灰色理论在股市预测中的应用

灰色理论是上世纪八十年代发展起来的一门新学科,已经被成功地应用到经济、控制、工程等领域中。本文将灰色GM(1,1)模型应用于对股市的预测,并将所得值与由RBF网络预测的值进行线性组合以提高预测的精度。     

GM(1,1)模型改进算法及其应用研究

原始序列规律、一次累加生成序列光滑度及其初始值是影响GM（1,1）模型预测精度的主要原因.为了获得较高的预测精度,在原有改善序列光滑度方法的基础上,给出一种基于加权和最小平均相对误差的灰色改进算法.该改进算法不但能够提高拟合及预测精度,而且拓展了传统GM（1,1）预测模型的适用范围.将传统方法与改进算法应用于实际设备故障诊断和寿命预测,结果表明,改进算法对于机械设备的预知维修具有较好的参考价值.     

基于模糊最近邻聚类学习算法的海水藻类繁殖状态预测

为了预报海洋赤潮等灾害的发生,需要监测海水中藻类的繁殖状况.通过建立针对海水中叶绿素a浓度状态的预测模型间接预测海水中藻类的繁殖生长状况.运用基于数据的模糊最近邻聚类学习算法对采样数据进行聚类处理,基于最优模糊逻辑系统建立了针对海水叶绿素a浓度状态的预测模型.根据采样数据的特点和降低模型阶次的实际需求,设计了改进的模糊...     

基于案例推理和数据融合的煤与瓦斯突出预测

为了实现对煤与瓦斯突出快速、准确和动态预测,确保煤矿安全生产,考虑影响煤与瓦斯突出多种因素,提出了一种基于案例推理和数据融合技术的煤与瓦斯突出预测方法.利用基于均值的分批估计融合方法对判别煤与瓦斯突出指标的多传感器数据进行处理以获取更为准确、可靠的数据以提高预测准确性,以获得的多种判别煤与瓦斯突出指标数据为输入利用案例...     

Predicting the spread of nuclear radiation from the damaged Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

Japan suffered a M9.0 earthquake and massive tsunami on March 11, 2011, which seriously damaged the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant and caused a nuclear crisis. The spread of nuclear radiation from the power plant through the atmosphere and ocean was predicted with a short-term climate forecasting model and an ocean circulation model under some idealized assumptions. If nuclear matter were leaked in the near-ground layer of 992 hPa, the climate model results show that the nuclear radiation would cover North America 10 days after the initial leakage, with the concentration at the forefront dramatically reduced to 10 millionths of the initial model concentration at the source. The radiation would span Europe in 15 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 30 days. If the initial leakage was assumed to occur in the layer 5000-m above the ground, the radiation would cover Europe in 10 days and cover much of the Northern Hemisphere in 15 days. Moreover, under the assumption that the nuclear matter leaked in the 10000-m layer, the radiation would affect much of China after 10 days. The ocean circulation model indicates that the nuclear material would be slowly transported northeast of Fukushima and reach 150°E in 50 days, and the nuclear debris in the ocean would be confined to a narrow band. Compared with the spread in the ocean, the area affected by leaked nuclear radiation in the atmosphere would be very large. Atmospheric monitors in North America and Europe will be helpful for estimating the effect in China of any leaked nuclear material.     

Carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions and their evolutions of gases generated by herbaceous swamp peat at different thermal maturity stages

