Research on quantitative assessment of climate change risk at an urban scale: Review of recent progress and outlook of future direction

Cities are not only major contributors to global climate change but also stand at the forefront of climate change impact. Quantifying and assessing the risk potentially induced by climate change has great significance for cities to undertake positive climate adaptation and risk prevention. However, most of the previous studies focus on global, national or regional dimensions, only a few have attempted to examine climate change risk at an urban scale and even less in the case of a recent literature review. As a result, a quantitative assessment of climate change risk for cities remains highly challenging. To fill this gap, the article makes a critical review of the recent literature on urban-scale climate change risk assessment, and classifies them into four major categories of studies which jointly constitute a stepwise modelling chain from global climate change towards urban-scale risk assessment. On this basis, the study summarizes the updated research progresses and discusses the major challenges to be overcome for the seamless coupling of climate simulation between different scales, the reproduction of compound climate events, the incorporation of non-market and long-lasting impacts and the representation of risk transmission insides or beyond a city. Furthermore, future directions to advance quantitative assessment of urban-scale climate change risk are highlighted, with fresh insights into improving study methodology, enriching knowledge of climate change impact on city, enhancing abundance and accessibility to data, and exploring the best practice to provide city-specific climate risk service.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

“Global warming” versus “climate change”: A replication on the association between political self-identification,question wording,and environmental beliefs

Climate change is one of the greatest threats to humanity and requires immediate action. Schuldt, Konrath, and Schwarz (2011) suggested that beliefs in environmental phenomena can be influenced by the terminology used to describe it: changing question wording from global warming to climate change resulted in a 6.3 percentage point increase in belief in environmental phenomena. This association was moderated by political self-identification, with Republicans being 16.2 percentage points more likely to believe in climate change than in global warming, with Democrats showing no difference. The potential for connotative meanings to shift over time and the sociopolitical changes since the original study, potential policy and environmental campaign implications, and an expansion of these findings to other countries, motivated an attempt to replicate this important finding. This pre-registered study repeated the original procedures in the United States of America and two other countries (United Kingdom and Australia; total N = 5,717). Although question wording no longer had a significant effect on beliefs in climate change/global warming, the association of political self-identification with beliefs in environmental phenomena replicated in all three countries, with Conservatives consistently believing less in climate change/global warming than Liberals. The potential impacts of temporal and methodological differences on the discrepancies between this study's and the original's findings are discussed.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

An overview of climate change impacts on the society in China

Society could sustain the impact of climate change by adapting to the change and mitigating risks from adverse effects of increasing changes, so that it can continue maintaining its prospect and improving wellbeing. Nevertheless, climate change is more or less affecting society's functions at different scales, including both individuals and communities. In this review, we discuss the relationship between society and climate change in China from the aspects of the needs at different socioeconomic developing stages. The relationship as well as the current spatial pattern and future risks of the climate change impacts on societies are summarized. The complexity of social and climatic systems leads to the spatial heterogeneity of climate impacts and risks in China. To more effectively leverage increasing knowledge about the past, we advocate greater cross-disciplinary collaboration between climate adaption, poverty alleviation and Nature-based Solutions (Nbs). That could provide decision makers with more comprehensive train of thoughts for climate policy making.     

全球变化研究中的"科学政治化"倾向--以美国气候政策为例

在国际社会为防止、适应全球变化的努力中,会涉及到国家、地方和民族的诸多利益。全球变化研究成为与国家安全、食物供应、水资源、温室气体排放、人类健康等问题密切相关的社会问题。美国为国际全球变化研究做出了突出的贡献,但当国际气候框架与其国内经济发展出现冲突时,美国的气候政策也开始了以保障国内经济发展和企业利益的调整,作为国家支持的全球变化研究也需要针对这些调整而不断修正研究方向和关注重点,为有利于美国的政治和政策服务,表现出了明显的“科学政治化”倾向。本文分析了美国自2001年3月退出《京都议定书》以来的一系列的政策和研究支持的调整,尤其对美国的《京都议定书》替代方案《晴朗天空与全球气候变化行动》进行了深入的分析。根据这些分析,可以对国际全球变化研究与国家政治和利益的关系有一个总体的了解,为我国科研工作者和生产企业提供有益借鉴。     

Mortality effects of temperature changes in the United Kingdom

Temperature changes are known to affect the social and environmental determinants of health in various ways. Consequently, excess deaths as a result of extreme weather conditions may increase over the coming decades because of climate change. In this paper, the relationship between trends in mortality and trends in temperature change (as a proxy) is investigated using annual data and for specified (warm and cold) periods during the year in the UK. A thoughtful statistical analysis is implemented and a new stochastic, central mortality rate model is proposed. The new model encompasses the good features of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87: 659–671) model and its recent extensions, and for the very first time includes an exogenous factor which is a temperature‐related factor. The new model is shown to provide a significantly better‐fitting performance and more interpretable forecasts. An illustrative example of pricing a life insurance product is provided and discussed.     

