Can purchasing power parity help forecast the dollar?

This paper examines the information on future exchange rate movements provided by the doctrine of purchasing power parity (PPP). Previous research has studied this issue by analyzing the time-series properties of period-by-period levels of, or changes in, exchange rates. In contrast, the present study focuses on the durations of periods in which exchange rates deviate from their PPP levels. If PPP provides information about future exchange rate movements, these durations should exhibit positive duration dependence. That is, the probability of returning to PPP levels should increase as the period of deviation increases. Parametric hazard functions estimated using data from eighteen countries provide no evidence of positive duration dependence. These results are robust to alternative definitions of PPP and to alternative functional specifications. While exchange rates take prolonged swings away from their PPP levels and then eventually return, these movements apparently constitute Monte Carlo cycles in which, at any point in time, the probability of moving back toward PPP is the same as the probability of moving farther away. Thus, PPP provides no useful information on future exchange rate changes, a result consistent with market efficiency.     

Tone features in whispered Chinese

Study on the whispered tone is important to speech recognition and conversion in whispered Chinese. In this paper, the characteristics of whispered speech are introduced and the tone features in whispered Chinese are discussed. There is no fundamental frequency in the whispered speech, so other features, such as the amplitude envelope, duration, glottal area, lip area, forrnant, and vocal tract length, are extracted and their contributions to the automatic tone recognition are compared. From the experiments with six simple Chinese whispered vowels in four tones, it is proved that loudness-weighted 32 Mel-frequency bands log-amplitude envelopes and duration can be used as the main tone features in the whispered Chinese tone recognition. The average tone recognition rate approaches that of the human perception level.     

南宁市近50年气候变化特征

利用南宁市城区1951～2005年的气象资料,分析了近50年来气温、降水、日照时数、风速等气象要素的变化特征,结果显示,南宁市年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,1986年以来升温最明显,随着气候变暖,寒冻害明显减少,高温天气有增多的趋势.年降水量的长期变化趋势不明显,但年际变化较大;年降水日数有减少的趋势,≥25 mm和≥50 mm的强降水日数呈微弱的增加趋势.年日照时数、年平均风速、大风日数呈明显减少的趋势.     

益阳话轻重音的声学实验分析

文章从实验语音学的角度 ,通过语音的声学实验 ,从音长、音色、音高等方面对益阳话轻重音的物理声学特征进行了分析。研究表明 ,轻读音节能量较弱 ,是音长、音色、音高等因素综合变化的结果     

燃烧法合成纳米长余辉发光材料BaAl2O4: Eu, Nd

目的：应用快速简便的方法制备纳米新型长余辉发光材料。方法：首次利用金属硝酸盐和络合还原剂发生氧化还原反应，燃烧合成了蓝绿色纳米级长余辉发光材料BaAl2O4:Eu,Nd，生成的材料进行了XRD和TEM分析，结果：材料粒子直径为30－70nm，平均为40nm左右，与此同时，发光材料的发射峰位置发生了显著的蓝移。结论：燃烧法是制备纳米发光材料的快速有效的方法。     

久期在债券利率风险度量中的应用及修正

介绍了不可能赎回债券的麦考莱久期；通过分段考虑贴现率，给出了麦考莱久期两种有效修改形式。     

普通野生稻和9516剑叶光合功能衰退过程的比较

本文比较了普通野生稻 (Oryza .sativaL .f.spontaneaRoschev .)和粳稻品种 95 16 (O .sativaLvar.95 16 )光合功能衰退的进程 .研究发现 95 16剑叶在一生中叶绿素含量和光合速率都高于普通野生稻 ,前者剑叶的光合速率最高值 2 3.5 μmolCO2 m-2 ·S-1,而普通野生稻的剑叶光合作用的最高值为 15 .5 μmolCO2 m-2 ·S-1且 95 16光合作用的高值持续期比野生稻的高值持续期长近 2 0d .95 16剑叶的叶源量是野生稻剑叶的 2 .8倍 .在光合功能衰退过程中 ,核酮糖 1,5 -二磷酸羧化 /加氧酶的羧化酶活性没有太大区别 .内肽酶活力上升迟于光合功能衰退过程 .在光合功能衰退的早期 ,内肽酶的活力有小幅度提高 ,但到叶片衰老的末期则有较大幅度的提高 .这说明衰退的早期内肽酶的作用不大 ,只是到了后期即不可逆期内肽酶才可能发挥较大作用 .     

局间通信负荷监控问题的形式化方法

利用最新时段演算等理论，形式化负荷监测功能的告警原理和组合输出问题，并进行必要的形式化推导，以确保规范说明具有可理解性和准确性．还给出了实现监控的核心算法．     

方波型逆变器脉宽比与功率谱分布的关系

频谱分析表明，在相同周期、相同有效值情况下，逆变器输出电压的脉冲宽度与周期的比值为０．７４２０时，其基波的输出功率最大．     

带相依利率结构风险模型的破产持续时间

在利率具有二阶自回归相依结构,同时考虑到保费、理赔支付时间的离散时间风险模型下,得到了在停时T,保险公司在初始准备金为u时,破产持续时间的分布的递推公式.