Simple rules yield complex food webs

Several of the most ambitious theories in ecology describe food webs that document the structure of strong and weak trophic links that is responsible for ecological dynamics among diverse assemblages of species. Early mechanism-based theory asserted that food webs have little omnivory and several properties that are independent of species richness. This theory was overturned by empirical studies that found food webs to be much more complex, but these studies did not provide mechanistic explanations for the complexity. Here we show that a remarkably simple model fills this scientific void by successfully predicting key structural properties of the most complex and comprehensive food webs in the primary literature. These properties include the fractions of species at top, intermediate and basal trophic levels, the means and variabilities of generality, vulnerability and food-chain length, and the degrees of cannibalism, omnivory, looping and trophic similarity. Using only two empirical parameters, species number and connectance, our 'niche model' extends the existing 'cascade model and improves its fit ten-fold by constraining species to consume a contiguous sequence of prey in a one-dimensional trophic niche.     

The proteins of linked genes evolve at similar rates

Much more variation in the rate of protein evolution occurs than is expected by chance. But why some proteins evolve rapidly but others slowly is poorly resolved. It was proposed, for example, that essential genes might evolve slower than dispensable ones, but this is not the case; and despite earlier claims, rates of evolution do not correlate with amino-acid composition. A few patterns have been found: proteins involved in antagonistic co-evolution (for example, immune genes, parasite antigens and reproductive conflict genes) tend to be rapidly evolving, and there is a correlation between the rate of protein evolution and the mutation rate of the gene. Here we report a new highly statistically significant predictor of a protein's rate of evolution, and show that linked genes have similar rates of protein evolution. There is also a weaker similarity of rates of silent site evolution (see ref. 13), which appears to be, in part, a consequence of the similarity in rates of protein evolution. The similarity in rates of protein evolution is not a consequence of underlying mutational patterns. A pronounced negative correlation between the rate of protein evolution and a covariant of the recombination rate indicates that rates of protein evolution possibly reflect, in part, the local strength of stabilizing selection.     

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grassland

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO(2) may counter that trend by improving plant water-use efficiency. However, it is not clear how important this CO(2)-enhanced water use efficiency might be in offsetting warming-induced desiccation because higher CO(2) also leads to higher plant biomass, and therefore greater transpirational surface. Furthermore, although warming is predicted to favour warm-season, C(4) grasses, rising CO(2) should favour C(3), or cool-season plants. Here we show in a semi-arid grassland that elevated CO(2) can completely reverse the desiccating effects of moderate warming. Although enrichment of air to 600?p.p.m.v. CO(2) increased soil water content (SWC), 1.5/3.0?°C day/night warming resulted in desiccation, such that combined CO(2) enrichment and warming had no effect on SWC relative to control plots. As predicted, elevated CO(2) favoured C(3) grasses and enhanced stand productivity, whereas warming favoured C(4) grasses. Combined warming and CO(2) enrichment stimulated above-ground growth of C(4) grasses in 2 of 3?years when soil moisture most limited plant productivity. The results indicate that in a warmer, CO(2)-enriched world, both SWC and productivity in semi-arid grasslands may be higher than previously expected.     

Atmospheric oxidation capacity sustained by a tropical forest

Terrestrial vegetation, especially tropical rain forest, releases vast quantities of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to the atmosphere, which are removed by oxidation reactions and deposition of reaction products. The oxidation is mainly initiated by hydroxyl radicals (OH), primarily formed through the photodissociation of ozone. Previously it was thought that, in unpolluted air, biogenic VOCs deplete OH and reduce the atmospheric oxidation capacity. Conversely, in polluted air VOC oxidation leads to noxious oxidant build-up by the catalytic action of nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2). Here we report aircraft measurements of atmospheric trace gases performed over the pristine Amazon forest. Our data reveal unexpectedly high OH concentrations. We propose that natural VOC oxidation, notably of isoprene, recycles OH efficiently in low-NO(x) air through reactions of organic peroxy radicals. Computations with an atmospheric chemistry model and the results of laboratory experiments suggest that an OH recycling efficiency of 40-80 per cent in isoprene oxidation may be able to explain the high OH levels we observed in the field. Although further laboratory studies are necessary to explore the chemical mechanism responsible for OH recycling in more detail, our results demonstrate that the biosphere maintains a remarkable balance with the atmospheric environment.     

Hit-and-run planetary collisions

Terrestrial planet formation is believed to have concluded in our Solar System with about 10 million to 100 million years of giant impacts, where hundreds of Moon- to Mars-sized planetary embryos acquired random velocities through gravitational encounters and resonances with one another and with Jupiter. This led to planet-crossing orbits and collisions that produced the four terrestrial planets, the Moon and asteroids. But here we show that colliding planets do not simply merge, as is commonly assumed. In many cases, the smaller planet escapes from the collision highly deformed, spun up, depressurized from equilibrium, stripped of its outer layers, and sometimes pulled apart into a chain of diverse objects. Remnants of these 'hit-and-run' collisions are predicted to be common among remnant planet-forming populations, and thus to be relevant to asteroid formation and meteorite petrogenesis.     

Can forecasters forecast successfully? Evidence from UK betting markets

This paper investigates the performance of professional racetrack forecasting services in the UK. The racetrack market is chosen for investigation because it offers a clear and well‐defined set of costs and returns. As such, it provides a useful perspective from which to consider the efficiency of professional forecasting performance. Five services are selected based on their reported success in a period prior to the sample selection. The results of this study indicate that all the services showed evidence of net pre‐tax profits, notably for more strongly recommended tips, but this would have required quite high stakes to cover the costs of accessing the information. Statistical tests of significance were unable, however, to confirm the evidence of profitability at conventional levels of acceptance. Taking into account the transactions costs of using these services, it is even more difficult to confirm the existence of abnormal returns. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.