Which survey indicators are useful for monitoring consumption? Evidence from European countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985–1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short‐term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analysed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short‐term prospects of consumption. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种适于强横向变速的高阶差分正演模拟方法

波动方程正演模拟法相对于射线法具有精度高、效率低的特点。为了提高其效率 ,提出了一种高阶差分正演模拟方法。该方法考虑了速度场局部的强横向变化 ,适于复杂介质的正演模拟 ;在相同精度下 ,高阶差分的空间横向间隔可取为低阶差分的 2～ 4倍 ,有较高的计算效率 ;高阶差分加上合适的边界条件能较好地解决网格频散和边界效应问题。通过对Marmousi模型的试算 ,验证了该方法对复杂速度模型的适应性、有效性和实用性。     

热连轧精轧机组温度模型的改进

从实际生产数据入手,研究了温度模型设定精度的现状及设定精度与各影响因素之间的关系,同时还消化了原来的温度模型程序并将其移植到微机上.经大量的离线统计回归分析,提出了一个行之有效的温度模型改进方案.该改进方案的思路同样适合其他热轧生产线.     

强直电流伸展弧CVD硬质合金金刚石涂层工具

采用自行研制的强电流直流扩展电弧设备对酸浸和渗硼预处理的YG6刀片进行了金刚石薄膜涂层沉积，并对放于不同位置的沉积刀片表面涂层的激光Raman谱和SEM形貌进行了分析、研究。结果表明：渗硼预处理工艺优于酸浸预处理工艺；在渗硼处理的GY6刀片上，沉积的金刚石薄膜涂层具有大面积、均匀性好和质量高的特点。     

微分代数控制问题的数值计算方法

描述许多轨道控制问题的方程通常构成非线性半显式的微分代数系统。本文提出一些数值方法来计算这些控制问题的控制规律。对于一个模型问题,本文进行了稳定性分析,并且给出了稳定性区域。文中估计了这些方法的全局误差,它们给出控制误差与计算步长的关系。     

Exponential smoothing: Behavior of the ex-post sum of squares near 0 and 1

When using simple exponential smoothing on a given time series the nature of the relationship between the optimal smoothing constant and the autocorrelation structure of the series remains an unresolved question. Although numerical search routines can easily be used to find optimal values of the smoothing constant, they offer little insight into the nature of the relationship between the estimated smoothing constant and the structure of the underlying time series. We suggest that renewed investigations of the ex-post sum of squares function may prove helpful in this pursuit. Results are presented that illustrate how the optimal smoothing constant depends upon the value used to initialize the smoothing and upon the sample autocorrelation coefficients of the observed series. These results are based on a new formula for the derivative of the ex-post sum of squares function. In particular, the derivative is examined near 0 and 1, where great simplifications occur in its form, thereby facilitating investigations near these points. A necessary and sufficient condition is stated for when the ex-post sum of squares must have a positive derivative at 0 and the autocorrelation coefficients of the differenced series are shown to affect the sign of the derivative near 1. Based on these results, a general algorithm is presented as an alternative to grid search routines for minimizing the ex-post sum of squares.     

Effect of volatile anesthetics on the circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin

The characteristic circular dichroism of bilirubin bound to human serum albumin undergoes a remarkable sign inversion on addition of halothane, chloroform and other volatile anesthetics. This sign inversion, which is completely reversed by removal of the anesthetic, reflects a pronounced conformational change of the bound ligand; probably a complete inversion of chirality. The observation suggests that association of volatile anesthetics with proteins can markedly alter the internal topography of receptor sites and potentially influence the stereoselectivity of ligand binding.     

负反馈电桥在电阻传感器线性化中的应用

本文介绍利用信号流图及梅森公式分析设计负反馈电桥电路,以及在电阻传感器测量线性化中的应用。     

Estimation and testing of time-varying coefficient regression models in the presence of linear restrictions

A linear regression model with random walk coefficients is extended to allow for linear restrictions between the coefficients to be satisfied at each point in time. Estimation in this model is shown to be no more involved than estimation in the standard model. It is also demonstrated how, after a slight modification to the testing problem, classical test procedures may be applied to the problem of testing for such restrictions. The performance of the Lagrange Multiplier test for a variety of different restrictions is then investigated via simulation. An empirical application involving testing for homogeneity in a random walk coefficient version of the AIDS model is given.