Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

Is the valid species Synchaeta monopus Plate, 1889 (Rotifera: Monogononta) a product of preparation artefacts?

The morphology of soft-bodied rotifers, including those of Synchaeta spp, can be strongly affected by preparation artefacts including contraction and deformation. The long-standing, valid species Synchaeta monopus is known exclusively from ethanol- or formaldehyde-preserved material and no live specimens of it have ever been described. Although this alone is cause for concern, we could also reproduce unique characteristics diagnostic for this species (e.g. the swollen body and the rudimental foot) by subjecting specimens of Synchaeta pectinata to the preservation conditions under which it was first described. This proxy experiment and comparisons to other Synchaeta species indicate that literature occurrences of S. monopus likely represent preserved and deformed specimens of Synchaeta cecilia or other marine species of Synchaeta, thereby highlighting the importance of thorough morphological investigations of the habitus using live specimens and of features that are unaffected by preservation (e.g. the trophi). We therefore recommend that S. monopus be listed as a species inquirenda until topotypes are examined. Furthermore, in ecological studies including rotifers, where the examination of preserved material is often unavoidable, we stress that light-microscopical images of the habitus and trophi of the specimens minimally be included to facilitate independent verification of the species assignments.     

Asynchronous reproduction in three species of crocodilians in south-eastern Amazonia

We studied reproduction of three species of crocodilians, Paleosuchus trigonatus, Caiman crocodilus and Melanosuchus niger, in the Xingu River, near the Belo Monte hydroelectric dam. The periods of laying and hatching of eggs were estimated for each nest before (2013–2014) and after (2016–2017) the river was dammed and the reservoir was formed. Nesting of the three species occurred between August and December, but was largely asynchronous; nest construction peaked in September for P. trigonatus, October for M. niger and November for C. crocodilus. Reservoir filling had little effect on the laying period of any of the species. Nests of P. trigonatus and M. niger were always within 0–12 m of the bank, whereas nests of C. crocodilus, which nests later in the season when flooding is more likely, were up to 100 m from the nearest water body. There was no relationship between distance from water and the number of eggs in nests, suggesting that larger and presumably more experienced females do not lay at different distances from the bank in any of the species.     

避孕压力为啥由女性承担

<正>也不是没人研究过男性避孕药,只是面对这"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"的精子们,科学家们绞尽脑汁却依旧所获不多。避孕,是男女两个人的事,但在选择避孕方式上,女性安装宫内节育器的比例要比男性做输精管结扎术的比例大得多,市面上的避孕药品也几乎都偏向于女性。像宫内节育器这样的避孕措施对女性的伤害还真不小。最可怕的是有很多女性即使带上宫内节育器还会有怀孕的情况,而这样的情况往往会导致宫外孕。     

Intrinsically disordered proteins in crowded milieu: when chaos prevails within the cellular gumbo

Effects of macromolecular crowding on structural and functional properties of ordered proteins, their folding, interactability, and aggregation are well documented. Much less is known about how macromolecular crowding might affect structural and functional behaviour of intrinsically disordered proteins (IDPs) or intrinsically disordered protein regions (IDPRs). To fill this gap, this review represents a systematic analysis of the available literature data on the behaviour of IDPs/IDPRs in crowded environment. Although it was hypothesized that, due to the excluded-volume effects present in crowded environments, IDPs/IDPRs would invariantly fold in the presence of high concentrations of crowding agents or in the crowded cellular environment, accumulated data indicate that, based on their response to the presence of crowders, IDPs/IDPRs can be grouped into three major categories, foldable, non-foldable, and unfoldable. This is because natural cellular environment is not simply characterized by the presence of high concentration of “inert” macromolecules, but represents an active milieu, components of which are engaged in direct physical interactions and soft interactions with target proteins. Some of these interactions with cellular components can cause (local) unfolding of query proteins. In other words, since crowding can cause both folding and unfolding of an IDP or its regions, the outputs of the placing of a query protein to the crowded environment would depend on the balance between these two processes. As a result, and because of the spatio-temporal heterogeneity in structural organization of IDPs, macromolecular crowding can differently affect structures of different IDPs. Recent studies indicate that some IDPs are able to undergo liquid–liquid-phase transitions leading to the formation of various proteinaceous membrane-less organelles (PMLOs). Although interiors of such PMLOs are self-crowded, being characterized by locally increased concentrations of phase-separating IDPs, these IDPs are minimally foldable or even non-foldable at all (at least within the physiologically safe time-frame of normal PMLO existence).     

Protein kinase D inhibitor CRT0066101 suppresses bladder cancer growth in vitro and xenografts via blockade of the cell cycle at G2/M

