龙门山汶川地震特征及构造运动学初析

2008年5月12日发生的龙门山汶川地震具有震级巨大、波及面宽、震中成线性展布的特点.根据震后构造地质调查,引发本次地震的断层活动主要表现为幕式斜冲与逆冲,其运动学特征是:断裂具有先走滑后逆冲,总体表现以逆冲运动为主.根据断裂面多期擦痕特征确定,断层活动主要为三期幕式活动,第一期为逆冲走滑,第二期为逆冲冲断,第三期为走滑逆冲.由地震破裂构造确定的主压应力方向为北西一南东方向.     

Interseismic and coseismic displacements of the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake inferred from leveling measurements

By using precise leveling data observed between 1985 and 2010 across the south section of the Longmenshan fault zone, and eliminating the coseismic displacements caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, the interseismic vertical deformation field was obtained. The result shows that the Lushan region, located between the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault （front range of the Long- menshan fault） and the Xinkaidian fault （south section of the Dayi fault）, is situated in the intersection zone of positive and negative vertical deformation gradient zones, indicating that this zone was locked within 25 years before the Lushan earthquake. Based on leveling data across the rupture zone surveyed between 2010 and 2013, and by eliminating the vertical deformation within 3 years before the earthquake, the coseismic vertical displacement was derived. The coseismic vertical displacement for the benchmark DD35, which is closest to the epicenter, is up to 198.4 mm （with respect to MY165A）. The coseismic dis- placement field revealed that the northwest region （hanging wall） moved upwards in comparison with the southeastern region （foot wall）, suggesting that the seismogenic fault mainly underwent thrust faulting. By comparing the coseismic and interseismic vertical deformation fields, it was found that the mechanisms of this earthquake are consistent with the elastic rebound theory; the elastic strain energy （displacement deficit） accumulated before the Lu- shan earthquake was released during this quake.     

Near-field surface displacement and permanent deformation induced by the Alaska Mw 7.5 earthquake determined by high-rate real-time ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions

High-rate GPS data from the United States continuously operating reference stations in the Alaska region are processed using the recently developed precise point positioning （PPP） technique. The traditional PPP technique does not fix ambiguities into their integers because these ambiguities do not have an integer nature when data from a single receiver, as well as precise orbit and clock corrections, are used. Additional corrections, i.e., uncalibrated phase delay （UPD）, are needed to fix integer ambiguities and consequently improve positioning accuracy. This study proposes a methodology to compute for wide-lane and L2 （the second L-band frequency） UPDs using the geometry-based model and subsequently applies these parameters to the computation for ambiguity-fixed solutions. The instantaneous displacements of near-field sites, as well as the permanent deformations after the earthquake, are therefore obtained for the January 5, 2013, Alaska earthquake. The real-time performance of PPP solutions are assessed by considering realistic data latency and data interval of corrections. Ambiguity-fixed solutions are compared with ambiguity-float ones. The comparison shows that the positioning accuracy can be improved significantly when the ambiguities are fixed correctly. The solutions using the real-time corrections are also compared with those using post-processing corrections, i.e., Center for Orbit Determination in Europe final orbit and clock. Although the accuracy is somehow degraded because of the data latency and data interval, the real-time results are satisfactory for use in monitoring the small-scale deformation （1-2 cm） caused by the Alaska earthquake. In addition, the kinematic ambiguity-fixed PPP solutions for 7 days around the earthquake are calculated to obtain permanent pre- and post-earthquake deformations. The deformations computed from real-time and post-processing corrections do not appear to be significantly different.     

利用NOAA数据分析地震前总电子含量异常

利用美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）发布的电离层总电子含量（TEC）数据,采用从点到面的分析方法,分析了墨西哥2012年3月20日和4月12日两次地震前的TEC数据,发现两次地震前均出现TEC异常,具体表现为：以点计算的震中TEC波形图显示3月20日震前的3月7日、3月15日和3月18日出现TEC异常,4月12日震前的4月4日和4月11日出现TEC异常;以面计算的TEC分布显示震中周边区域在震前出现异于其他地区的TEC增大或减少.     

