Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Is the valid species Synchaeta monopus Plate, 1889 (Rotifera: Monogononta) a product of preparation artefacts?

The morphology of soft-bodied rotifers, including those of Synchaeta spp, can be strongly affected by preparation artefacts including contraction and deformation. The long-standing, valid species Synchaeta monopus is known exclusively from ethanol- or formaldehyde-preserved material and no live specimens of it have ever been described. Although this alone is cause for concern, we could also reproduce unique characteristics diagnostic for this species (e.g. the swollen body and the rudimental foot) by subjecting specimens of Synchaeta pectinata to the preservation conditions under which it was first described. This proxy experiment and comparisons to other Synchaeta species indicate that literature occurrences of S. monopus likely represent preserved and deformed specimens of Synchaeta cecilia or other marine species of Synchaeta, thereby highlighting the importance of thorough morphological investigations of the habitus using live specimens and of features that are unaffected by preservation (e.g. the trophi). We therefore recommend that S. monopus be listed as a species inquirenda until topotypes are examined. Furthermore, in ecological studies including rotifers, where the examination of preserved material is often unavoidable, we stress that light-microscopical images of the habitus and trophi of the specimens minimally be included to facilitate independent verification of the species assignments.     

Asynchronous reproduction in three species of crocodilians in south-eastern Amazonia

We studied reproduction of three species of crocodilians, Paleosuchus trigonatus, Caiman crocodilus and Melanosuchus niger, in the Xingu River, near the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam. The periods of laying and hatching of eggs were estimated for each nest before (2013–2014) and after (2016–2017) the river was dammed and the reservoir was formed. Nesting of the three species occurred between August and December, but was largely asynchronous; nest construction peaked in September for P. trigonatus, October for M. niger and November for C. crocodilus. Reservoir filling had little effect on the laying period of any of the species. Nests of P. trigonatus and M. niger were always within 0–12 m of the bank, whereas nests of C. crocodilus, which nests later in the season when flooding is more likely, were up to 100 m from the nearest water body. There was no relationship between distance from water and the number of eggs in nests, suggesting that larger and presumably more experienced females do not lay at different distances from the bank in any of the species.     

避孕压力为啥由女性承担

<正>也不是没人研究过男性避孕药,只是面对这"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"的精子们,科学家们绞尽脑汁却依旧所获不多。避孕,是男女两个人的事,但在选择避孕方式上,女性安装宫内节育器的比例要比男性做输精管结扎术的比例大得多,市面上的避孕药品也几乎都偏向于女性。像宫内节育器这样的避孕措施对女性的伤害还真不小。最可怕的是有很多女性即使带上宫内节育器还会有怀孕的情况,而这样的情况往往会导致宫外孕。     

The carcinofauna found in stomach contents of the flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans) on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin,Brazil

A total of 3109 crustaceans belonging to 50 taxa distributed in 42 families were found in 117 analysed stomachs of flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans). Samples were obtained in April 2008 by the R/V Gyre using a bottom trawl towed in 12 stations at 14–100 m depth on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin, Brazil. The carcinofauna was analysed and the order Calanoida (Copepoda) found to be the most important item in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence, followed by the order Amphipoda (Peracarida), the infraorder Brachyura (Decapoda), the order Stomatopoda and the subclass Myodocopa (Ostracoda). In the order Calanoida, the species Pontellopsis cf. villosa (Pontellidae) represented 98.04% of total crustacean abundance. The diet of Dactylopterus volitans varied according to fish size, with higher diversity of Crustacea at smaller size classes, decreasing in larger fishes. A similar pattern regarding depth was obtained, with greater diversity of taxa in gurnard stomachs caught at shallower depths. Flying gurnard is considered a generalized carnivore of invertebrates, eating mobile macrobenthic organisms, such as crustaceans, and its diet varies with its life stage, without any specific group as its main food source.     

Parasite community of the golden cownose ray Rhinoptera steindachneri Evermann and Jenkins 1891 (Chondrichthyes: Myliobatidae), in Acapulco Bay,Guerrero, Mexico

The parasite community of the ray Rhinoptera steindachneri from Acapulco Bay was examined and quantified; analyses were based on the sex of the host and the date of sampling. A total of 171 specimens of R. steindachneri were examined during July–August of 2010, and May and July of 2012. Twenty-one species of parasites were found: three species of Monogenea; eight adult and one larval species of Cestoda; one larval species of Nematoda; five species of Copepoda; two species of Isopoda; and one species of Hirudinea. Cestodes had the greatest species richness (43% of the total species), followed by the copepods (24%). Two species of cestode, Glyphobothrium sp. and Rhinebothrium sp., were collected only from adult rays. At the component community level, species richness showed statistically significant variation between 13 and 16 species, which is similar to previous reports for other species of rays. The parasite component communities and infracommunities of R. steindachneri exhibited similar patterns: high species number and low numerical dominance by a particular species of parasite. The differences of body size of male vs. female rays, and a change in diet and feeding behaviour with the age of R. steindachneri, are likely important factors in the structuring of their parasite communities.     