Coalbed methane (CBM) accumulation models include continuous gas accumulation and staged gas accumulation.However,studied on the geochemical characteristics and indices to evaluate staged accumulation CBM are lacking.This study for the first time obtained the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of methane and ethane generated at different evolution stages using thermal simulation of samples prepared by treating an herbaceous swamp peat at different temperatures.The results showed that the carbon isotopic compositions of methane and ethane were obviously affected by the thermal evolution level of the starting sample,while the hydrogen isotopic compositions were closely related to the maturity of gases.The carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of gases generated by coal-forming organic matter with Ro values from 1.2%,1.7%,2.4%,3.2% and 3.7% to 5.2% were determinated.The relationship between Ro values and the carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of gases generated by coal-forming organic matter at different evolution stages as well as the carbon or hydrogen isotopic relationships between methane and ethane were established.The results provide a scientific basis for studying the genesis of CBM generated at different maturity intervals and understanding the geochemical characteristics of staged accumulation CBM.These results were applied to a case study on CBM from the southern Qinshui basin,and it was found that the CBM accumulated after the Middle Jurassic and was characteristic of staged gas accumulation.This is consistent with the result of geological studies,and further showed that the results of thermal simulation experiments are very important for evaluating the genesis of natural CBM.     

基于GIS的昭通市烤烟种植动态气候区划评估(预测)研究

首先构建了昭通市烤烟种植气候区划定量评价指标体系和评价方法,然后探讨了用多元线性回归结合GIS技术的气候要素空间小网格插值的问题,突破了传统气候变化影响研究总以离散点或区域平均来表达的局限,启动了面上气候波动变化影响的业务服务应用.研究了烤烟种植动态气候区划评估(预测)方法,力图把传统作物气候区划的功能从空间静态性评价提升到空间+时间动态性评估(或预评估)水平,着力反映地方立体气候和气候变化对烟草业的影响.显著提高了烤烟气候区划的生产实用指导性和应用价值.     

环渤海地区云量的动力过程相似预报方法

利用环渤海35个台站1954-2002年近50年逐日平均总云量和低云量的观测资料,统计关注区域内少云、中等云量、多云的发生情况;再用同期NCEP再分析资料,计算出预报关注区域内与不同云量形成相关性较好的各种不同要素的平均场,依据动力过程相似原理,利用T213数值预报产品相邻24h预报场,以域块距离为依据,建立云量预报模型,制作日平均总云量和低云量4～9天的预报.经过2003-2007年的预报结果与实况资料的对比检验表明:依据动力过程相似方法建立的云量预报模型对日平均总云量和日平均低云量的预报准确率较高;日平均低云量预报准确率要高于日平均总云量;冬半年预报准确率高于夏半年;天空出现少云的预报准确率高于中等云量和多云的情况.     

多层次降尺度方法对安徽省月降水量预测的研究

 利用1961～2004年多层次的NCEP环流资料初选出与台站月降水量的显著相关区,通过最优子集回归模型对各初选因子进行筛选和组合,形成了安徽省35个台站的月降水量回归模型,并分别利用NCEP资料和月动力延伸模式环流预报作为输入场对2005～2009年安徽省月降水量进行了回报.结果表明,该降尺度模型包含高低层的多种资料,各因子组合起来可以从统计上反映出一些影响降水的环流配置型,较传统的仅用500hPa资料的降尺度模型内容更为丰富.从回报的效果来看,预测值与实况值平均距平符号一致率为63%,PS评分为75分,其中对涝月的预测效果要好于旱月.     

京津冀地区耕地变化分析及未来趋势预测

利用京津冀地区耕地面积统计资料为基础,采用耕地资源变化率计算方法和灰色预测法,分析和预测了该地区耕地的变化及趋势.研究结果表明:1985-2007年京津冀地区耕地总面积呈波动下降趋势,总共减少924.3 k hm2,多年平均变化率为-0.59%.耕地的三种类型之中,旱地和水田面积几乎年年减少,多年平均变化率分别为-3.57%和-0.73%,而水浇地的面积在大部分年份都有所增加,多年平均变化率为0.85%.2020年,京津冀地区的耕地总量将从2007年的6 531.61 k hm2减小至6 164.4 k hm2,耕地总面积平均每年减少0.44%,即28.7 k hm2.旱地和水田将继续保持较高的减少率,平均每年分别减少2.57%和0.84%.而水浇地的预测结果为2007年至2020年间每年稍增0.17%.在未来的十几年中,尽管耕地减少的速率减缓,但是京津冀地区耕地保护的压力依然很大.