制备的不溶性腐植酸对水体中Cu~(2+)的吸附量为8.87 mg/g,对亚甲基蓝吸附效率达98.8%.腐植酸的碘吸附值158.4 mg/g,而最佳制备条件下的不溶性的腐植酸比表面积增加,微孔吸附能力增强,碘吸附值可达262.9 mg/g.扫描电子显微镜(SEM)分析可以看出不溶性腐植酸表面更加粗糙,并负载了许多球状小颗粒,有助于提高吸附能力;傅里叶变换红外光谱(FTIR)分析表明不溶性腐植酸结构中羟基和有机卤化物的含量明显增高,有利于对重金属离子和有机污染物的吸附.     

城市创新能力的成长动力、成长曲线与驱动机制研究——基于213个城市面板数据的实证

城市作为区域发展的中心,集聚各类要素资源与经济社会活动,其创新能力的提升关乎城市经济发展、区域协调发展及国家可持续发展。本文基于以往的研究成果,采集我国213个地级及以上城市2007-2016年间的面板数据,运用时间序列分析、空间数据分析及多元回归分析等研究方法描绘了城市创新能力的成长曲线,对城市创新能力的成长动力与驱动机制进行了探索,得出各个解释变量均对城市创新能力产生了显著的正向影响,其中,创新人才变量驱动能力最强的结论。在此基础上,本文还揭示不同区域不同城市的创新能力驱动机制,对成长动力各个维度在我国不同区域不同城市中的驱动强度进行了验证。