Mincer–Zarnowitz quantile and expectile regressions for forecast evaluations under aysmmetric loss functions

Forecasts are pervasive in all areas of applications in business and daily life. Hence evaluating the accuracy of a forecast is important for both the generators and consumers of forecasts. There are two aspects in forecast evaluation: (a) measuring the accuracy of past forecasts using some summary statistics, and (b) testing the optimality properties of the forecasts through some diagnostic tests. On measuring the accuracy of a past forecast, this paper illustrates that the summary statistics used should match the loss function that was used to generate the forecast. If there is strong evidence that an asymmetric loss function has been used in the generation of a forecast, then a summary statistic that corresponds to that asymmetric loss function should be used in assessing the accuracy of the forecast instead of the popular root mean square error or mean absolute error. On testing the optimality of the forecasts, it is demonstrated how the quantile regressions set in the prediction–realization framework of Mincer and Zarnowitz (in J. Mincer (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance (pp. 14–20), 1969) can be used to recover the unknown parameter that controls the potentially asymmetric loss function used in generating the past forecasts. Finally, the prediction–realization framework is applied to the Federal Reserve's economic growth forecast and forecast sharing in a PC manufacturing supply chain. It is found that the Federal Reserve values overprediction approximately 1.5 times more costly than underprediction. It is also found that the PC manufacturer weighs positive forecast errors (under forecasts) about four times as costly as negative forecast errors (over forecasts).     

SUMO1-dependent modulation of SERCA2a in heart failure

The calcium-transporting ATPase ATP2A2, also known as SERCA2a, is a critical ATPase responsible for Ca(2+) re-uptake during excitation-contraction coupling. Impaired Ca(2+) uptake resulting from decreased expression and reduced activity of SERCA2a is a hallmark of heart failure. Accordingly, restoration of SERCA2a expression by gene transfer has proved to be effective in improving cardiac function in heart-failure patients, as well as in animal models. The small ubiquitin-related modifier (SUMO) can be conjugated to lysine residues of target proteins, and is involved in many cellular processes. Here we show that SERCA2a is SUMOylated at lysines 480 and 585 and that this SUMOylation is essential for preserving SERCA2a ATPase activity and stability in mouse and human cells. The levels of SUMO1 and the SUMOylation of SERCA2a itself were greatly reduced in failing hearts. SUMO1 restitution by adeno-associated-virus-mediated gene delivery maintained the protein abundance of SERCA2a and markedly improved cardiac function in mice with heart failure. This effect was comparable to SERCA2A gene delivery. Moreover, SUMO1 overexpression in isolated cardiomyocytes augmented contractility and accelerated Ca(2+) decay. Transgene-mediated SUMO1 overexpression rescued cardiac dysfunction induced by pressure overload concomitantly with increased SERCA2a function. By contrast, downregulation of SUMO1 using small hairpin RNA (shRNA) accelerated pressure-overload-induced deterioration of cardiac function and was accompanied by decreased SERCA2a function. However, knockdown of SERCA2a resulted in severe contractile dysfunction both in vitro and in vivo, which was not rescued by overexpression of SUMO1. Taken together, our data show that SUMOylation is a critical post-translational modification that regulates SERCA2a function, and provide a platform for the design of novel therapeutic strategies for heart failure.     

Conformational changes in the G protein Gs induced by the β2 adrenergic receptor

G protein-coupled receptors represent the largest family of membrane receptors that instigate signalling through nucleotide exchange on heterotrimeric G proteins. Nucleotide exchange, or more precisely, GDP dissociation from the G protein α-subunit, is the key step towards G protein activation and initiation of downstream signalling cascades. Despite a wealth of biochemical and biophysical studies on inactive and active conformations of several heterotrimeric G proteins, the molecular underpinnings of G protein activation remain elusive. To characterize this mechanism, we applied peptide amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry to probe changes in the structure of the heterotrimeric bovine G protein, Gs (the stimulatory G protein for adenylyl cyclase) on formation of a complex with agonist-bound human β(2) adrenergic receptor (β(2)AR). Here we report structural links between the receptor-binding surface and the nucleotide-binding pocket of Gs that undergo higher levels of hydrogen-deuterium exchange than would be predicted from the crystal structure of the β(2)AR-Gs complex. Together with X-ray crystallographic and electron microscopic data of the β(2)AR-Gs complex (from refs 2, 3), we provide a rationale for a mechanism of nucleotide exchange, whereby the receptor perturbs the structure of the amino-terminal region of the α-subunit of Gs and consequently alters the 'P-loop' that binds the β-phosphate in GDP. As with the Ras family of small-molecular-weight G proteins, P-loop stabilization and β-phosphate coordination are key determinants of GDP (and GTP) binding affinity.     

