广西南流江流域降雨侵蚀力时空变化特征

降雨是区域土壤侵蚀的主要动力因素之一,估算和分析降雨侵蚀力是区域水土流失治理与评价的基础工作。利用南流江流域内各气象站点1961—2006年的日雨量资料,基于日雨量模型估算降雨侵蚀力,并通过趋势分析、小波分析和Kriging空间插值法,定量分析广西沿海红壤区南流江流域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征与规律。结果显示,1961—2006年间,南流江流域年均降雨侵蚀力为13 935.5 MJ·mm·hm~(-2)·h~(-1)·a~(-1),年均降雨量为1 712.8mm,降雨侵蚀力变化周期约为14a。各年际和时间段间变化差异不明显,降雨侵蚀力年内集中分布在夏季,占比达57.0%,冬季最小,占比3.8%;在空间上,降雨侵蚀力与降雨量分布格局相似,呈现从西南沿海向东北内陆递减的趋势,行政区划上以钦南区和合浦县最大,北流市和玉州区最小。研究结果可为南流江流域土壤侵蚀风险和生态修复治理等工作提供一定的科学依据。     

Influence of the Southern Hemispheric Circulation on East-west Oscillation of the Western Pacific Subtropical High

The western Pacific subtropical high （WPSH） is a large-scale circulation system in the subtropics during the boreal summer. Since 1950＇s, Chinese meteorologists have done a lot of studies about WPSH and recognized its influence on summer rainfall in China. For instance,the north-south movement of WPSH is related to the movement of the rain-belt in eastern China,     

Tree-ring precipitation records from Baiyinaobao,Inner Mongolia since A.D. 1838

Tree rings have attracted the wide attention of geo- environmental and climatic scientists due to its high resolution and accuracy. Lots of important results about climatic change have been obtained for the last 100 to 2000 years when it has no instrumental observation and people are very concerning about it nowadays. For example, by using tree-ring data, temperature, precipitation and drought history have been reconstructed back to hundreds of or thousands of years for different regions in th…     

Temperature and precipitation in Mongolia based on dendroclimatic investigations

Recent tree-ring studies in Mongolia provide evidence of unusual warming that is in agreement with large-scal reconstructed and recorded temperaturec for the Northern Hemisphere and the Arctic.One Mongolian proxy record for temperature extends back over 1000 years and several others are over 350 years in length.Precipitation reconstructions based on thee rings reflect recent increases but also indicate that the increases are within the long-term range of varlations.Spectral analyses of recorded preciplta-tion data and the reconstructions support the hypotheses of quasi-solar periodicity in precipitation variation,previously suggested by others.     

Interannual variability of Mascarene high and Australian high and their influences on summer rainfall over East Asia

Based on the reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR and other observational data,interannual variability of Mascarene high(MH) and Australian high(AH) from 1970 to 1999 is examined.It is shown that interannual variability of MH is dominated by the Antarctic oscillation(AAO),when the circumpolar low in the high southern latitudes deepens,the intensity of MH will be intensified.On the other hand,AH is correlated by AAO as well as EI Nino and South Oscillation(ENSO),the intensity of AH will be intensified when EI Nino occurs.Both correlation analysis and case study demonstrate that summer rainfall over East Asia is closely related to MH and AH.When MH intensifies from boreal spring to summer (i.e.from austral autumn to winter),there is more rainfall over regions from the Yangtze River valley to Japan,in contrast,less rainfall is found over southern China and western Pacific to the east of Taiwan,and most of regions in mid-latitudes of East Asia.Compared with MH,the effect of AH on summer rainfall in East Asia is limited to localized regions,there is more rainfall over southern China with the intensification of AH.The results in this study show that AAO is a strong signal on interannual timescale,which plays an important role in summer rainfall over East Asia.This discovery is of real importance to revealingt the physical mechanism of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon and prediction of summer precipitation in China.     

地下水水位预测的人工神经网络模型研究

地下水系统是一个复杂的随机系统，根据地下水水位与其影响因素之间存在的相关关系，建立了一个基于神经网络的地下水水位预测模型，并将其用于研究区地下水水位的预测，结果表明该方法具有较高的预测精度。     

漯平高速公路沥青路面上面层AC-13型沥青混合料目标配合比设计

漯平高速公路走廊地处河南中南部，属淮河流域，处于南温带半干旱大陆性季风气候区，夏季炎热多雨，冬季寒冷干燥，年平均气温为14.6℃，最高气温极值42．2℃，最低气温极值-15．9℃。年降雨量平均836．6mm，集中在七、八月份，达全年降雨量的60％-70％，暴雨强度较大。因此漯平高速公路的沥青混凝土路面配合比设计，首先要考虑有效的防止水损害。漯平高速公路交通量调查显示，从河南省煤都平顶山往河南东部及安徽、江苏、浙江、上海运煤的大吨位车辆要占相当大的比重，再加上炎热的夏季气候。因此，防止产生车辙也是漯平高速公路沥青混凝土路面配合比设计的主题。为此我们依据规范要求，并考察了周边已建成的高速公路沥青混凝土路面配合比设计及使用情况，以及地产集料，沥青品质进行漯平高速公路沥青混凝土路面配合比设计。     

赣东主汛期模式降水预报检验分析

基于ECMWF模式形势场预报资料及JAPANFAX、GFS、EC-THIN、JMA、T639、NCEP等11家模式降水预报资料,从面雨量、极值降雨量2个方面对2015年江西省抚州市主汛期(6月上旬至7月上旬)区域性暴雨的降水预报结果进行了短期主观检验,对比分析了11种数值模式对江西省抚州市区域性暴雨系统预报的效果。结果表明:1)在面雨量预报方面,EC集合预报、T639模式预报、GFS预报在主汛期的降水预报准确率较好; 2)在极值降雨量的预报方面,EC-THIN、T639模式预报在主汛期的降水预报准确率更好; 3)得到本地化预报准确的模式,再对2016-2017年的强降水天气过程的面雨量和极值降水量进行了预报验证,找出这2个要素的预报思路及指标,为今后主汛期降水起到较好的参考指导意义。     

降雨量贝叶斯分类器的泥石流预测研究

泥石流是一种危害程度很高的地质自然灾害,其预测的准确性有着极其重要的现实意义.为了能够更有效地对泥石流进行预测,提出了一种基于降雨量贝叶斯分类器的泥石流预测方法.首先根据某地域历年来的降雨量和泥石流数据进行学习和训练,然后对贝叶斯分类器的参数进行确定,最后用该分类器对某地近几年的降雨量和泥石流数据进行计算和验证.实验表明,该贝叶斯分类器可以有效地通过降雨量数据来实现对该地域泥石流发生的预测,通过数据库比对确定其正确率达到85%.