Space use by two arboreal rodent species in a Neotropical cloud forest

Studying animal space use patterns can help increase our understating of ecological processes such as competition and community dynamics. To quantify space and habitat use in an isolated and patchy cloud forest community in Mexico, we evaluate the vertical stratification, home range and habitat selection of two arboreal rodents: Habromys schmidlyi and Reithrodontomys microdon. Using live-traps at ground level and different forest strata, we radio-equipped nine individuals of H. schmidlyi and seven of R. microdon, and evaluated fine-scale space use and broad-scale habitat selection between cloud forest and oak forest. We found an average home range of 0.24 ha for R. microdon males and 0.72 ha for females, with a preference for higher canopy in the cloud forest. For H. schmidlyi the home range was 0.83 ha for males and 0.29 ha for females, with a preference for the understory level in the cloud forest. Home range is three-dimensional for these rodents, so we estimate that on average, individuals of both species used eight trees in the time they were tracked. We characterised the vegetation at the trap sites, and used recursive partitioning to relate the presence of different plants with the probability of finding these two species and Peromyscus aztecus, a third rodent species also present in the area and considered in our analysis of habitat use. The highest probability of finding R. microdon (96%) was related to the presence of Brachythecium occidentale and Renauldia mexicana, while H. schmidlyi (95%) was found in close proximity to Fabronia ciliaris and Everniastrum. We highlight the importance of arboreal trapping in biodiversity assessments, and the role of arboreal rodents in maintaining tropical forest ecosystems. We suggest that these rodent species could avoid or reduce competition by using the vertical strata differentially, and that H. schmidlyi and R. microdon can be biological indicators for cloud forest management and conservation.     

Integrative taxonomy at the nexus of population divergence and speciation in insular speckled rattlesnakes

ABSTRACT

We describe two diminutive species of rattlesnakes (genus Crotalus) from small nearshore islands off the coast of Baja California in the western Gulf of California, Mexico. In order to test the hypothesis that some island populations represent cohesive species entities, we applied linear discriminant analysis and uniform validation procedures to multiple classes of intrinsic trait data. By using previously recognised species to establish a threshold for species recognition, we found that assignment of specimens to either new species was as probable as with other established rattlesnake species within the speckled rattlesnake (Crotalus mitchellii) complex. We also found that assignment of specimens from other island populations was not as probable as for the established species, and these populations are referable to C. pyrrhus. The species endemic to Piojo Island is most closely related to other island and mainland populations of C. pyrrhus whereas the species endemic to Cabeza de Caballo Island is apparently most closely related to C. angelensis, a nearby island endemic of large body size. However, patterns from both mitochondrial and nuclear phylogenies, and phenotypic variation, indicate that evolutionary trajectories of both of these species have been influenced by introgression from C. angelensis. We speculate that collective evidence based on contrasting patterns of nuclear and mitochondrial evolution supports a hybrid origin of the species from Cabeza de Caballo Island followed by exceptionally rapid mitochondrial evolution. Consistent with small body size, both species show a reduction in various scale counts relative to other species of the C. mitchellii species complex, suggesting that dwarfism is not simply a plastic response to insular conditions.

http://www.zoobank.org/urn.lsid:zoobank.org:pub:FBC8A11B-04A3-4231-85CA-3972DF5A42FF     

Description of the aberrant Leptopilina lasallei n. sp., with an updated phylogeny of Leptopilina Förster (Hymenoptera: Figitidae: Eucoilinae)

ABSTRACT

In the search for native Asian parasitoids of Drosophila suzukii, the notorious spotted-wing Drosophila (SWD), an odd new species of Eucoilinae was discovered. Leptopilina lasallei sp. nov. is herein described and diagnosed relative to other eucoilines associated with drosophilid hosts. Morphologically, L. lasallei is somewhat aberrant within Leptopilina; phylogenetically, L. lasallei is sister group to the core Leptopilina. In the process of investigating L. lasallei, a de novo molecular phylogeny of Leptopilina was generated and is included here. The integrated approach used for the characterisation of L. lasallei, and the resulting phylogeny of Leptopilina, produced data useful to select parasitoid species for SWD biological control.http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:402D504A-4616-4524-85D7-1C13A6276F06 http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:act:402D504A-4616-4524-85D7-1C13A6276F06