Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Breeding preferences in the treefrogs Dryophytes japonicus (Hylidae) in Mongolia

ABSTRACT

When a species occurs over a broad range of climates and landscapes, the breeding ecology of that species is expected to vary locally. Additionally, a basic knowledge of breeding ecology is required before other types of studies may be conducted, such as physiology or conservation. In North East Asia, Dryophytes japonicus is distributed from Japan to Mongolia, where its breeding ecology is unknown. The objectives of this study were to understand the breeding requirements of D. japonicus in this part of its range. We collected data for Dryophytes japonicus at 56 sites located within 23 independent localities in Northern Mongolia during the breeding season 2017. The data collected included habitat type and co-occurring amphibian, fishes and bird species. Our results show that the species prefers circa 70 m long oxbow lakes for breeding, while habitat characteristics, water quality and co-occurring species were not significantly associated with the occurrence of the species. We therefore conclude that D. japonicus is behaviourally plastic in Mongolia, as it is in other portions of its range, and that the species can use several types of environments and co-occur with different species at its breeding sites. Corvus dauuricus was the only bird species significant predicting the occurrence of D. japonicus, likely because of overlapping ecological preferences.     

A latent ability to persist: differentiation in <Emphasis Type="Italic">Toxoplasma gondii</Emphasis>

A critical factor in the transmission and pathogenesis of Toxoplasma gondii is the ability to convert from an acute disease-causing, proliferative stage (tachyzoite), to a chronic, dormant stage (bradyzoite). The conversion of the tachyzoite-containing parasitophorous vacuole membrane into the less permeable bradyzoite cyst wall allows the parasite to persist for years within the host to maximize transmissibility to both primary (felids) and secondary (virtually all other warm-blooded vertebrates) hosts. This review presents our current understanding of the latent stage, including the factors that are important in bradyzoite induction and maintenance. Also discussed are the recent studies that have begun to unravel the mechanisms behind stage switching.     

A new species of Schizopera (Copepoda: Harpacticoida) from Japan,its phylogeny based on the mtCOI gene and comments on the genus Schizoperopsis

The predominantly marine genus Schizopera Sars, 1905 has only two significant inland water species-flocks, one in the ancient African Lake Tanganyika and the other in subterranean waters of Western Australia. Discovery of Schizopera abei sp. nov. from several interstitial locations in the vicinity of the ancient Lake Biwa has wider implications for the study of morphological homoplasies in the genus, as well as for the study of freshwater invasions in harpacticoid copepods. The new Schizopera species belongs to a small group of congeners with a two-segmented endopod of the fourth leg, which used to be recognised as a separate genus, Schizoperopsis Apostolov, 1982. Our reconstructed phylogenies based on the mtCOI partial sequences suggest that this character probably evolved convergently in at least some Schizopera, thus rendering the genus Schizoperopsis polyphyletic. However, almost all basal nodes in our cladograms are weakly supported, which shows limitations of a single-gene approach for reconstructing phylogenetic relationships. The new species is the first member of its genus from Japanese inland waters, and it has no close relatives among extent congeners anywhere in the world. We speculate that its ancestor may have invaded Lake Biwa, and subsequently its surrounding subterranean waters, from brackish areas around central Japan, presumably during a period of high sea water level through its major outflow river. This discovery may provide further support for the hypothesis about the role of ancient lakes as biodiversity pumps for subterranean habitats.

http://zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:1F71F7AD-B7C8-4AD3-BE44-5E1BEE4E2AA8     

BRD7 regulates the insulin-signaling pathway by increasing phosphorylation of GSK3β

