数字经济中基于察觉-动机-能力模型的创新扩散机制

数字经济时代下,创新扩散的模式和机制正随着经济环境的变化发生重大变化。鉴于此,本文对数字经济中的创新归纳出信息数字化、组织网络化、用户参与化等特征,基于察觉-动机-能力分析模型对创新的扩散机制进行过程建模,并基于多智能体仿真分析创新扩散。仿真结果表明,随着信息数字化的发展,创新扩散的网络分布不均匀性增加,引起信息资源高效配置和创新扩散的快速迭代;组织网络化带来产业组织在多个层面的集聚,拉近了企业之间的创新距离;用户参与化使得消费者成为创新的贡献者,增加了创新参与者的数量,企业也因此能够更为精确地捕捉用户需求。数字创新中的三种效应共同作用,改善了技术扩散的速率和规模。     

ΛCDM and MOND: A debate about models or theory?

The debate between ΛCDM and MOND is often cast in terms of competing gravitational theories. However, recent philosophical discussion suggests that the ΛCDM–MOND debate demonstrates the challenges of multiscale modeling in the context of cosmological scales. I extend this discussion and explore what happens when the debate is thought to be about modeling rather than about theory, offering a model-focused interpretation of the ΛCDM–MOND debate. This analysis shows how a model-focused interpretation of the debate provides a better understanding of challenges associated with extension to a different scale or domain, which are tied to commitments about explanatory fit.     

Permissible idealizations for the purpose of prediction

Every model leaves out or distorts some factors that are causally connected to its target phenomenon—the phenomenon that it seeks to predict or explain. If we want to make predictions, and we want to base decisions on those predictions, what is it safe to omit or to simplify, and what ought a causal model to describe fully and correctly? A schematic answer: the factors that matter are those that make a difference to the target phenomenon. There are several ways to understand differencemaking. This paper advances a view as to which is the most relevant to the forecaster and the decision-maker. It turns out that the right notion of differencemaking for thinking about idealization in prediction is also the right notion for thinking about idealization in explanation; this suggests a carefully circumscribed version of Hempel’s famous thesis that there is a symmetry between explanation and prediction.     

Reconceptualising equilibrium in Boltzmannian statistical mechanics and characterising its existence

In Boltzmannian statistical mechanics macro-states supervene on micro-states. This leads to a partitioning of the state space of a system into regions of macroscopically indistinguishable micro-states. The largest of these regions is singled out as the equilibrium region of the system. What justifies this association? We review currently available answers to this question and find them wanting both for conceptual and for technical reasons. We propose a new conception of equilibrium and prove a mathematical theorem which establishes in full generality – i.e. without making any assumptions about the system׳s dynamics or the nature of the interactions between its components – that the equilibrium macro-region is the largest macro-region. We then turn to the question of the approach to equilibrium, of which there exists no satisfactory general answer so far. In our account, this question is replaced by the question when an equilibrium state exists. We prove another – again fully general – theorem providing necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of an equilibrium state. This theorem changes the way in which the question of the approach to equilibrium should be discussed: rather than launching a search for a crucial factor (such as ergodicity or typicality), the focus should be on finding triplets of macro-variables, dynamical conditions, and effective state spaces that satisfy the conditions of the theorem.     

小信号模型Superbuck变换器控制系统的设计

为了进一步减小超级变换器—Superbuck变换器的输出纹波,本文针对Superbuck变换器进行控制系统的设计。根据典型的Superbuck变换器主拓扑结构开环频率特性,设计出一种双闭环控制系统,给出了方案、系统设计图和设计后的系统开环传递函数。本文对设计的控制系统进行了仿真,仿真显示,与国内外设计的Superbuck控制系统相比,系统输出性能得到了提高。     

基于潜在类别条件Logit模型的机舱座位选择行为

为向旅客推送精细化座位推荐服务,通过潜在类别条件logit模型探究了旅客座位偏好及座位效用差异。首先运用解释结构模型筛选出影响旅客选座的关键因素；其次对旅客及其选择偏好进行RP-SP调查,运用潜在类别条件Logit模型划分旅客类别,进一步探究不同因素对旅客类别的影响程度；最后构建不同类别旅客机舱座位效用函数,根据效用最大化原则判断旅客选择行为。结果表明,旅客在机舱座位选择行为上存在异质性,旅客被划分为三个类别：class1占比38.8%,倾向于选择第一排或紧急通道排的过道位置；class2占比39.8%,倾向于选择靠窗座位；class3占比21.4%,倾向于过道位置。研究将为航空公司进行座位管理及制定座位附加服务费提供理论及决策支持。     

浅析概率统计思想融入数学建模

就如何将概率论与数理统计思想融入数学建模进行探讨,首先简述概率论与数理统计课程特点,及数学建模的发展和应用,其次从教学内容、应用实例等方面进行分析,在此基础上阐述概率统计应用于数学建模的必要性以及实践性,更加说明将概率统计思想融入数学建模是解决很多生活实例的有效方法.     

基于UML的石化MES业务模型

国内石化生产制造执行系统(Manufacturing Execution System即MES)的实施为企业带来了安全和经济的巨大效益,但在实施过程中也发现了一些问题,不同石化企业情况差异导致重复工作量大.问题在于现在已实施的MES可移植性差,没有统一的模式,建立国内石化MES业务模型及统一系统框架显得尤为重要.分析总结了石化MES的业务特点,梳理关键业务流程,用将业务模型拆分为多个模型的方式建立一个通用的业务模型,并用统一建模语言描述,为石化MES统一标准的形成提供参考.     

基于微分方程数值解的灰色预测建模

灰色预测建模方法较多,预测精度主要取决于模型参数的估计,本文给出一种新的思想,将已知的观测值看作是微分方程在不同结点(时间)处的近似解,利用微分方程数值解法推算公式,使用最小二乘法原理,让其局部截断误差的平方和最小来估计未知参数,进而建立灰色预测模型。实例表明,本方法预测精度高。     

统计分析在高校图书馆管理中的作用

本文通过统计在图书馆馆采访、典藏、流通和读者等各环节中的运用，论述了统计分析在高校图书馆科学规范管理中的作用。