On the limitations of comparing mean square forecast errors

Linear models are invariant under non-singular, scale-preserving linear transformations, whereas mean square forecast errors (MSFEs) are not. Different rankings may result across models or methods from choosing alternative yet isomorphic representations of a process. One approach can dominate others for comparisons in levels, yet lose to another for differences, to a second for cointegrating vectors and to a third for combinations of variables. The potential for switches in ranking is related to criticisms of the inadequacy of MSFE against encompassing criteria, which are invariant under linear transforms and entail MSFE dominance. An invariant evaluation criterion which avoids misleading outcomes is examined in a Monte Carlo study of forecasting methods.     

The humoral immune response to heat shock proteins.

Humoral immune reactions to heat shock proteins (hsp) from microorganisms are one aspect of microbial infections in humans. The production of antibodies which are specific to epitopes present on procaryotic hsp leads also to the appearance of cross-reactive serum antibodies in the host organism that react with human hsp. This article discusses the consequences of such autoreactive antibodies for the host in context with the development of immune tolerance and autoimmune diseases, especially rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and in experimental animal models for arthritis such as adjuvant arthritis in rats. On the basis of epitope cross-reactivity between hsp and other host proteins, a hypothesis is presented for the development of autoimmune disease following the production of hsp-specific antibodies.     

灰铸铁的应力屈服曲面及其三维热弹塑性应力解析

对原有的灰铸铁件应力屈服曲面进行了合理的简化,使其在理论上合理,工程应用上更为方便。建立了灰铸铁件三维非稳态热弹塑性应力场的有限元方法。以灰铸铁哑铃件为对象,用新屈服曲面对其应力发展过程进行了模拟,且比较了用新旧屈服面计算得到的结果。     

Choroidal and iris angioarchitecture of the newt: A scanning electron-microscopic study of vascular corrosion casts

The corrosion cast technique provided for the first time an excellent three-dimensional visualization of the vascular pattern of the choroid and iris in the newt eye. The results show the presence of a single arterial afference to the choroidal and iris capillaries: the ophthalmic artery is the origin fo both ciliary arteries and the long posterior ciliary artery. Slightly behind the equatorial circumference of the eyeball the venous drainage consists of a single vessel on the dorsal side and two distinct vessels on the ventral one. It receives blood from both iris and choroid. The surface of the plastic endocasts shows some details of fine luminal structures of the endothelial cells. Shallow depressions may be regarded as imprints of endothelial cell nuclei, and they are distinctly different for arteries and capillaries. The angioarchitecture of the newt eye differs from that of brain in that hairpin-shaped capillary loops are not observed at all.     

Phenological studies of selected savanna mosses of south-western Nigeria

It was established that there is little diversity of bryophytes in the derived savanna. Mosses were found in the sampling sites, whereas liverworts were rarely observed. The reproductive methods of four dominant sexually reproducing savanna mosses —Archidium ohioense, Bryum coronatum, Fissidens minutifolius andTrachycarpidium tisserantii were monitored over two consecutive rainy seasons. Protonemal and gametophyte production were noticed in the field in March/April, and capsule dehiscence and spore dispersal occurred in September/October. The sequential stages of development, starting with gametangial production and ending with the falling of the dehisced capsules, occurred within the rainy season. However,A. ohioense andT. tisserantii did not discharge their spores easily (cleistocarpous), unlike the stegocarpous speciesB. coronatum andF. minutifolius. Water availability and possibly high humidity may have contributed to growth. The short period between sex organ formation and dehiscence of capsule seen in these studies, compared with the longer period in some temperate mosses, may be an advantage for bryophytes in a savanna environment.     

Are you growing systems thinking managers? Use a systems model to teach and practice organizational analysis and planning,management policy,and organizational development

This paper discusses the use of the Kast and Rosenzweig systems and contingency model for teaching and practice in organizational analysis and planning, management policy, and organizational development. The need for an organizational model for graduate students and field-based managers and executives is identified. The model is presented beginning with the Kast and Rosenzweig work, with integration of research by Daft, Schein, Trist, Deal and Kennedy, Ackoff, Delbecq, and Mintzberg. The teaching and practice uses of the model in four areas are presented, including organizational analysis and planning, management policy making, and organizational development. In each area case examples of the use of the model in teaching and practice are presented. Needs for future research and implications for the use of the model are discussed.     

Activation of a C. elegans Antennapedia homologue in migrating cells controls their direction of migration.

Anterior-posterior patterning in insects, vertebrates and nematodes involves members of conserved Antennapedia-class homeobox gene clusters (HOM-C) that are thought to give specific body regions their identities. The effects of these genes on region-specific body structures have been described extensively, particularly in Drosophila, but little is known about how HOM-C genes affect the behaviours of cells that migrate into their domains of function. In Caenorhabditis elegans, the Antennapedia-like HOM-C gene mab-5 not only specifies postembryonic fates of cells in a posterior body region, but also influences the migration of mesodermal and neural cells that move through this region. Here we show that as one neuroblast migrates into this posterior region, it switches on mab-5 gene expression; mab-5 then acts as a developmental switch to control the migratory behaviour of the neuroblast descendants. HOM-C genes can therefore not only direct region-specific patterns of cell division and differentiation, but can also act within migrating cells to programme region-specific migratory behaviour.     

Resistant orthogonal procrustes analysis

In this paper two alternative loss criteria for the least squares Procrustes problem are studied. These alternative criteria are based on the Huber function and on the more radical biweight function, which are designed to be resistant to outliers. Using iterative majorization it is shown how a convergent reweighted least squares algorithm can be developed. In asimulation study it turns out that the proposed methods perform well over a specific range of contamination. When a uniform dilation factor is included, mixed results are obtained. The methods also yield a set of weights that can be used for diagnostic purposes.     

Exocytotic fusion is activated by Rab3a peptides.

Studies of intracellular traffic in yeast and mammalian systems have implicated members of the Rab family of small GTP-binding proteins as regulators of membrane fusion. We have used the patch clamp technique to measure exocytotic fusion events directly and investigate the role of GTP-binding proteins in regulating exocytosis in mast cells. Intracellular perfusion of mast cells with GTP-gamma S is sufficient to trigger complete exocytotic degranulation in the absence of other intracellular messengers. Here we show that GTP is a potent inhibitor of GTP-gamma S-induced degranulation, indicating that sustained activation of a GTP-binding protein is sufficient for membrane fusion. We have found that synthetic oligopeptides, corresponding to part of the effector domain of Rab3a, stimulate complete exocytotic degranulation, similar to that induced by GTP-gamma S. The response is selective for Rab3a sequence and is strictly dependent on Mg2+ and ATP. This suggests that sustained activation of a Rab3 protein causes exocytotic fusion. The peptide response can be accelerated by GDP-beta S, suggesting that Rab3a peptides compete with endogenous Rab3 proteins for a binding site on a target effector protein, which causes fusion on activation.