喷射转发算法:一种基于Markov位置预测模型的DTN路由算法

典型的容迟网络(DTN)场景常表现出大延迟、易中断、高误码率等特点,其中高效节能的路由算法更是一个亟待解决的问题.现有方法主要是通过发送多个副本来提高数据传输的可达性概率,但网络开销很大.为了同时兼顾成功投递率、网络延迟和网络开销,文中提出了基于Markov位置预测模型的DTN路由算法(喷射转发算法).该算法根据节点经过路径的历史信息,用2阶Markov预测机制预测目的节点可能的位置,针对该位置进行多路径的贪婪转发,使包有方向地扩散,减少网络中包的副本数.采用多副本转发的混合发送模式,在保证成功投递率的基础上,有效地减少包副本数,弥补了使用单一模式时不能兼顾网络开销和成功投递率的不足.仿真结果显示,在小节点密度、节点移动速度较快的网络环境下,与spray and wait算法相比,喷射转发算法能有效地提高成功传输率,减小网络开销.     

演化密码对抗差分密码分析能力的研究

演化密码是我国学者提出的一种新型密码体制.本文对演化密码对抗差分密码分析的能力进行了研究,研究表明演化密码对抗传统差分攻击的能力高于普通固定算法密码.本文在分析差分攻击的数据复杂度,最佳差分特征概率,比特优势以及预期成功率关系的基础上,证明了比特优势和预期成功率相同时,攻击演化密码的数据复杂度大于攻击固定算法密码的数据复杂度;并证明了在数据复杂度和预期成功率相同的情况下,攻击演化密码的时间复杂度明显高于攻击固定算法密码的时间复杂度.这表明演化密码对抗传统差分攻击的能力高于固定算法密码.     

非对称双向中继X网络中基于最大化和速率的干扰对齐与中继处理算法

双向中继X网络相对于传统无线通信网络可以实现更高的自由度.然而,基于迫零算法的中继处理算法仅考虑了消除干扰成分,忽略了对期望信号的影响,从而使得网络的和速率有待提高.特别地,当用户发送功率越低,其和速率劣势越明显.针对上述问题研究其干扰对齐方案,并给出了优化的联合考虑期望信号和干扰信号的中继处理算法.首先,通过利用用户矢量信号之间的空间关系,给出网络和速率的数学模型;其次,通过矩阵分析及数值分析理论将最大化网络和速率的中继预编码设计问题转化为线性搜索最优值问题,并用极限值方法近似网络目标函数;再次,进一步将双向网络的目标函数近似为单向网络用户参数的线性组合,大大降低算法复杂度;最后,基于优化的线性搜索最优值问题,得到最大化网络和速率的中继预编码矩阵.仿真结果表明:相较于现有的中继处理方案,本文方案明显改善了网络和速率,同时还简化了最大化网络和速率带来的算法复杂度.     

基于进化算法的递归神经网络系统辨识方法

针对传统的递归神经网络学习算法存在的缺陷,本文利用进化算法对递归神经网络进行优化设计,提出了一种基于改进进化算法的递归神经网络系统辨识方法.该方法利用高斯变异和柯西变异相结合的方式进行变异操作,利用个体适应度和种群多样性指标使交叉概率和变异概率进行自适应调整,可以保证变异操作按一定的幅度均匀地分布在整个网络上,提高算法的收敛速度,避免早熟现象.给出了算法的具体步骤,通过仿真实验证明了该算法的有效性.     

基于度相关性的病毒传播模型及其分析

近年来网络病毒传播已对网络安全构成严重威胁.研究表明,互联网宏观拓扑结构与病毒传播有很大关系.度相关性是互联网宏观拓扑的一个重要特征,度相关性的改变意味着互联网拓扑结构的变化.通过度相关特征分析,发现互联网的异配性呈现减弱趋势;本文使用DPR算法构造连续匹配系数的网络拓扑,以便在具有不同匹配系数上的网络上进行病毒传播实验,以此研究病毒的传播速度、稳态感染率、传播临界值;然后根据传统病毒传播模型SIS,建立了适合因特网上的病毒传播模型SIS-DVDI,并进行病毒传播实验,分析了病毒传播的稳态特性和瞬态特性;最后根据先前仿真实验得出的结论探讨了网络病毒的防护措施.     

雷达高分辨距离像闪烁现象机理分析

高分辨距离像(HRRP)的姿态敏感性是影响雷达自动目标识别性能的主要因素.传统理论分析认为: 在不发生散射点越距离单元走动(MTRC)的姿态内, HRRP 具有一定的稳定性, 相似度很高. 然而, 对暗室实测数据的观察表明: 即使没有发生散射点MTRC,HRRP 的相似度有时并不是很高, 而且会出现异常HRRP. 本文从基于散射点模型的HRRP 形成入手, 分析这些异常HRRP 的产生原因——闪烁现象. 建立了闪烁现象的数学模型并以此为基础分析了闪烁时HRRP 的“伪双峰”特点. 同时, 推导了闪烁现象的发生条件及发生概率随雷达载频的变化规律, 最后用暗室实测数据验证了文中关于闪烁现象的理论分析的正确性.     

