Decision trees for forecasting

Recent years have seen an increasing cross-fertilization between the fields of decision analysis and forecasting. Decision-analytic models often require forecasts as inputs, and aspects of the Bayesian decision-theoretic framework underlying decision analysis have proved useful to forecasting, particularly in contexts where subjective judgemental inputs are required. This paper describes the use of decision tree analysis for forecasting and illustrates its use for corporate divisional forecasting and planning. A specialized decision-analytic technique, acts as events, is also described and illustrated to forecast a new product's earnings. Conclusions are drawn about the applicability of decision analysis for forecasting.     

Indoxyl derivatives of drug metabolites

Summary Indoxyl derivatives were detected as minor products among the urinary metabolites of two trial drugs, a benzodiazepine (GP 55 129) and a benzophenone (CGP 11 952). Their structures were elucidated by NMR and mass spectroscopy. Presumably, metabolites containing potential aldehyde functions react spontaneously with endogenous indoxyl. Such derivatives have not hitherto been encountered in drug metabolism.     

Coalignment of vimentin intermediate filaments with microtubules depends on kinesin.

Intermediate filaments in most types of cultured cells coalign with microtubules. Depolymerization of microtubules results in collapse of vimentin and desmin intermediate filaments to the nucleus where they form a perinuclear cap. Collapse can also be induced by microinjection of antibodies against intermediate filament or microtubule proteins. Thus, two filament systems interact with each other. But the molecules mediating this interaction are unknown. One of the candidates for this role is a microtubule motor kinesin. Recent data showed that kinesin is involved in the plus end-directed movement of the membranous organelles along microtubules such as radial extension of lysosomes in macrophages and centrifugal movement of pigment in melanophores. Here we report that injection of the anti-kinesin antibody into human fibroblasts results in the redistribution of intermediate filaments to a tight perinuclear aggregate but had no effect on the distribution of microtubules. Thus, kinesin is involved not only in organelle movement but also in interaction of the two major cytoskeletal systems, intermediate filaments and microtubules.     

MeV Pb离子在非晶Si中的射程离散──离子束混合和增强扩散的影响

１．０ＭｅＶ２０８Ｐｂ离子在非晶Ｓｉ中的投影射程ＲＰ和射程偏差ΔＲＰ作为注量和温度二者的函数用背散射法进行测定．注量的变化范围为５×１０１３～７×１０１４ｃｍ－２．注入是在室温和ｔ＝－１２０℃下完成的．由由实验所确定的投影射程，射程偏差与注量或温度无关，并且分别等于２９５和７２．２ｎｍ．与ＴＲＩＭ８６的计算结果相比较，发现ＲＰ的偏离为１８％，而ΔＲＰ的偏离为３６％．ＲＰ和ΔＲＰ二者与注量及温度的无关性，排除了所观察到的与ＴＲＩＭ的矛盾是由于注入期间辐射增强扩散或离子束混合效应而引起的解释。     

Aspirin-like drugs may block pain independently of prostaglandin synthesis inhibition

Summary Using flurbiprofen, a chiral anti-inflammatory and analgesic 2-arylpropionic acid derivative, the enantiomers of which are not converted to each other (less than 5%) in rats or man, we obtained evidence that prostaglandin synthesis inhibition is primarily mediating the anti-inflammatory activity but prostaglandin synthesis independent mechanisms contribute to the analgesic effects. Thus, the S-form inhibited prostaglandin synthesis, inflammation and nociception in rats. The R-form had much less effect on prostaglandin synthesis and did not affect inflammation. It did, however, block nociception in rats almost as potently as the S-form. S-flurbiprofen, in contrast to the R-form, was clearly ulcerogenic in the gastrointestinal mucosa. These results indicate additional molecular mechanisms of analgesia and suggest the use of R-arylpropionic acids as analgesics.     

Development and function of T cells in mice rendered interleukin-2 deficient by gene targeting.

