Investigation of Jacket Silhouette Based on Ease Distribution

The silhouette of women＇s garment is diversified in its design. In this paper,a new model was developed to predict the silhouette of jacket for the given girth measurements. Sixty-three princess-seam women＇s jackets with seven styles and nine girth dimensions of each style were produced. Their ease distribution was investigated at bustline,waistline,and hipline,respectively. The widths of the cross-sections for bustline,waistline,and hipline were formulated by multiple linear regressions. Then the silhouette was captured from the ratio of waist width to bust width of a designed jacket,together with that of waist width to hip width.     

Common sequence variants on 20q11.22 confer melanoma susceptibility

We conducted a genome-wide association pooling study for cutaneous melanoma and performed validation in samples totaling 2,019 cases and 2,105 controls. Using pooling, we identified a new melanoma risk locus on chromosome 20 (rs910873 and rs1885120), with replication in two further samples (combined P < 1 x 10(-15)). The per allele odds ratio was 1.75 (1.53, 2.01), with evidence for stronger association in early-onset cases.     

Loci on 20q13 and 21q22 are associated with pediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease

Inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is a common inflammatory disorder with complex etiology that involves both genetic and environmental triggers, including but not limited to defects in bacterial clearance, defective mucosal barrier and persistent dysregulation of the immune response to commensal intestinal bacteria. IBD is characterized by two distinct phenotypes: Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Previously reported GWA studies have identified genetic variation accounting for a small portion of the overall genetic susceptibility to CD and an even smaller contribution to UC pathogenesis. We hypothesized that stratification of IBD by age of onset might identify additional genes associated with IBD. To that end, we carried out a GWA analysis in a cohort of 1,011 individuals with pediatric-onset IBD and 4,250 matched controls. We identified and replicated significantly associated, previously unreported loci on chromosomes 20q13 (rs2315008[T] and rs4809330[A]; P = 6.30 x 10(-8) and 6.95 x 10(-8), respectively; odds ratio (OR) = 0.74 for both) and 21q22 (rs2836878[A]; P = 6.01 x 10(-8); OR = 0.73), located close to the TNFRSF6B and PSMG1 genes, respectively.     

The emergence and spread of dysentery

Shigella sonnei is an important cause of bacterial dysentery in the developed world and has also recently emerged in transitional countries. Phylogenetic analysis based on whole-genome sequencing of a global sample has detailed the recent evolutionary history of this pathogen and shed light on the genetic changes associated with this epidemiological shift.     

Volatility forecasting with double Markov switching GARCH models

This paper investigates inference and volatility forecasting using a Markov switching heteroscedastic model with a fat‐tailed error distribution to analyze asymmetric effects on both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of financial time series. The motivation for extending the Markov switching GARCH model, previously developed to capture mean asymmetry, is that the switching variable, assumed to be a first‐order Markov process, is unobserved. The proposed model extends this work to incorporate Markov switching in the mean and variance simultaneously. Parameter estimation and inference are performed in a Bayesian framework via a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme. We compare competing models using Bayesian forecasting in a comparative value‐at‐risk study. The proposed methods are illustrated using both simulations and eight international stock market return series. The results generally favor the proposed double Markov switching GARCH model with an exogenous variable. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian Assessment of Dynamic Quantile Forecasts

Bayesian methods for assessing the accuracy of dynamic financial value‐at‐risk (VaR) forecasts have not been considered in the literature. Such methods are proposed in this paper. Specifically, Bayes factor analogues of popular frequentist tests for independence of violations from, and for correct coverage of a time series of, dynamic quantile forecasts are developed. To evaluate the relevant marginal likelihoods, analytic integration methods are utilized when possible; otherwise multivariate adaptive quadrature methods are employed to estimate the required quantities. The usual Bayesian interval estimate for a proportion is also examined in this context. The size and power properties of the proposed methods are examined via a simulation study, illustrating favourable comparisons both overall and with their frequentist counterparts. An empirical study employs the proposed methods, in comparison with standard tests, to assess the adequacy of a range of forecasting models for VaR in several financial market data series. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The decline and fate of an iron-induced subarctic phytoplankton bloom

Iron supply has a key role in stimulating phytoplankton blooms in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll oceanic waters. However, the fate of the carbon fixed by these blooms, and how efficiently it is exported into the ocean's interior, remains largely unknown. Here we report on the decline and fate of an iron-stimulated diatom bloom in the Gulf of Alaska. The bloom terminated on day 18, following the depletion of iron and then silicic acid, after which mixed-layer particulate organic carbon (POC) concentrations declined over six days. Increased particulate silica export via sinking diatoms was recorded in sediment traps at depths between 50 and 125 m from day 21, yet increased POC export was not evident until day 24. Only a small proportion of the mixed-layer POC was intercepted by the traps, with more than half of the mixed-layer POC deficit attributable to bacterial remineralization and mesozooplankton grazing. The depletion of silicic acid and the inefficient transfer of iron-increased POC below the permanent thermocline have major implications both for the biogeochemical interpretation of times of greater iron supply in the geological past, and also for proposed geo-engineering schemes to increase oceanic carbon sequestration.