Reduced hepatic expression levels of bromodomain-containing protein 7 (BRD7) have been suggested to play a role in the development of glucose intolerance in obesity. However, the molecular mechanism by which BRD7 regulates glucose metabolism has remained unclear. Here, we show that BRD7 increases phosphorylation of glycogen synthase kinase 3β (GSK3β) in response to activation of the insulin receptor-signaling pathway shortly after insulin stimulation and the nutrient-sensing pathway after feeding. BRD7 mediates phosphorylation of GSK3β at the Serine 9 residue and this effect on GSK3β occurs even in the absence of AKT activity. Using both in vitro and in vivo models, we further demonstrate that BRD7 mediates phosphorylation of ribosomal protein S6 kinase (S6K) and leads to increased phosphorylation of the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E-binding protein 1 (4E-BP1) and, therefore, relieves its inhibition of the eukaryotic translation initiation factor 4E (eIF4E). However, the increase in phosphorylation of 4E-BP1 with BRD7 overexpression is blunted in the absence of AKT activity. In addition, using liver-specific BRD7 knockout (LBKO) mice, we show that BRD7 is required for mTORC1 activity on its downstream molecules. These findings show a novel basis for understanding the molecular dynamics of glucose metabolism and suggest the unique function of BRD7 in the regulation of glucose homeostasis.     

Synthesis of the 3D porous carbon-manganese oxide (3D-C@MnO) nanocomposite and its supercapacitor behavior study

A 3D porous carbon-manganese oxide ([email protected]) nanocomposite is successfully synthesized via a thermal plasma deposition method. The chemical bonds and compositions, phase structures, surface morphologies, etc. of as-obtained [email protected] nanocomposite were characterized by the various equipment, such as X-ray diffractometer, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, and electron microscopes. The electrochemical performances of the [email protected] nanocomposite electrode showed a specific capacitance of 780 F g^?1 at a current density of 2 A g^?1 and a capacitance retention rate of 99% after 5000 charge-discharge cycles at a high current density of 10 A g^?1. These excellent capacitive performances may be attributed to the encapsulation of MnO nanoparticles by porous carbon sheets in the [email protected] MnO nanocomposite structure. It is believed that the carbon-encapsulated MnO nanoparticles can be protected from a volume deformation during the charge adsorption/desorption cycle and can be electrically improved by the encapsulated carbon sheets, resulting in better overall capacitive performance. In addition, this study also demonstrates the practical applicability by assembling a supercapacitor using the as-obtained [email protected] nanocomposite to glow a light emitting diode.     

Feature network-driven quadrant mapping for summarizing customer reviews

With the rapid growth of e-commerce, customers increasingly write online reviews of the product they purchase. These customer reviews are one of the most valuable sources of information affecting selection of products or services. Summarizing these customer reviews is becoming an interesting area of research, inspiring researchers to develop a more condensed, concise summarization for users. However, most of the current efforts at summarization are based on general product features without feature’s relationship. As a result, these summaries either ignore feedback from customers or do a poor job of reflecting the opinions expressed in customer reviews. To remedy this summarization shortcoming, we propose a feature network-driven quadrant mapping that captures and incorporates opinions from customer reviews. Our focus is on construction of a feature network, which is based on co-occurrence and sematic similarities, and a quadrant display showing the opinions polarity of feature groups. Moreover, the proposed approach involves clustering similar product features, and thus, it is different from standard text summarization based on abstraction and extraction. The summarized results can help customers better understand the overall opinions about a product.     

Antiinflammatory and analgesic effect of herbal cocktail Hongbaekjeong via inhibition of proinflammatory cytokines and prostaglandin E2 release

Though Hongbaekjeong(HBJ),a hebal mixture of three medicinal plants,has been traditionally used for arthritis and muscular pain,its scientific evidence still remains unclear.Thus,in the present study,analgesic and anti-inflammatory mechanism of HBJ was evaluated in vitro and in vivo.HBJ significantly reduced NO production and prostaglandin E2(PGE2)release and also attenuated the expression of cyclooxygenase 2(COX-2)in lipopolysaccharides(LPS)and interferon(IFN)-c treated RAW 264.7 cells.Furthermore,HBJ abrogated the production of proinflammatory cytokines such as interleukin(IL)1b,IL-6,IL-8 and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1(MCP-1)in LPS and IFN-c treated RAW 264.7 cells.In addition,HBJ significantly decreased the number of writhing syndrome induced by acetic acid,and also increased latency in hot-plate method and tail flick test in mice.Consistently,HBJ significantly reduced the edema volume in the hind paw of the rats with arthritis induced by Freund’s complete adjuvant(FCA)compared to untreated control.Collectively,our findings demonstrate the antiinflammatory and analgesic potential of HBJ via inhibition of proinflammatory cytokines and PGE2 release for treatment of arthritis and muscular pain.