变分过渡态理论的新应用

提供了变分过渡态理论的新应用－用于气固界面上的反应，重点是气相分子在面心立方晶体上发生的解离吸附反应，给出了反应的物理图象，用新的势能面计算了Ｈ２在Ｎｉ（１００）面上的解离吸附的速度常数，结果与Ｔｒｕｈｌａｒ的结果相符。     

星风物质损失率对大中质量转动恒星演化的影响

文章采用四个不同星风物质损失率公式,计算了5M⊙和15M⊙转动恒星的演化。通过对演化结果的比较发现：星风物质损失率的大小对大质量转动恒星演化的影响比对中质量恒星的影响要大;星风作用越大,恒星在HR图中的演化轨迹向低光度方向移动;而且较大的物质损失率降低了恒星内部CNO循环的反应速率,从而延长了恒星的演化寿命,并影响到恒星内部的密度和温度等各个物理量。     

一种汇率模型的波动分析

讨论一种受到一般随机干扰的汇率模型,介绍随机循环的含义及定理,使用随机李雅普诺夫函数得到了在一定的条件下受到各种随机干扰的实际汇率的波动范围。     

The real exchange rate,fiscal policy and the role of wealth an analysis of equilibrium in a monetary union

This paper is concerned with the adjustment processes within a potential European monetary union and looks in particular at permanent asymmetric shocks that require an adjustment in a country's (or region's) real exchange rate. We first consider some of the implications of EMU and the question of asymmetries within the European economy. The presence of asymmetries and, in particular, different institutional structures in labour markets is a potential source of tension within a union and it could make a union difficult to sustain. However, automatic adjustment processes will be at work within a monetary union as a result of changes in relative price levels, which change real exchange rates, and also as a result of changes in wealth stocks. We use our econometric world model, NIGEM, to investigate the effects of asymmetric fiscal expansions and real exchange rate misalignments within a monetary union. In order to quantify the effects of such permanent asymmetric shocks we have introduced wealth into our model. Our simulations suggest that the principal impact of the fiscal expansion on both output and the price level will occur within the country in which the expansion occurs. Short-term gains are crowded out in the medium term, and while monetary union reduces crowding out in the short term, it increases the rate at which crowding out occurs thereafter. We also analyse the effects of real exchange rate misalignments and find that the processes of adjustment may be very protracted. This could cause strain on the union as adjustment costs are shared unequally.     

Forecast comparisons of four models of U.S. interest rates

In this paper we compare the out of sample forecasts from four alternative interest rate models based on expanding information sets. The random walk model is the most restrictive. The univariate time series model allows for a richer dynamic pattern and more conditioning information on own rates. The multivariate time series model permits a flexible dynamic pattern with own- and cross-series information. Finally, the forecasts from the MPS econometric model depend on the full model structure and information set. In theory, more information is preferred to less. In practice, complicated misspecified models can perform much worse than simple (also probably misspecified) models. For forecasts evaluated over the volatile 1970s the multivariate time series model forecasts are considerably better than those from simpler models which use less conditioning information, as well as forecasts from the MPS model which uses substantially more conditioning information but also imposes ‘structural’ economic restrictions.     

水溶性壳聚糖的热分解动力学研究

利用多重扫描速率法研究了商品水溶性壳聚糖(盐酸盐)的热分解反应动力学.主分解过程可以分为两个阶段,首先是高分子盐的分解,其次是高分子链的解聚合,两个阶段的反应活化能E和指前因子lnA值分别为173.99±2.63,128.97±1.87 kJ·mol-1和35.28±0.62,24.69±0.44 min-1.利用Achar微分法判定该物质两个阶段的热分解最概然机理函数相同,为f(α)＝ 1-α,该模型属于每个颗粒上只有一个核心的随机成核和随后生长机理.     

深松软地基条件下工程桩事故分析及对策

分析了上海地区深松软地基条件下,某工程预应力高强度混凝土（PHC）管桩和预制方桩施工的事故情况,对场地的地质条件、预制桩工程特性、沉桩工艺及基坑开挖等影响因素进行了系统分析,剖析了其事故产生的原因,并提出了针对性的加固处理技术措施.     

动水条件下泥沙絮凝体粒径变化分析实验研究

絮凝体广泛存在于自然界水体中,而在河口海岸动水环境下的黏性细颗粒泥沙的絮凝变化过程是一个重要且有待完善的研究课题。利用长江口北槽现场悬沙样本开展了系统的室内絮凝实验。采用粒径分布与有效粒径两种分析方法,研究了在水流紊动、盐度和悬沙浓度等不同絮凝因子条件作用下对长江口北槽泥沙絮凝体粒径变化的影响。实验结果表明:紊动剪切率对絮凝体粒径作用为先促进后减小,临界值出现在23. 09 s~(-1),此时最大有效粒径为50. 26μm;而悬沙浓度会抑制絮凝体生长;同时长江口北槽悬沙的絮凝饱和盐度要大于高岭土,约为14. 4 ppt。     

Forecasting Longevity Gains Using a Seemingly Unrelated Time Series Model

In this paper a multivariate time series model using the seemingly unrelated time series equation (SUTSE) framework is proposed to forecast longevity gains. The proposed model is represented in state space form and uses Kalman filtering to estimate the unobservable components and fixed parameters. We apply the model both to male mortality rates in Portugal and the USA. Our results compare favorably, in terms of mean absolute percentage error, in‐sample and out‐of‐sample, to those obtained by the Lee–Carter method and some of its extensions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts

By linking measures of forecast accuracy as well as testing procedures with regard to forecast rationality this paper investigates aggregated survey forecasts with forecast horizons of 3, 12, and 24 months for the exchange rates of the Chinese yuan, the Hong Kong dollar, the Japanese yen, and the Singapore dollar vis-à-vis the US dollar and, hence, for four different currency regimes. The rationality of the exchange rate predictions is initially assessed utilizing tests for unbiasedness and efficiency which indicate that the investigated forecasts are irrational in the sense that the predictions are biased. As one major contribution of this paper, it is subsequently shown that these results are not consistent with an alternative, less restrictive, measure of rationality. Investigating the order of integration of the time series as well as cointegrating relationships, this empirical evidence supports the conclusion that the majority of forecasts are in fact rational. Regarding forerunning properties of the predictions, the results are rather mediocre, with shorter term forecasts for the tightly managed USD/CNY FX regime being one exception. As one additional important and novel evaluation result, it can be concluded, that the currency regime matters for the quality of exchange rate forecasts.