升高CO2浓度和温度对针叶林的影响以及在川西亚高山针叶林研究中的展望

以CO2浓度和温度升高为主要特征的全球气候变化受到了世界各国科学家们的普遍关注。目前已经有大量关于森林生态系统对全球变化响应的研究报道和综述性文章,涉及分子、生理生态、种群和群落生态以及区域和全球尺度等微观和宏观领域的研究内容,因而要想对森林生态系统对全球变化的响应研究进行全面的综述是相当困难的。因此,本文只简要评述了森林生态系统对升高CO2浓度和温度响应研究中的诸如CO2浓度和温度升高对森林生长和生产力的影响、森林生态系统物种组成和多样性对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应、植被变化与全球碳循环的互动以及气候变化与森林生态系统生物地球化学循环的关系等几个热点问题。川西亚高山针叶林区为我国的第二大林区,地处高山峡谷地带,是全球变化的敏感地带。相对简单的植物群落结构、较低的物种丰富度和多样性、巨大的冷冻土壤碳库、不同演替阶段和功能的植物群落组合以及分布于林线附近的邻接效应等为研究针叶林系统对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应提供了良好的天然实验室。针叶林生产力、植物群落物种组成和多样性以及土壤碳氮过程等对升高CO2浓度和温度的响应对于预测未来气候变化下针叶林系统的生态过程具有重要意义。     

The impact of climate change on human health: Some international implications

The objective of this study is to discuss the potential impact of a global warming on various aspects of human health. Changes in heat-related mortality are estimated for four countries: the United States, Canada, the People's Republic of China and Egypt. In addition, the potential confounding impact of increased air pollution is considered. Finally, a framework to analyze two vector-borne diseases, onchocerciasis and malaria, which may spread if temperatures increase, is discussed. Our findings suggest that heat-related mortality is estimated to rise significantly in all four countries if the earth warms, with the greatest impacts in China and Egypt. The most sensitive areas are those with intense but irregular heat waves. In the United States, air pollution does not appear to impact daily mortality significantly when severe weather is present, although it seems to have a slight influence when weather conditions are not stressful.     

Ex-post and ex-ante prediction of unobserved economic time series: a case study

In several countries, some macro-economic variables are not observed frequently (e.g. quarterly) and economic authorities need estimates of these high-frequency figures to make econometric analyses or to follow closely the country's economic growth. Two problems are involved in this context. The first is to make these estimates after observing low-frequency values and some related indicators, and the second is to obtain predictions using just the observed indicators, i.e. before observing a new low-frequency figure. This paper gives a new optimal solution to the first problem, and solves the second using a recursive optimal approach. In the second situation, additionally, statistical tests are developed for detecting structural changes at current periods in the macro-economic variable involved. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines

The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness.     

Mortality effects of economic fluctuations in selected eurozone countries

Socioeconomic status is commonly conceptualized as the social standing or well‐being of an individual or society. Higher socioeconomic status has long been identified as a contributing factor for mortality improvement. This paper studies the impact of macroeconomic fluctuations (having gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy) on mortality for the nine most populous eurozone countries. Based on the statistical analysis between the time‐dependent indicator of the Lee and Carter (Journal of the American Statistical Association, 1992, 87(419), 659–671) model and GDP, and adaptation of the good features of the O'Hare and Li (Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 2012, 50, 12–25) model, a new mortality model including this additional economic‐related factor is proposed. Results for male and female from ages between 0 and 89, and similar for unisex data, are provided. This new model shows a better fitting and more plausible forecast among a significant number of eurozone countries. An in‐depth analysis of our findings is provided to give a better understanding of the relationship between mortality and GDP fluctuations.     

Climates as commodities: Jean Pierre Purry and the modelling of the best climate on Earth

The paper looks at how an early eighteenth-century climatological model of the ‘best climate’ on Earth became a platform for political, economic, and demographic action of extraordinary significance for the colonization of new commodity environments. It analyzes the science used by an early modern business adventurer to model ‘climate’ as an economic tool informing imperial governance and exploitation of local resources. Jean Pierre Purry’s construction of ‘model climate’ portrayed North Carolina’s township at Yamassee River as an ideal environment geared toward mercantilist principles of trade but also as a model community based on skilled labor and optimal climatic capital. His climatological analysis was a purposeful act of policy making based on a science of colonial expansion similar to more recent calls at economic modelling of future climate impact.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

International interdependence of business cycles in the manufacturing industry: The use of leading indicators for forecasting and analysis

This article introduces new leading indicators for fifteen industrialized countries which enable the business cycle in manufacturing to be forecast fairly reliably between 4 and 6 months ahead. These indicators are based on an improved variant of the NBER method, yielding a composite leading indicator characterized by less erratic movements and clear turning points. The indicators are used to explore the international interdependence of business cycles and to examine the degree to which this interdependence is affected by growing economic integration, as in the EC. For each of the countries studied, the various foreign economies affecting the local business climate are identified. Since the business cycles of some countries clearly lead those of others, this international interdependence can be used to further improve the predictive power of the leading indicators in the lagging countries.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.