Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Induction, suppression and requirement of RNA silencing pathways in virulent Agrobacterium tumefaciens infections

Regulation of gene expression through microRNAs (miRNAs) and antiviral defense through small interfering RNAs (siRNAs) are aspects of RNA silencing, a process originally discovered as an unintended consequence of plant transformation by disarmed Agrobacterium tumefaciens strains. Although RNA silencing protects cells against foreign genetic elements, its defensive role against virulent, tumor-inducing bacteria has remained unexplored. Here, we show that siRNAs corresponding to transferred-DNA oncogenes initially accumulate in virulent A. tumefaciens-infected tissues and that RNA interference-deficient plants are hypersusceptible to the pathogen. Successful infection relies on a potent antisilencing state established in tumors whereby siRNA synthesis is specifically inhibited. This inhibition has only modest side effects on the miRNA pathway, shown here to be essential for disease development. The similarities and specificities of the A. tumefaciens RNA silencing interaction are discussed and contrasted with the situation encountered with plant viruses.     

Articulated Estimator Random Field and Geometrical Approach Applied in System Identification

A new point of view of robust statistics based on a geometrical approach is tackled in this paper. Estimation procedures are carried out from a new robust cost function based on a chaining of elementary convex norms. This chain is randomly articulated in order to treat more efficiently natural outliers in data-set. Estimated parameters are considered as random fields and each of them, named articulated estimator random field (AERF) is a manifold or stratum of a stratified space with Riemannian geometry properties. From a high level excursion set, a probability distribution model M^sta is presented and a system model validation geometric criterion (SYMOVAGEC) for system model structures M^sys based on Riccian scalar curvatures is proposed. Numerical results are drawn in a context of system identification.     

From Cubist Simultaneity to Quantum Complementarity

This article offers a contribution to the history of scientific ideas by proposing an epistemological argument supporting the assumption made by Miller whereby Niels Bohr has been influenced by cubism (Jean Metzinger) when he developed his non-intuitive complementarity principle. More specifically, this essay will identify the Bergsonian durée as the conceptual bridge between Metzinger and Bohr. Beyond this conceptual link between the painter and the physicist, this paper aims to emphasize the key role played by art in the development of human knowledge.     

Data Mining the Intellectual Revival of ‘Catastrophic’ Mother Nature

Earth-shaping catastrophic events have long focused the attention of the geographical and geological sciences, and captured the public imagination. During the past 40 years, neocatastrophism has emerged as a key paradigm that reflects widespread changes involving cultural, scientific, political and technological spheres. Nonetheless, the extent, chronology and origin of this trend are equivocal. Here, we use Google Ngram to quantitatively explore the recent development of catastrophism. We elucidate a discernable rise in neocatastrophic thinking during the last quarter of the twenty-first century that can be linked to the environmental awakening of the 1960s. It is suggested that these discourses of ‘shock’ and ‘fear’ partly correspond to a media-driven dramatization of natural hazards, exploited by scientists and journalists to attract wider readership.     

An extrasolar planetary system with three Neptune-mass planets

Over the past two years, the search for low-mass extrasolar planets has led to the detection of seven so-called 'hot Neptunes' or 'super-Earths' around Sun-like stars. These planets have masses 5-20 times larger than the Earth and are mainly found on close-in orbits with periods of 2-15 days. Here we report a system of three Neptune-mass planets with periods of 8.67, 31.6 and 197 days, orbiting the nearby star HD 69830. This star was already known to show an infrared excess possibly caused by an asteroid belt within 1 au (the Sun-Earth distance). Simulations show that the system is in a dynamically stable configuration. Theoretical calculations favour a mainly rocky composition for both inner planets, while the outer planet probably has a significant gaseous envelope surrounding its rocky/icy core; the outer planet orbits within the habitable zone of this star.     

Photonics: tuning holes in photonic-crystal nanocavities

One challenge in photonics is strongly to confine light in small volumes in order to increase light-matter interaction. Akahane et al. propose a new concept for increasing the lifetime of this interaction, based on tailoring of the Fourier spectrum of cavity modes, which they believe is demonstrated by the surprising enhancement (roughly tenfold) of the quality factor Q of the cavity as a result of fine-tuning the mirror-hole geometry in a photonic-crystal nanocavity. Here we question the validity of their concept and argue that the improvement in Q is due to an increase in the impedance wave matching at the cavity edges and to a slow-wave effect. This alternative interpretation opens the way to new cavity designs.     

Cytosolic pH regulates root water transport during anoxic stress through gating of aquaporins

Flooding of soils results in acute oxygen deprivation (anoxia) of plant roots during winter in temperate latitudes, or after irrigation, and is a major problem for agriculture. One early response of plants to anoxia and other environmental stresses is downregulation of water uptake due to inhibition of the water permeability (hydraulic conductivity) of roots (Lp(r)). Root water uptake is mediated largely by water channel proteins (aquaporins) of the plasma membrane intrinsic protein (PIP) subgroup. These aquaporins may mediate stress-induced inhibition of Lp(r) but the mechanisms involved are unknown. Here we delineate the whole-root and cell bases for inhibition of water uptake by anoxia and link them to cytosol acidosis. We also uncover a molecular mechanism for aquaporin gating by cytosolic pH. Because it is conserved in all PIPs, this mechanism provides a basis for explaining the inhibition of Lp(r) by anoxia and possibly other stresses. More generally, our work opens new routes to explore pH-dependent cell signalling processes leading to regulation of water transport in plant tissues or in animal epithelia.     

Predictive models of molecular machines involved in Caenorhabditis elegans early embryogenesis

Although numerous fundamental aspects of development have been uncovered through the study of individual genes and proteins, system-level models are still missing for most developmental processes. The first two cell divisions of Caenorhabditis elegans embryogenesis constitute an ideal test bed for a system-level approach. Early embryogenesis, including processes such as cell division and establishment of cellular polarity, is readily amenable to large-scale functional analysis. A first step toward a system-level understanding is to provide 'first-draft' models both of the molecular assemblies involved and of the functional connections between them. Here we show that such models can be derived from an integrated gene/protein network generated from three different types of functional relationship: protein interaction, expression profiling similarity and phenotypic profiling similarity, as estimated from detailed early embryonic RNA interference phenotypes systematically recorded for hundreds of early embryogenesis genes. The topology of the integrated network suggests that C. elegans early embryogenesis is achieved through coordination of a limited set of molecular machines. We assessed the overall predictive value of such molecular machine models by dynamic localization of ten previously uncharacterized proteins within the living embryo.