Forecasting with leading indicators revisited

Transfer function or distributed lag models are commonly used in forecasting. The stability of a constant‐coefficient transfer function model, however, may become an issue for many economic variables due in part to the recent advance in technology and improvement in efficiency in data collection and processing. In this paper, we propose a simple functional‐coefficient transfer function model that can accommodate the changing environment. A likelihood ratio statistic is used to test the stability of a traditional transfer function model. We investigate the performance of the test statistic in the finite sample case via simulation. Using some well‐known examples, we demonstrate clearly that the proposed functional‐coefficient model can substantially improve the accuracy of out‐of‐sample forecasts. In particular, our simple modification results in a 25% reduction in the mean squared errors of out‐of‐sample one‐step‐ahead forecasts for the gas‐furnace data of Box and Jenkins. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A simple interspike interval analyzer for study of neuronal spike trains.

A simple, low cost interspike interval analyzer for the analysis of trains of nerve impulses is described. The analyzer is built with readily available integrated circuits and has been used to analyze spike trains in the lateral vestibular nucleus of cats.     

A direct plasma testosterone radioimmunoassay

Résumé On a développé und méthode simple pour déteminer sans chromatographie en colonne le testostérone du plasma. La purification a été faite par préextraction avec l'hexane. Un antisérum contre le testostérone a été produit chez des lapins inoculés avec des conjugués de testostérone-3-oxine et d'albumine de sérum bovin.     

Plastid differentiation on 6-azauracil media

Résumé Les mutants au locusm de l'Arabidopsis ne réussissent pas à former de chloroplastes normaux dans certaines conditions et montrent des activités plus hautes en synthèse de pyrimidines que le témoin. La nutrition aseptique par 6-azauracile, inhibiteur spécifique de cette voie métabolique, restaure la différenciatin de structure lamellaire dans la plupart de ces organites, mais aux concentrations élevées, apparaissent des chloroplastes morphologiquement déviants, quoique de fonction efficace.     

Dynamics of the amphibian middle ear.

Using laser speckle interferometry, we show that the directional information of acoustic signals is encoded in the motion of eardrum. Moreover, the frequency sensitivity of the auditory system is determined by the mechanical properties of the middle ear, which acts like a damped resonator.     

Statistical issues and approaches in endophenotype research

The endophenotype concept was initially proposed to enhance the power of genetic studies of complex disorders. It is closely related to the genetic component in a liability-threshold model; a perfect endophenotype should have a correlation of 1 with the genetic component of the liability to disease. In reality, a putative endophenotype is unlikely to be a perfect representation of the genetic component of disease liability. The magnitude of the correlation between a putative endophenotype and the genetic co...     

Mitochondrial dysfunction in Drosophila PINK1 mutants is complemented by parkin

Autosomal recessive juvenile parkinsonism (AR-JP) is an early-onset form of Parkinson's disease characterized by motor disturbances and dopaminergic neurodegeneration. To address its underlying molecular pathogenesis, we generated and characterized loss-of-function mutants of Drosophila PTEN-induced putative kinase 1 (PINK1), a novel AR-JP-linked gene. Here, we show that PINK1 mutants exhibit indirect flight muscle and dopaminergic neuronal degeneration accompanied by locomotive defects. Furthermore, transmission electron microscopy analysis and a rescue experiment with Drosophila Bcl-2 demonstrated that mitochondrial dysfunction accounts for the degenerative changes in all phenotypes of PINK1 mutants. Notably, we also found that PINK1 mutants share marked phenotypic similarities with parkin mutants. Transgenic expression of Parkin markedly ameliorated all PINK1 loss-of-function phenotypes, but not vice versa, suggesting that Parkin functions downstream of PINK1. Taken together, our genetic evidence clearly establishes that Parkin and PINK1 act in a common pathway in maintaining mitochondrial integrity and function in both muscles and dopaminergic neurons.     

Sequence and analysis of chromosome 1 of the plant Arabidopsis thaliana

The genome of the flowering plant Arabidopsis thaliana has five chromosomes. Here we report the sequence of the largest, chromosome 1, in two contigs of around 14.2 and 14.6 megabases. The contigs extend from the telomeres to the centromeric borders, regions rich in transposons, retrotransposons and repetitive elements such as the 180-base-pair repeat. The chromosome represents 25% of the genome and contains about 6,850 open reading frames, 236 transfer RNAs (tRNAs) and 12 small nuclear RNAs. There are two clusters of tRNA genes at different places on the chromosome. One consists of 27 tRNA(Pro) genes and the other contains 27 tandem repeats of tRNA(Tyr)-tRNA(Tyr)-tRNA(Ser) genes. Chromosome 1 contains about 300 gene families with clustered duplications. There are also many repeat elements, representing 8% of the sequence.