Image-based genome-wide siRNA screen identifies selective autophagy factors

Selective autophagy involves the recognition and targeting of specific cargo, such as damaged organelles, misfolded proteins, or invading pathogens for lysosomal destruction. Yeast genetic screens have identified proteins required for different forms of selective autophagy, including cytoplasm-to-vacuole targeting, pexophagy and mitophagy, and mammalian genetic screens have identified proteins required for autophagy regulation. However, there have been no systematic approaches to identify molecular determinants of selective autophagy in mammalian cells. Here, to identify mammalian genes required for selective autophagy, we performed a high-content, image-based, genome-wide small interfering RNA screen to detect genes required for the colocalization of Sindbis virus capsid protein with autophagolysosomes. We identified 141 candidate genes required for viral autophagy, which were enriched for cellular pathways related to messenger RNA processing, interferon signalling, vesicle trafficking, cytoskeletal motor function and metabolism. Ninety-six of these genes were also required for Parkin-mediated mitophagy, indicating that common molecular determinants may be involved in autophagic targeting of viral nucleocapsids and autophagic targeting of damaged mitochondria. Murine embryonic fibroblasts lacking one of these gene products, the C2-domain containing protein, SMURF1, are deficient in the autophagosomal targeting of Sindbis and herpes simplex viruses and in the clearance of damaged mitochondria. Moreover, SMURF1-deficient mice accumulate damaged mitochondria in the heart, brain and liver. Thus, our study identifies candidate determinants of selective autophagy, and defines SMURF1 as a newly recognized mediator of both viral autophagy and mitophagy.     

Positional cloning uncovers mutations in PLCE1 responsible for a nephrotic syndrome variant that may be reversible

Nephrotic syndrome, a malfunction of the kidney glomerular filter, leads to proteinuria, edema and, in steroid-resistant nephrotic syndrome, end-stage kidney disease. Using positional cloning, we identified mutations in the phospholipase C epsilon gene (PLCE1) as causing early-onset nephrotic syndrome with end-stage kidney disease. Kidney histology of affected individuals showed diffuse mesangial sclerosis (DMS). Using immunofluorescence, we found PLCepsilon1 expression in developing and mature glomerular podocytes and showed that DMS represents an arrest of normal glomerular development. We identified IQ motif-containing GTPase-activating protein 1 as a new interaction partner of PLCepsilon1. Two siblings with a missense mutation in an exon encoding the PLCepsilon1 catalytic domain showed histology characteristic of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis. Notably, two other affected individuals responded to therapy, making this the first report of a molecular cause of nephrotic syndrome that may resolve after therapy. These findings, together with the zebrafish model of human nephrotic syndrome generated by plce1 knockdown, open new inroads into pathophysiology and treatment mechanisms of nephrotic syndrome.     

Bacteria adhesion and biofilms on surfaces

Bacterial adhesion has become a significant problem in industry and in the domicile, and much research has been done for deeper understanding of the processes involved. A generic biological model of bacterial adhesion and population growth called the bacterial biofilm growth cycle, has been described and modified many times. The biofilm growth cycle encompasses bacterial adhesion at all levels, starting with the initial physical attraction of bacteria to a substrate, and ending with the eventual liberation of cell clusters from the biofilm matrix. When describing bacterial adhesion one is simply describing one or more stages of biofilm development, neglecting the fact that the population may not reach maturity. This article provides an overview of bacterial adhesion, cites examples of how bacterial adhesion affects industry and summarises methods and instrumentation used to improve our understanding of the adhesive properties of bacteria.     

Introduction to rainwater management in Australia and suggestions for China’s water problems

Australia is one of the world leaders in water management. The country meets the challenge of water shortage with established integrated water management in which rainwater is taken as a too precious resource to be just drained off. In Australia, rainwater is extensively harvested and polished to provide cheaper supply for potable and non-potable domestic uses, irrigation, landscaping, refilling aquifers and other uses. Implementing dual management over the quantity and quality of storm water and practicing water sensitive urban design (WSUD) in urban areas effectively control non-point-source pollution of waterways by pollutants carried with runoffs, reduce the discharge of rainwater and thus protect properties and lives from damage by floods. These achievements are attributed to constant reinforcement by govenments from federal to local levels in policy, financial, legal and educational aspects, and also to the lasting efforts of professional communities and water industry in developing requisite techniques, demonstrating the benefits and fostering public credence of rainwater reuse. The successful rainwater management practices in Australia suggest rainwater harvesting can be a complimentary means for the South-to-North Water Transfer Scheme to solve the water shortage in China’s northern regions, and thus release to a degree the pressure on the Yangtze water resources. Best management practices of rainwater can be an effective controlling strategy for flooding and non-point-source water pollution of waterways. Such in-site source control initiatives have particular significance to protecting slow waterways of weak self-purification ability, like the Three Gorges Reservior.