Interleukin-2 (IL-2) is a lymphocytotropic hormone which is thought to have a key role in the immune response of mammalian cells. It is produced by a subpopulation of activated T-lymphocytes and acts in vitro as the principal auto- and paracrine T-cell growth factor (for reviews see refs 1-3). IL-2 is, however, not the sole T-cell growth factor, nor does it act exclusively on T cells, also promoting growth of NK cells and differentiation of B cells. A role for IL-2 in T-cell development has been postulated but remains controversial. Here we test the requirement for IL-2 in vivo using IL-2-deficient mice generated by targeted recombination. We find that mice homozygous for the IL-2 gene mutation are normal with regard to thymocyte and peripheral T-cell subset composition, but that a dysregulation of the immune system is manifested by reduced polyclonal in vitro T-cell responses and by dramatic changes in the isotype levels of serum immunoglobulins.     

A small GTP-binding protein dissociates from synaptic vesicles during exocytosis.

Low-molecular-weight GTP-binding proteins are strong candidates for regulators of membrane traffic. In yeast, mutations in the sec4 or ypt1 genes encoding small GTP-binding proteins inhibit constitutive membrane flow at the plasma membrane or Golgi complex, respectively. It has been suggested that membrane fusion-fission events are regulated by cycling of small GTP-binding proteins between a membrane-bound and free state, but although most of these small proteins are found in both soluble and tightly membrane-bound forms, there is no direct evidence to support such cycling. In rat brain a small GTP-binding protein, rab3A, is exclusively associated with synaptic vesicles, the secretory organelles of nerve terminals. Here we use isolated nerve terminals to study the fate of rab3A during synaptic vesicle exocytosis. We find that rab3A dissociates quantitatively from the vesicle membrane after Ca2(+)-dependent exocytosis and that this dissociation is partially reversible during recovery after stimulation. These results are direct evidence for an association-dissociation cycle of a small GTP-binding protein during traffic of its host membrane.     

Subset threshold autoregression

We develop in this paper an efficient way to select the best subset threshold autoregressive model. The proposed method uses a stochastic search idea. Differing from most conventional approaches, our method does not require us to fix the delay or the threshold parameters in advance. By adopting the Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, we can identify the best subset model from a very large of number of possible models, and at the same time estimate the unknown parameters. A simulation experiment shows that the method is very effective. In its application to the US unemployment rate, the stochastic search method successfully selects lag one as the time delay and five best models from more than 4000 choices. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Structure of the detoxification catalyst mercuric ion reductase from Bacillus sp. strain RC607

Several hundred million tons of toxic mercurials are dispersed in the biosphere. Microbes can detoxify organo-mercurials and mercury salts through sequential action of two enzymes, organomercury lyase and mercuric ion reductase (MerA). The latter, a homodimer with homology to the FAD-dependent disulphide oxidoreductases, catalyses the reaction NADPH + Hg(II)----NADP+ + H+ + Hg(0), one of the very rare enzymic reactions with metal substrates. Human glutathione reductase serves as a reference molecule for FAD-dependent disulphide reductases and between its primary structure and that of MerA from Tn501 (Pseudomonas), Tn21 (Shigella), p1258 (Staphylococcus) and Bacillus, 25-30% of the residues have been conserved. All MerAs have a C-terminal extension about 15 residues long but have very varied N termini. Although the enzyme from Streptomyces lividans has no addition, from Pseudomonas aeruginosa Tn501 and Bacillus sp. strain RC607 it has one and two copies respectively of a domain of 80-85 residues, highly homologous to MerP, the periplasmic component of proteins encoded by the mer operon. These domains can be proteolytically cleaved off without changing the catalytic efficiency. We report here the crystal structure of MerA from the Gram-positive bacterium Bacillus sp. strain RC607. Analysis of its complexes with nicotinamide dinucleotide substrates and the inhibitor Cd(II) reveals how limited structural changes enable an enzyme to accept as substrate what used to be a dangerous inhibitor. Knowledge of the mode of mercury ligation is a prerequisite for understanding this unique detoxification mechanism.