Forecasting key US macroeconomic variables with a factor‐augmented Qual VAR

In this paper, we first extract factors from a monthly dataset of 130 macroeconomic and financial variables. These extracted factors are then used to construct a factor‐augmented qualitative vector autoregressive (FA‐Qual VAR) model to forecast industrial production growth, inflation, the Federal funds rate, and the term spread based on a pseudo out‐of‐sample recursive forecasting exercise over an out‐of‐sample period of 1980:1 to 2014:12, using an in‐sample period of 1960:1 to 1979:12. Short‐, medium‐, and long‐run horizons of 1, 6, 12, and 24 months ahead are considered. The forecast from the FA‐Qual VAR is compared with that of a standard VAR model, a Qual VAR model, and a factor‐augmented VAR (FAVAR). In general, we observe that the FA‐Qual VAR tends to perform significantly better than the VAR, Qual VAR and FAVAR (barring some exceptions relative to the latter). In addition, we find that the Qual VARs are also well equipped in forecasting probability of recessions when compared to probit models.     

实物期权视角的CAPM有效性检验

实物期权对资产定价的非线性影响会导致本质为线性定价的CAPM模型失效.本文以沪深A股2000-2014年间1503家上市公司为样本,利用市值规模、账面市值比、资本支出和总资产回报四个企业特征变量作为实物期权的代理变量,分别对个股贝塔和预期超额收益率进行实物期权调整,给出了经实物期权调整后CAPM有效的证据;而且,较之市值规模和账面市值比,资本支出和总资产回报更加能够反映实物期权对CAPM有效性的影响.此外,实物期权调整对CAPM有效性的影响对处于生命周期早期阶段的企业、高科技行业以及对股权分置改革和次贷危机后的子样本更为明显.     

长江上游铜锣峡河段卵砾石推移质输沙规律研究

西部山区河段具有水面比降大、河床推移质粒径粗、糙率较大等特点,因此西部山区河段的水沙特性与平原河流差异明显,采用现有的推移质输沙公式来预测山区河段的泥沙输移情况存在较大误差。针对这一现象,基于爱因斯坦均匀沙无量纲输沙公式,考虑到推移质周围床沙对其遮蔽影响,以V/Uc=1为推移质起动临界状态建立了输沙率计算公式,最后以长江上游铜锣峡河段为研究对象,根据近二十年实测的水沙数据,将新计算式与多个经典公式进行精度比较,从计算结果来看,在预测大比降卵砾石山区河流时,新建立的计算式计算精度更高,能更好的反映其输沙规律。     

基于解释结构模型和MICMAC的城市交通拥堵问题分析

通过对城市交通拥堵现状的调查研究,从管理、设施和交通参与者3个方面归纳出造成城市交通拥堵的11个主要因素,建立了解释结构模型,分析了各因素间的层级关系,通过交叉影响矩阵相乘法(matriced impacts corises-multiplication appliance classment, MICMAC)分析对影响因素进行了分类,进一步分析了各因素对交通拥堵的影响,找到了造成城市交通拥堵的表层、中层和底层影响因素,为缓解城市交通拥堵问题提供了可供借鉴的依据.     

Incorporating textual and management factors into financial distress prediction: A comparative study of machine learning methods

Financial distress prediction (FDP) has been widely considered as a promising approach to reducing financial losses. While financial information comprises the traditional factors involved in FDP, nonfinancial factors have also been examined in recent studies. In light of this, the purpose of this study is to explore the integrated factors and multiple models that can improve the predictive performance of FDP models. This study proposes an FDP framework to reveal the financial distress features of listed Chinese companies, incorporating financial, management, and textual factors, and evaluating the prediction performance of multiple models in different time spans. To develop this framework, this study employs the wrapper-based feature selection method to extract valuable features, and then constructs multiple single classifiers, ensemble classifiers, and deep learning models in order to predict financial distress. The experiment results indicate that management and textual factors can supplement traditional financial factors in FDP, especially textual ones. This study also discovers that integrated factors collected 4 years prior to the predicted benchmark year enable a more accurate prediction, and the ensemble classifiers and deep learning models developed can achieve satisfactory FDP performance. This study makes a novel contribution as it expands the predictive factors of financial distress and provides new findings that can have important implications for providing early warning signals of financial risk.     

数智化时代下的创业影响及政策转型

在综述数智化创业活动影响及创业政策需求的基础上,依据产业政策的经典分析框架讨论了数智化影响下创业政策调整的对象和过程。从个人、团队、团队间三个层次分析并总结数智化时代下的创业影响特征,同时提出了数智化对创业政策的新诉求,归纳创业政策的主体、政策适应过程、政策目标制定三方面新特征,为政府创业政策的转型提供方向。研究归纳的多层次主体资源整合、边界与过程融合、创造需求新起点等数智化转型特征与政策转变要点能够为创业政策转型提供理论参考。     

人造购物狂欢节现状调查——以蚌埠市为例

为探究人造购物狂欢节在三线城市的现状,以安徽省蚌埠市为例,对蚌埠市4个城区(龙子湖区、蚌山区、禹会区、淮上区)的消费者进行问卷调查,运用假设检验、列联分析等统计方法对问卷结果进行探究,发现女性比男性购物要频繁;中、高收入的中年群体属于"经常购物类型";"双十一"的主要消费人群为中、低收入居民,而"节假日购物节"的主要消费人群为高收入居民;服装配饰、日用百货和护肤彩妆更受消费者青睐,可能为连带销售商品;性别对消费结构、购买力度有影响等.基于此,针对商家提出政策性建议.     

谢桥煤矿综采工作面“人—机—环境”系统研究与应用

综采工作面是煤矿生产系统的重要组成部分,其"人—机—环境"相互作用关系直接影响着煤矿的安全生产。本文以谢桥煤矿综采面"人—机—环境"系统为研究对象,并从这三个组成要素出发,对各类影响因素进行了研究和评价,为人、机、环境各子系统的改进提供理论基础和决策支持。继而结合采煤生产循环实际过程,提出"以人为本"的人机工程匹配完善方案,提高人机互动准确度,克服设备三大故障。将研究结果应用到谢桥煤矿13116综采工作面的实际生产,并提出相应的改进措施,使系统功能趋于完善。     

国内外手语语序研究综述

文章查阅了国内外关于手语语序研究的文献,对研究结果进行分析归纳后得出:手语语序研究在国外开展比较深入,国内相关研究尚显薄弱;手语语序受到动词方向性、类标记结构、语义、语用以及非手控特征等多种因素的影响;判断手语基本语序的标准与口语大致相同;对被试的选择和实验材料的设计越来越科学合理。文章在分析归纳已有研究成果的基础上,提出了中国手语语序研究中应该注意的问题。     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.