A re‐examination of the excess smoothness puzzle when consumers estimate the income process

The excess smoothness puzzle is explored using a simple version of the permanent income hypothesis. The new feature is that consumers do not know the observed data‐generating process for income. Instead they estimate the income process every period using the past income data and update their income forecasts as new data arrive. Two scenarios are examined: first, where the income has a linear deterministic trend and second, where the income has a constant trend. There is a misspecification bias in the estimate of the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). This bias is of second‐order importance in the first scenario while it is of first‐order importance in the second. We conclude that the second scenario, which may be relevant for less developed countries, may offer a potential solution to the excess smoothness puzzle. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Theory-ladenness of evidence: a case study from history of chemistry

This paper attempts to argue for the theory-ladenness of evidence. It does so by employing and analysing an episode from the history of eighteenth century chemistry. It delineates attempts by Joseph Priestley and Antoine Lavoisier to construct entirely different kinds of evidence for and against a particular hypothesis from a set of agreed upon observations or (raw) data. Based on an augmented version of a distinction, drawn by J. Bogen and J. Woodward, between data and phenomena it is shown that the role of theoretical auxiliary assumptions is very important in constructing evidence for (or against) a theory from observation or (raw) data. In revolutionary situations, rival groups hold radically different theories and theoretical auxiliary assumptions. These are employed to construct very different evidence from the agreed upon set of observations or (raw) data. Hence, theory resolution becomes difficult. It is argued that evidence construction is a multi-layered exercise and can be disputed at any level. What counts as unproblematic observation or (raw) data at one level may become problematic at another level. The contingency of these constructions and the (un)problematic nature of evidence are shown to be partially dependent upon the scientific knowledge that the scientific community possesses.     

Chemistry of kutkin,isolated fromPicrorhiza kurroa Royle ex Benth

Zusammenfassung Neuer Strukturvorschlag für kutkin, den Inhaltstoff einer indischen HeilpflanzePicrorhiza kurroa Royle ex Benth.     

Toxic substances produced byFusarium. III. Production and screening of phytotoxic substances ofF. oxysporum f. sp.carthami responsible for the wilt disease of safflowerCarthamus tinctorius Linn.

Summary Fusarium oxysporum f. sp.carthami, a causative agent for the wilt disease of safflower (Carthamus tinctorius Linn.), has been shown to produce diacetoxyscirpenol, T-2 toxin, fusaric acid and lycomarasmin in artificial media. These substances produced disease syndromes, similar to those seen after the natural infection, when administered in healthy plants. Diacetoxyscirpenol and T-2 toxin have been detected in diseased safflower plants after inoculating with the wilt pathogen. This study is the first demonstration of vivotoxicity of diacetoxyscirpenol.