日本用RNA片断成功抑制丙肝病毒

日本东京医科齿科大学和东京大学研究小组近日通过将丙肝病毒RNA(核糖核酸 )片断植入肝脏细胞 ,成功地抑制了丙肝病毒的增殖 ,对开发新的丙肝治疗方法大有帮助。这一成果在福冈市举行的日本肝脏学会年会上发表。据日本《朝日新闻》报道 ,研究人员利用的方法是“RNA干扰”治疗法 ,即用丙肝病毒自身的RNA片断抑制病毒的增殖。在实验中 ,研究人员给受丙肝病毒感染的人体肝脏细胞植入人工培育的丙肝病毒RNA片断 ,片断大小是病毒RNA的 1/ 5 0 0。结果发现 ,有 97%的丙肝病毒死亡。如果进一步使片断自我复制的话 ,8天后病毒便全部消失。在日…     

转录因子TCF7L2在HePG2细胞IDE表达调控中的作用

目的 TCF7L2是一种重要的转录因子,与2型糖尿病(T2DM)发生发展密切相关.本研究探讨慢病毒介导的RNA干扰抑制TCF7L2基因表达对人肝癌细胞株HePG2胰岛素降解酶(IDE)基因的影响.方法 以人TCF7L2 mRNA编码序列作为干扰靶点,构建TCF7L2特异性短发卡RNA慢病毒表达载体(LV-TCF7 L2-shRNA)感染HePG2细胞.应用实时定量PCR及Western blot检测转染后TCF7L2与IDE表达的变化.结果 成功构建TCF7L2 shRNA慢病毒载体LV-TCF7L2-shRNA.qPCR及Westem blot结果显示干扰组HePG2细胞TCF7L2和IDE mRNA及蛋白的表达水平较空白组及阴性对照组显著降低(P＜0.05).结论 LV-TCF7L2-shRNA载体有效地抑制了IDE的表达,结果证明TCF7L2是IDE表达调控中重要的转录因子,为探讨TCF7L2与IDE在2型糖尿病发病机制中的作用奠定了基础.     

主用户状态改变和低信噪比环境下的weight-p能量检测算法

在认知无线电网络中,主用户状态改变和低信噪比都会造成频谱检测的性能下降.本文提出了一种新的加权(weight-p)能量检测算法,用于抵抗主用户状态改变和低信噪比对认知用户检测性能的影响.为减少实现复杂性和节约需要的功耗,我们将weight-p能量检测器的最优权值建模成一个最小采样时间(MST)的优化问题,找出了最优权值和次优权值.仿真表明,在主用户状态改变和低信噪比的场景下,本文提出的weight-p能量检测算法可以提高认知用户的检测性能和降低虚警概率,并且在获得相同检测性能的前提下可以压缩检测时间.     

一种新的基于Jackson排队模型多中继跨层协作通信策略

文中提出了一种新的多中继协作通信策略,该策略基于Jackson排队模型同时对物理层(physicallayer,PHY)与媒体接入控制层(MAC)的跨层设计进行了分析.在物理层,重点探讨多中继节点情形下信噪比(SNR)门限与中断概率之间的关系.在MAC层,系统采用Jackson排队网络进行建模,单协作节点数据包排队准则为GI/M/1模型,多节点之间进行相互机会协作,进而分析了所提策略的系统吞吐量与时延性能.跨层设计仿真结果表明,在不同中继策略下,协作节点数的增加将影响物理层高频谱有效性区域的系统中断性能.此外,相对于传统两协作节点模型,所提策略可以达到显著的MAC层数据包吞吐量与时延性能.     

The effectiveness of imprecise probability forecasts

In this paper we investigate the feasibility of algorithmically deriving precise probability forecasts from imprecise forecasts. We provide an empirical evaluation of precise probabilities that have been derived from two types of imprecise probability forecasts: probability intervals and probability intervals with second-order probability distributions. The minimum cross-entropy (MCE) principle is applied to the former to derive precise (i.e. additive) probabilities; expectation (EX) is used to derive precise probabilities in the latter case. Probability intervals that were constructed without second-order probabilities tended to be narrower than and contained in those that were amplified by second-order probabilities. Evidence that this narrowness is due to motivational bias is presented. Analysis of forecasters' mean Probability Scores for the derived precise probabilities indicates that it is possible to derive precise forecasts whose external correspondence is as good as directly assessed precise probability forecasts. The forecasts of the EX method, however, are more like the directly assessed precise forecasts than those of the MCE method.     

What could be objective about probabilities?

