联合作战仿真应用中的想定系统框架

想定是军事活动的产物，随之成为军事仿真领域不可缺少的重要组成部分，其地位在仿真发展中显得日益重要，想定模型是想定在军事仿真中想定的数字化表述，想定系统是支撑想定模型的软件系统，本文就联合作战仿真应用中的对想定模型和想定系统提出的要求进行探讨，提出适合这种应用的基于一致的想定数据模型的想定系统的功能描述和系统框架。     

基于HLA和GIS的作战想定整合与态势演播

HLA是近几年发展起来的一种体系结构标准，介绍了将HLA/RTI和网络GIS的集成研究成果及其用于想定整合与态势演播取得的有益实验结果。     

基于STIRPAT模型的京津冀“碳达峰”预测研究

为了解决京津冀地区碳排放量达峰问题,以河北省为例,研究京津冀碳排放达峰实现路径,对京津冀未来的碳排放量进行预测分析,建立以河北省2004—2021年碳排放相关数据为基础的STIRPAT碳排放预测拓展模型。设置了6个情景,通过综合考虑人口规模、人均GDP、城镇化率、产业结构、能源强度、能源结构数据的变化速度,模拟不同情景下京津冀2022—2040年的碳排放趋势,进而预测京津冀三地的“碳达峰”时间与碳排放峰值。结果表明：北京除清洁发展情景是在2030年达峰,其余情景均在2035年达到峰值;天津除经济放缓情景是在2030年达峰,其余情景均在2035年实现“碳达峰”;河北除基准情景在2035年达峰外,其余情景均是在2030年达到峰值。所提的碳排放预测拓展模型在考虑多情景分析下,就京津冀地区如何控制和减少碳排放量提出相关建议,可为京津冀低碳经济的发展提供一定的参考依据。     

情景模型法及其在坐便器设计中的应用

介绍了情景模型研究法及其在产品设计中的应用，并提供了坐便器的设计案例，在其设计中情景模型方法起到了指导作用。情景模型法为产品设计者提供了分析与研究人的因素的有效辅助手段。情景模型是对传统人机工程学方法有价值的追加，是有效的标准研究模型与交流工具。在启发以使用者为中心的设计思想、从使用者的角度评价设计方案、在使用过程中展示产品的角色等方面都十分有效。尤其在产品设计的早期阶段，这样的努力将有助于确立以使用者为中心的设计。     

基于LEAP的中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力分析

为了评估中国钢铁行业CO2减排潜力,利用长期能源替代规划系统(long range energy a lternatives p lann ingsystem,LEAP)软件建立了LEAPCh ina模型。用该模型模拟了3个不同情景下中国钢铁行业2000—2030年CO2排放量及相应的减排潜力。根据减排成本评估其可行性并识别重点减排技术。模拟结果表明,相对基准情景,当前政策情景和新政策情景下的年均CO2减排量分别为0.51亿t和1.07亿t,所需要的总的额外资金投入分别为93.4亿美元和809.49亿美元。因此,钢铁行业具有一定的CO2减排潜力,实现减排主要通过行业结构调整和技术进步。如果目前制定的政策措施得到有效实施,那么可以以较低的成本实现减排;但是进一步的减排受制于高昂的成本。     

Strategic Robust Mixed Model Assembly Line Balancing Based on Scenario Planning

Assembly line balancing involves assigning a series of task elements to uniform sequential stations with certain restrictions. Decision makers often discover that a task assignment which is optimal with respect to a deterministic or stochastic/fuzzy model yields quite poor performance in reality. In real environments, assembly line balancing robustness is a more appropriate decision selection guide. A robust model based on the α worst case scenario is developed to compensate for the drawbacks of traditional robust criteria. A robust genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem. Comprehensive computational experiments to study the effect of the solution procedure show that the model generates more flexible robust solutions. Careful tuning the value of α allows the decision maker to balance robustness and conservativeness of as- sembly line task element assignments.     

基于系统动力学的企业物流外包耦合情景分析

物流外包策略是影响企业长期利润的重要因素.通过分析物流外包方案与企业现状之间的相互制约、相互影响的关系,及其对企业长期利润的耦合影响,建立基于系统动力学的企业物流外包决策模型,并进行了模型有效性检验.该模型在企业现状和发展战略环境下定量决策物流的分环节部分外包方案,具有非线性和动态特征.通过进行情景仿真分析,探讨了物流外包决策与企业战略对长期利润的耦合影响,分析结果证明几种典型的发展模式都具有显著的比较优势和缺陷,企业应根据自身实际,选择合适的发展模式以优化物流外包决策和长期利润.     

多媒体课件在教学实践中的应用

现代教育最重要的一点是应用多媒体课件来开展课堂教学.介绍了多媒体课件的概念、常见模式和应用环境,阐述了课件开发的一般流程,指出了课件开发应注意的事项.     

An Improved Model of Attack Probability Prediction System

This paper presents a novel probability generation algorithm to predict attacks from an insider who exploits known system vulnerabilities through executing authorized operations. It is different from most intrusion detection systems （IDSs） because these IDSs are inefficient to resolve threat from authorized insiders. To deter cracker activities, this paper introduces an improved structure of augmented attack tree and a notion of ＂minimal attack tree＂, and proposes a new generation algorithm of minimal attack tree. We can provide a quantitative approach to help system administrators make sound decision.     

Ecosystem vulnerability of China under B2 climate scenario in the 21st century

This paper applies climate change scenarios in China based on the SRES assumptions with the help of RCMs projections by PRECIS （providing regional climates for impacts studies） system introduced to China from.the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at a high-resolution （50 kmx50 km） over China. This research focuses on B2 scenario of SRES. A biogeochemical model ＂Atmosphere Vegetation Integrated Model （AVIM2）＂ was applied to simulating ecosystem status in the 21st century. Then vulnerability of ecosystems was assessed based on a set of index of mainly net primary production （NPP） of vegetation. Results show that climate change would affect ecosystem of China severely and there would be a worse trend with the lapse of time. The regions where having vulnerable ecological background would have heavier impacts while some regions with better ecological background would also receive serious impacts. Extreme climate even would bring about worse impact on the ecosystems. Open shrub and desert steppe would be the two most affected types. When the extreme events happen, vulnerable ecosystem would extend to part of defoliate broad-leaved forest, woody grassland and evergreen conifer forest. Climate change would not always be negative. It could be of some benefit to cold region during the near-term. However, in view of mid-term to long-term negative impact on ecosystem vulnerability would be enormously.