钢制储液罐的Lyapunov特征指数及弹性动力失稳

为全面评估钢制储液罐在地震激励下的动力稳定性能,由压力-位移格式的流固耦合模型建立等效动力扰动方程,采用时变几何刚度矩阵参数化结构域抗力,修正广义扰动变量并实时调整向量模长,进而步进求解动态Lyapunov特征指数,分别在简谐地面加速度与地震激励下对某10万m3油罐进行动力稳定分析.结果表明:上述Lyapunov方法确定的动力不稳定域与Floquet方法基本一致;Lyapunov方法与B-R准则法计算的临界地震动峰值存在10%左右的最大相对误差;抗风圈有助于抑制动力不稳定域并提高临界地震动峰值.上述Lyapunov方法适用于二阶动力系统,可考虑地震持时影响且不限制地震波特性,大幅降低了动力稳定分析的计算成本并能满足工程应用精度.     

大跨度连续刚构桥抗震性能分析与改造策略

结合一座大跨度连续刚构桥实例,分析了在地震作用下该种桥梁的地震反应,通过改造桥梁形式,减小结构地震力.分析表明,刚构桥的基本周期较短,地震力较大;改造成采用减隔震支座的连续梁桥后,墩柱的地震力明显下降,桩基的轴力也下降明显,但是对于桩基的弯矩减小不大,但是整体上改造后对抗震有利.     

斜拉桥H型混凝土桥塔的有限延性

由于塔梁之间的横向约束,在强地震动作用下斜拉桥的桥塔将产生较大的横向动力响应,为了满足规范规定的抗震性能目标,则须采用较大的桥塔配筋率.同时,桥塔基于弹性设计的思路,还会导致下部结构的工程量增加,其工程经济性值得商榷.为此采用IDA(incremental dynamic analysis)方法研究斜拉桥桥塔横桥向塑性变形分布规律和破坏模式.通过有限元分析和拟静力试验相结合的手段,对H型混凝土桥塔横向破坏机理进行验证,确定所要达到的性能目标,并得到与之对应的可以量化的性能指标.为斜拉桥的有限延性抗震设计提供理论和试验基础.     

基于AETA电磁扰动对九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震的研究

2017年8月8日中国四川省九寨沟县Ms 7.0级地震前, 在震源200 km范围内的九寨沟、松潘、平武、青川、茂县和汶川布设AETA系统的6个监测台。采用窗口为30日的滑动主成分分析(principal component analysis, PCA)方法, 对6个台站的电磁扰动进行特征分析, 探讨九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震前后AETA系统观测的电磁场变化特征, 并由此提出一种新的临震特征, 即AETA电磁数据经滑动PCA方法处理后得到的“条带异常”。结果显示: 1) 除九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震发震当日, 九寨沟监测台于震前5日至震后15日, 每天在同一时段(5:00 am—6:00 am)出现异常点, 形成“异常条带”, 异常程度在震前大体上呈递增变化, 震后大体上呈递减变化; 2) 震源附近其他监测台也存在异常点, 但发布零散且异常程度较小; 3) 九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震“异常条带”消失后的两个月内, 未出现新的“异常条带”, 且无强震发生。     

多维数据驱动粮食供应链危害物风险综合评价

为科学合理评价重金属、真菌毒素、农药残留和微生物等危害物在粮食供应链各个环节中的综合风险,在分析全国26个省份粮食加工品抽检数据及其他多维度数据基础上,兼顾定量指标和定性指标优势,从统计特性、抽检特性和调研特性三种互补角度构建多维层次风险指标体系,实现大量异构数据向量化风险指标转变;继而应用关联规则挖掘各指标间内在关系,实现各指标权重分配,构建风险综合评价方法,实现多维数据驱动的粮食供应链危害物风险评价和优先程度排序。希望为监管部门制定有针对性的抽检策略、确立优先监管领域和分配风险监管资源提供科学依据。     

Earthquake Disaster Simulation for an Urban Area, with GIS, CAD,FEA, and VR Integration

For a disaster whose scale includes an urban area, it is difficult to be studied with physical experiments. Numerical simulation is found a very efficient tool for such problem. This paper aims at developing an integrated urban earthquake simulation system (UESS) that uses GIS as the model source, CAD as the model generating tools, FEA as damage prediction, and virtual reality (VR) as the post-process platform. An automatic procedure was developed to buildup the 3D structural model of buildings in an urban area, as well as to simulate their earthquake performances, from the digital map of GIS. And the simulation results were presented in an integrated interface with a GIS view-port for position finding, a CAD view-port for 3D structural damage identification, and a VR view-port for 3D dynamic structural vibration display. An urban example with more than 7000 buildings was select to demonstrate the feasibility of proposed system.