The basic notion of an objective probability is that of a probability determined by the physical structure of the world. On this understanding, there are subjective credences that do not correspond to objective probabilities, such as credences concerning rival physical theories. The main question for objective probabilities is how they are determined by the physical structure.In this paper, I survey three ways of understanding objective probability: stochastic dynamics, humean chances, and deterministic chances (typicality). The first is the obvious way to understand the probabilities of quantum mechanics via a collapse theory such as GRW, the last is the way to understand the probabilities in the context of a deterministic theory such as Bohmian mechanics. Humean chances provide a more abstract and general account of chances locutions that are independent of dynamical considerations.     

Measurement outcomes and probability in Everettian quantum mechanics

The decision-theoretic account of probability in the Everett or many-worlds interpretation, advanced by David Deutsch and David Wallace, is shown to be circular. Talk of probability in Everett presumes the existence of a preferred basis to identify measurement outcomes for the probabilities to range over. But the existence of a preferred basis can only be established by the process of decoherence, which is itself probabilistic.     

The consistency,coherence and calibration of holistic,decomposed and recomposed judgemental probability forecasts

In this paper we make an empirical investigation of the relationship between the consistency, coherence and validity of probability judgements in a real-world forecasting context. Our results indicate that these measures of the adequacy of an individual's probability assessments are not closely related as we anticipated. Twenty-nine of our thirty-six subjects were better calibrated in point probabilities than in odds and our subjects were, in general more coherent using point probabilities than odds forecasts. Contrary to our expectations we found very little difference in forecasting response and performance between simple and compound holistic forecasts. This result is evidence against the ‘divide-and-conquer’ rationale underlying most applications of normative decision theory. In addition, our recompositions of marginal and conditional assessments into compound forecasts were no better calibrated or resolved than their holistic counterparts. These findings convey two implications for forecasting. First, untrained judgemental forecasters should use point probabilities in preference to odds. Second, judgemental forecasts of complex compound probabilities may be as well assessed holistically as they are using methods of decomposition and recomposition. In addition, our study provides a paradigm for further studies of the relationship between consistency, coherence and validity in judgemental probability forecasting.     

基于FTA和模糊集理论的设备可靠性研究

应用模糊故障树（模糊集合论和故障树相结合）分析的方法研究了CXT设备Handler模块的可靠性。以Handler失效为顶事件，建立此模块的系统故障树，并采用上行法定性分析找出该故障树的最小割集。传统故障树定量分析时需要得到各底事件的概率精确值，而实践中，由于底事件的发生概率具有随机性和模糊性，难以获得精确的概率值，为克服传统故障树这一不足，引入模糊数（通常采用对称三角模糊数）来表示底事件的发生概率，并且按照模糊逻辑门的运算法则定量计算，从而得到故障树顶事件及各中间事件的发生概率（亦为区间数），最终找出了Handler的薄弱环节并计算出Handler的系统不可靠度。     

Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions

In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian framework, our modeling approach assumes that different regimes are characterized by commonly used structural exchange rate models, with transitions across regimes being driven by a Markov process. We assume a time-varying transition probability matrix with transition probabilities depending on a measure of the monetary policy stance of the central bank at home and in the USA. We apply this model to a set of eight exchange rates against the US dollar. In a forecasting exercise, we show that model evidence varies over time, and a model approach that takes this empirical evidence seriously yields more accurate density forecasts for most currency pairs considered.     

A loose and separate certainty: Caves, Fuchs and Schack on quantum probability one

Carlton Caves, Fuchs, and Schack (2002) have recently appealed to an argument of mine (Stairs, 1983) to address a problem for their subjective Bayesian account of quantum probability. The difficulty is that on the face of it, quantum mechanical probabilities of one appear to be objective, but in that case, the Born Rule would yield a continuum of probabilities between zero and one. If so, we end up with objective probabilities strictly between zero and one. The authors claim that objective probabilities of one leads to a dilemma: give up locality or fall into contradiction. I argue that this conclusion depends on an overly strong interpretation of objectivism about quantum probabilities.     

Judging the probability that the next point in an observed time-series will be below,or above,a given value

We presented people with trended and untrended time series and asked them to estimate the probability that the next point would be below each of seven different reference values. The true probabilities that the point would be below these values were 0.01, 0.10, 0.25, 0.50, 0.75, 0.90 and 0.99. People overestimated probabilities of less than 0.50 and underestimated those of more than 0.50. Consequently, their subjective probability distributions were flatter than they should have been: people appeared to be under confident in their estimates of where the next point would lie. This bias was greater for the trended series. It was also greater in a second experiment in which people estimated the probability that the next item would be above the reference values. We discuss reasons for these effects and consider their implications for decision making.     

Quantum probability and many worlds

We discuss the meaning of probabilities in the many worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics. We start by presenting very briefly the many worlds theory, how the problem of probability arises, and some unsuccessful attempts to solve it in the past. Then we criticize a recent attempt by Deutsch to derive the quantum mechanical probabilities from the non-probabilistic parts of quantum mechanics and classical decision theory. We further argue that the Born probability does not make sense even as an additional probability rule in the many worlds theory. Our conclusion is that the many worlds theory fails to account for the probabilistic statements of standard (collapse) quantum mechanics.