随机供求下的道路服务水平可靠性

目前对路网可靠性的研究主要集中在连通可靠性、行程时间可靠性和容量可靠性三个方面,但这些可靠性指标均不能综合反映路网的性能.为此本文从交通供给和交通需求随机性分析入手,借鉴可靠性理论,从出行者个体和网络管理者的角度出发,提出了服务水平可靠性的概念,拓展了现有的路网可靠性评价指标.通过将路段容量和交通需求简化为离散随机变量,基于路网最可能状态生成算法,建立了路段及路网服务水平可靠性计算的近似算法,最后在一简单网络上进行了计算分析.     

ALLOCATING REPAIRABLE SYSTEM＇S RELIABILITY SUBJECT TO MINIMAL TOTAL COST - AN INTEGER PROGRAMMING APPROACH

Reliability allocation problem is commonly treated using a closed-form expression relating the cost to reliability. A recent approach has introduced the use of discrete integer technique for un-repairable systems. This research addresses the allocation problem for repairable systems. It presents an integer formulation for finding the optimum selection of components based on the integer values of their Mean Time to Failure （MTTF） and Mean Time to Repair （MTTR）. The objective is to minimize the total cost under a system reliability constraint, in addition to other physical constraints. Although, a closed-form expression relating the cost to reliability may not be a linear; however, in this research, the objective function will always be linear regardless of the shape of the equivalent continuous closed-form function. An example is solved using the proposed method and compared with the solution of the continuous closed-form version. The formulation for all possible system configurations, components and subsystems are also considered.     

一多种错误类型的软件可靠性模型

以多维非刘次生灭过程为工具建立了一多种错误类型的软件可靠性模型,讨论了含有多种错误类型的软件系统的不完全测试与错误引入问题,并且获得了与模型有关的一些可靠性能指标,此模型不统一了一些已有的软件可靠性模型。     

基于PI模型的加速可靠性增长试验统计分析

针对加速可靠性增长试验中需要通过加速应力试验条件获得的故障信息,定量评价正常应力下产品可靠性增长所达到的可靠性水平问题.首先阐述恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验实施过程.其次,基于用于随机点过程的统计回归模型——PI(比例强度)模型,结合工程实际中广泛应用的可靠性增长模型—AMSAA,提出了模型和数据分析假设,建立了恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验的统计评估模型,给出了未知参数的极大似然估计方法.进一步,根据非齐次泊松过程的性质,得到了恒定应力加速可靠性增长试验故障数据的仿真抽样公式,通过对不同时间截尾下的仿真算例的统计分析,验证了该方法的可用性和合理性.     

汽轮机汽封改造

文章通过对迷宫梳齿密封与王常春接触式蜂窝汽封的优缺点和工作原理进行了比较说明,介绍了王常春接触式蜂窝汽封在汽轮机组上的应用情况,以及进行汽封改造后所取得的效果。     

基于可靠性的低压配电系统微网群划分研究

随着国家鼓励分布式发电政策的颁布和实施,越来越多的分布式电源以户用型微电网的形式接入到配电网中。户用微电网的建设实现了分布式电源的就地消纳,显著提供了低压配电系统的供电可靠性。然而,在故障状态下,户用微电网孤岛运行模式却未充分利用相应的分布式资源。为解决这一问题,首先提出了含分布式电源的户用微网群划分指标——可孤岛概率;然后,基于该指标构建了户用微网群的最优划分模型,分析了其目标函数和约束条件,并进一步提出了相应的求解方法。最后,算例仿真结果表明:提出的户用微网群的划分模型,可以显著提高低压配电系统的供电可靠性,在配置较少的划分开关下也可达到较为理想的效果。     

卫星半物理仿真系统实时接口研究与实现

本文介绍了卫星半物理仿真系统的组成及实时接口方案设计，给出了其硬件设计技术及软件设计技术，提出了采用以太网将各种数据采集计算机及数据处理计算机联在一起的设计方案，并进行了可靠性分析。     

1553B总线系统的可靠性机制

1553B多路复用数据总线系统已广泛地应用于现代军用飞机中,成为其综合航电系统的核心部分,因此,1553B总线系统的可靠性直接影响着飞机的战斗力及其自身的飞行安全。本文将从总线标准、系统设计及从部件到系统的测试方面,讨论1553D总线系统的可靠性问题。     

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

This paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non-probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical-statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting systems.     

Markov可修系统的蒙特卡罗方法

假设各部件的寿命分布和修理时间分布都为指数分布,且分布参数已知,本文用蒙特卡罗方法计算了单部件、双部件和三单件构成的串联、并联和串并联系统的可靠度、瞬时可用度、稳态可用度和故障频度等特征数量指标。为了检验蒙特卡罗模拟结果的准确程度,同时给出解析结果与之对比,表明该方法应用的正确性。