The protein kinase D (PKD) family of proteins are important regulators of tumor growth, development, and progression. CRT0066101, an inhibitor of PKD, has antitumor activity in multiple types of carcinomas. However, the effect and mechanism of CRT0066101 in bladder cancer are not understood. In the present study, we show that CRT0066101 suppressed the proliferation and migration of four bladder cancer cell lines in vitro. We also demonstrate that CRT0066101 blocked tumor growth in a mouse flank xenograft model of bladder cancer. To further assess the role of PKD in bladder carcinoma, we examined the three PKD isoforms and found that PKD2 was highly expressed in eight bladder cancer cell lines and in urothelial carcinoma tissues from the TCGA database, and that short hairpin RNA (shRNA)-mediated knockdown of PKD2 dramatically reduced bladder cancer growth and invasion in vitro and in vivo, suggesting that the effect of the compound in bladder cancer is mediated through inhibition of PKD2. This notion was corroborated by demonstrating that the levels of phospho-PKD2 were markedly decreased in CRT0066101-treated bladder tumor explants. Furthermore, our cell cycle analysis by flow cytometry revealed that CRT0066101 treatment or PKD2 silencing arrested bladder cancer cells at the G2/M phase, the arrest being accompanied by decreases in the levels of cyclin B1, CDK1 and phospho-CDK1 (Thr161) and increases in the levels of p27^Kip1 and phospho-CDK1 (Thr14/Tyr15). Moreover, CRT0066101 downregulated the expression of Cdc25C, which dephosphorylates/activates CDK1, but enhanced the activity of the checkpoint kinase Chk1, which inhibits CDK1 by phosphorylating/inactivating Cdc25C. Finally, CRT0066101 was found to elevate the levels of Myt1, Wee1, phospho-Cdc25C (Ser216), Gadd45α, and 14-3-3 proteins, all of which reduce the CDK1-cyclin B1 complex activity. These novel findings suggest that CRT0066101 suppresses bladder cancer growth by inhibiting PKD2 through induction of G2/M cell cycle arrest, leading to the blockade of cell cycle progression.     

The carcinofauna found in stomach contents of the flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans) on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin,Brazil

A total of 3109 crustaceans belonging to 50 taxa distributed in 42 families were found in 117 analysed stomachs of flying gurnard (Dactylopterus volitans). Samples were obtained in April 2008 by the R/V Gyre using a bottom trawl towed in 12 stations at 14–100 m depth on the continental shelf of the Campos Basin, Brazil. The carcinofauna was analysed and the order Calanoida (Copepoda) found to be the most important item in terms of relative abundance and frequency of occurrence, followed by the order Amphipoda (Peracarida), the infraorder Brachyura (Decapoda), the order Stomatopoda and the subclass Myodocopa (Ostracoda). In the order Calanoida, the species Pontellopsis cf. villosa (Pontellidae) represented 98.04% of total crustacean abundance. The diet of Dactylopterus volitans varied according to fish size, with higher diversity of Crustacea at smaller size classes, decreasing in larger fishes. A similar pattern regarding depth was obtained, with greater diversity of taxa in gurnard stomachs caught at shallower depths. Flying gurnard is considered a generalized carnivore of invertebrates, eating mobile macrobenthic organisms, such as crustaceans, and its diet varies with its life stage, without any specific group as its main food source.     

Parasite community of the golden cownose ray Rhinoptera steindachneri Evermann and Jenkins 1891 (Chondrichthyes: Myliobatidae), in Acapulco Bay,Guerrero, Mexico

The parasite community of the ray Rhinoptera steindachneri from Acapulco Bay was examined and quantified; analyses were based on the sex of the host and the date of sampling. A total of 171 specimens of R. steindachneri were examined during July–August of 2010, and May and July of 2012. Twenty-one species of parasites were found: three species of Monogenea; eight adult and one larval species of Cestoda; one larval species of Nematoda; five species of Copepoda; two species of Isopoda; and one species of Hirudinea. Cestodes had the greatest species richness (43% of the total species), followed by the copepods (24%). Two species of cestode, Glyphobothrium sp. and Rhinebothrium sp., were collected only from adult rays. At the component community level, species richness showed statistically significant variation between 13 and 16 species, which is similar to previous reports for other species of rays. The parasite component communities and infracommunities of R. steindachneri exhibited similar patterns: high species number and low numerical dominance by a particular species of parasite. The differences of body size of male vs. female rays, and a change in diet and feeding behaviour with the age of R. steindachneri, are likely important factors in the structuring of their parasite communities.     

Space use by two arboreal rodent species in a Neotropical cloud forest

Studying animal space use patterns can help increase our understating of ecological processes such as competition and community dynamics. To quantify space and habitat use in an isolated and patchy cloud forest community in Mexico, we evaluate the vertical stratification, home range and habitat selection of two arboreal rodents: Habromys schmidlyi and Reithrodontomys microdon. Using live-traps at ground level and different forest strata, we radio-equipped nine individuals of H. schmidlyi and seven of R. microdon, and evaluated fine-scale space use and broad-scale habitat selection between cloud forest and oak forest. We found an average home range of 0.24 ha for R. microdon males and 0.72 ha for females, with a preference for higher canopy in the cloud forest. For H. schmidlyi the home range was 0.83 ha for males and 0.29 ha for females, with a preference for the understory level in the cloud forest. Home range is three-dimensional for these rodents, so we estimate that on average, individuals of both species used eight trees in the time they were tracked. We characterised the vegetation at the trap sites, and used recursive partitioning to relate the presence of different plants with the probability of finding these two species and Peromyscus aztecus, a third rodent species also present in the area and considered in our analysis of habitat use. The highest probability of finding R. microdon (96%) was related to the presence of Brachythecium occidentale and Renauldia mexicana, while H. schmidlyi (95%) was found in close proximity to Fabronia ciliaris and Everniastrum. We highlight the importance of arboreal trapping in biodiversity assessments, and the role of arboreal rodents in maintaining tropical forest ecosystems. We suggest that these rodent species could avoid or reduce competition by using the vertical strata differentially, and that H. schmidlyi and R. microdon can be biological indicators for cloud forest management and conservation.