Recalcificationin vitro de l'os compact décalcifié

Summary We report the possibility of recalcifying decalcified sections of adult compact bone. Recalcification occurs mainly in those osteons which had a low calcium contentin vivo.     

Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic

Development of strategies for mitigating the severity of a new influenza pandemic is now a top global public health priority. Influenza prevention and containment strategies can be considered under the broad categories of antiviral, vaccine and non-pharmaceutical (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel) measures. Mathematical models are powerful tools for exploring this complex landscape of intervention strategies and quantifying the potential costs and benefits of different options. Here we use a large-scale epidemic simulation to examine intervention options should initial containment of a novel influenza outbreak fail, using Great Britain and the United States as examples. We find that border restrictions and/or internal travel restrictions are unlikely to delay spread by more than 2-3 weeks unless more than 99% effective. School closure during the peak of a pandemic can reduce peak attack rates by up to 40%, but has little impact on overall attack rates, whereas case isolation or household quarantine could have a significant impact, if feasible. Treatment of clinical cases can reduce transmission, but only if antivirals are given within a day of symptoms starting. Given enough drugs for 50% of the population, household-based prophylaxis coupled with reactive school closure could reduce clinical attack rates by 40-50%. More widespread prophylaxis would be even more logistically challenging but might reduce attack rates by over 75%. Vaccine stockpiled in advance of a pandemic could significantly reduce attack rates even if of low efficacy. Estimates of policy effectiveness will change if the characteristics of a future pandemic strain differ substantially from those seen in past pandemics.     

Episodic outgassing as the origin of atmospheric methane on Titan

Saturn's largest satellite, Titan, has a massive nitrogen atmosphere containing up to 5 per cent methane near its surface. Photochemistry in the stratosphere would remove the present-day atmospheric methane in a few tens of millions of years. Before the Cassini-Huygens mission arrived at Saturn, widespread liquid methane or mixed hydrocarbon seas hundreds of metres in thickness were proposed as reservoirs from which methane could be resupplied to the atmosphere over geologic time. Titan fly-by observations and ground-based observations rule out the presence of extensive bodies of liquid hydrocarbons at present, which means that methane must be derived from another source over Titan's history. Here we show that episodic outgassing of methane stored as clathrate hydrates within an icy shell above an ammonia-enriched water ocean is the most likely explanation for Titan's atmospheric methane. The other possible explanations all fail because they cannot explain the absence of surface liquid reservoirs and/or the low dissipative state of the interior. On the basis of our models, we predict that future fly-bys should reveal the existence of both a subsurface water ocean and a rocky core, and should detect more cryovolcanic edifices.     

Linear signal extraction with intervention techniques in non-linear time series

Seasonal adjustment is performed in some data-producing agencies according to the ARIMA-model-based signal extraction theory. A stochastic linear process parametrized in terms of an ARIMA model is first fitted to the series, and from this model the models for the trend, cycle, seasonal, and irregular component can be derived. A spectrum is associated to every component model and is used to compute the optimal Wiener–Kolmogorov filter. Since the modelling is linear, prior linearization of the series with intervention techniques is performed. This paper discusses the performance of linear signal extraction with intervention techniques in non-linear processes. In particular, the following issues are discussed: (1) the ability of intervention techniques to linearize time series which present non-linearities; (2) the stability of the linear projection giving the components estimators under non-linear misspecifications; (3) the capacity of the WK filter to preserve the linearity in some components and the non-linearities in others. Copyright © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optical turbulence profiling with single star SCIDAR technique

In order to characterize optical turbulence, we have developed a single star SCIDAR （SSS） for measurement of the distribution of Cn^2 with height. The SSS consists of a 40 cm telescope and a CCD camera for fast sampling of stellar scintillation pattern. Spatio- temporal auto and cross-correlation functions of the single star images are computed, providing vertical profiles of optical turbulence intensity C2（h） and wind speed V（h）. Using this new SSS experiment, profiles of turbulence can be obtained from the ground to the top of atmosphere, allowing the determination of seeing, isoplanatic angle and coherence time. Detailed characteristics of atmospheric optical turbulence are important for active and passive imaging, astronomical site testing, adaptive optics, laser communications, target tracking and designation, and laser beam control. We plan to improve the robotization of the SSS to be able to use it routinely even under harsh weather and altitude conditions that we expect to encounter on the high Tibetan plateau or at Dome A in Antarctica. SSS will also be applied for the site testing campaign of the future Chinese extremely large telescope.     

Testing Interval Forecasts: A GMM‐Based Approach

This paper proposes a new evaluation framework for interval forecasts. Our model‐free test can be used to evaluate interval forecasts and high‐density regions, potentially discontinuous and/or asymmetric. Using a simple J‐statistic, based on the moments defined by the orthonormal polynomials associated with the binomial distribution, this new approach presents many advantages. First, its implementation is extremely easy. Second, it allows for a separate test for unconditional coverage, independence and conditional coverage hypotheses. Third, Monte Carlo simulations show that for realistic sample sizes our GMM test has good small‐sample properties. These results are corroborated by an empirical application on SP500 and Nikkei stock market indexes. It confirms that using this GMM test leads to major consequences for the ex post evaluation of interval forecasts produced by linear versus nonlinear models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

PNPLA1 mutations cause autosomal recessive congenital ichthyosis in golden retriever dogs and humans

Ichthyoses comprise a heterogeneous group of genodermatoses characterized by abnormal desquamation over the whole body, for which the genetic causes of several human forms remain unknown. We used a spontaneous dog model in the golden retriever breed, which is affected by a lamellar ichthyosis resembling human autosomal recessive congenital ichthyoses (ARCI), to carry out a genome-wide association study. We identified a homozygous insertion-deletion (indel) mutation in PNPLA1 that leads to a premature stop codon in all affected golden retriever dogs. We subsequently found one missense and one nonsense mutation in the catalytic domain of human PNPLA1 in six individuals with ARCI from two families. Further experiments highlighted the importance of PNPLA1 in the formation of the epidermal lipid barrier. This study identifies a new gene involved in human ichthyoses and provides insights into the localization and function of this yet uncharacterized member of the PNPLA protein family.