Stochastic stability of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems with time delay by using Lyapunov function method

The asymptotic Lyapunov stability of one quasi-integrable Hamiltonian system with time-delayed feedback control is studied by using Lyapunov functions and stochastic averaging method. First, a quasi-integrable Hamiltonian system with time-delayed feedback control subjected to Gaussian white noise excitation is approximated by a quasi-integrable Hamiltonian system without time delay. Then, stochastic averaging method for quasi-integrable Hamiltonian system is used to reduce the dimension of the original syst...     

区间时变时滞离散广义系统的稳定与镇定

研究了一类区间时变时滞离散广义系统的稳定与镇定问题。利用一个新构造的Lyapunov泛函和线性矩阵不等式方法，给出了使得系统正则、因果且稳定的时滞相关型稳定性新判据，并在其基础上得到了系统状态反馈镇定控制律的一个直接的设计方法。在讨论过程中，充分考虑了系统时变时滞信息，且保留了Lyapunov泛函导数中的有用项，使得结果具有较小保守性。数值实例表明了方法的有效性和优越性。     

Compensation for time-delayed feedback bang-bang control of quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems

The stochastic averaging method for quasi-integrable Hamiltonian systems with time-delayed feedback bang-bang control is first introduced.Then,two time delay compensation methods,namely the method of changing control force amplitude (CFA) and the method of changing control delay time (CDT),are proposed.The conditions applicable to each compensation method are discussed.Finally,an example is worked out in detail to illustrate the application and effectiveness of the proposed methods and the two compensation ...     

A perturbation-incremental scheme for studying Hopf bifurcation in delayed differential systems

A new method,called perturbation-incremental scheme (PIS),is presented to investigate the periodic solution derived from Hopf bifurcation due to time delay in a system of first-order delayed differential equations.The method is summarized as three steps,namely linear analysis at critical value,perturbation and increment for continuation.The PIS can bypass and avoid the tedious calculation of the center manifold reduction (CMR) and normal form.Meanwhile,the PIS not only inherits the advantages of the method ...     

具有通信受限的网络控制系统量化反馈控制

针对一类通信受限的网络控制系统,研究量化反馈控制器及动态调度策略的联合设计问题.考虑到介质访问约束和信号量化误差的影响,将网络控制系统建模为等价的离散时间切换系统;通过Lyapunov稳定理论推导出保证系统鲁棒稳定的模式及量化依赖型充分条件,并给出了量化反馈控制器的设计方法;在此基础上,设计了基于实时状态的动态通信调度策略,实现了网络控制系统的镇定控制.最后通过仿真示例验证了所提出方法的有效性.     

Periodic and chaotic dynamics of composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate with one-to-two internal resonance

The bifurcations and chaotic dynamics of a simply supported symmetric cross-ply composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate are studied for the first time,which are simultaneously forced by the transverse,in-plane excitations and the excitation loaded by piezoelectric layers.Based on the Reddy's third-order shear deformation plate theory,the nonlinear governing equations of motion for the composite laminated piezoelectric rectangular plate are derived by using the Hamilton's principle.The Galerkin's...     

The mechanism of bursting phenomena in Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) chemical reaction with multiple time scales

The dynamics of a typical Belousov-Zhabotinsky (BZ) reaction with multiple time scales is investigated in this paper. Different forms of periodic bursting phenomena, and specially, three types of chaotic bursters with different structures can be obtained, which are in common with the behaviors observed in experiments. The bifurcations connecting the quiescent state and the repetitive spikes are presented to account for the occurrence of the NK oscillations as well as the different forms of chaotic bursters....     

基于Smith预估模糊PID复合控制器的研究

针对空调房间温度被控对象的大滞后大惯性，本文提出一种预估并联型模糊PID复合控制策略。根据偏差大小及时调整模糊和PID控制的比例，利用Smith预估器进行时间补偿控制，同时在模糊控制器上并联一个积分器以消除稳态误差。在模型匹配和失配情况下进行仿真研究，结果表明：该控制器不仅具有鲁棒性好、控制精度高以及响应速度快的特点，尤其在模型失配时具有良好的稳定性，而且对于大时滞系统是一种实用而简便的控制方法。     

月球轨道器交会对接同波束VLBI测量差分相时延实时解算

同波束VLBI技术是解决月球轨道交会对接地面高精度引导的重要手段．传统的多频点同波束VLBI实时解算算法成功解算差分相位整周模糊度的概率较低，而事后统计修正求解整周模糊度的算法存在较大的时间滞后，从而直接影响月球轨道交会对接两个航天器地面定轨、定位的精度以及实时性．在此背景下，本文研究了应用于月球交会对接条件下的同波束VLBI差分相时延实时解算算法．首先给出了多频点同波束VLBI解算差分相时延及整周模糊度的原理，根据差分相关相位整周模糊和差分相时延实时及事后解算结果，对整周模糊度产生的原因进行分析通过求解精确差分群时延值、采用匹配搜索算法以及差分相位连接条件对传统实时解算算法进行改进，提出一种新的差分相时延实时解算算法．利用SELENE同波束VLBI观测数据进行实时解算．结果表明该算法成功解算模糊度的准确度达到95．49％，相对于传统解算算法准确度提高了5．45％．     

一种基于谱相减法的声信号时延估计

利用信号增强算法，结合广义互相关时延估计原理，提出一种声信号时延估计算法。在噪声背景下先采用谱相减法从带噪信号中估计出原始声信号，提高信噪比，利用四元立体传声器阵列和广义互相关算法原理，对相关数据进行加权处理得到较高精度的时廷估计值。该算法可以有效抑制空间加性噪声，得到有效声信号准确的时延估计。实验仿真结果表明了该算法的可行性，在信噪比较低的情况下，与单一使用广义互相关函数相比，极大地提高了时延估计算法的准确程度。     

基于输出时滞方法的采样数据系统故障估计

从时滞系统角度率先研究了一类非均匀采样数据系统的故障估计问题.首先,基于输出时滞方法将采样数据系统建模成具有时变时滞输出的连续时间系统;然后,通过分析自适应诊断观测器不再适用于此类连续时滞系统的原因,提出了一种能够保证估计误差指数收敛的增广故障估计滤波器设计新方法;并进一步研究了具有噪声干扰的采样数据系统的时变故障估计问题;最后,通过对某型飞控系统的仿真实验结果验证了所提方法的有效性.     

固废制备的填充剂中NaCl对橡胶品质的影响

将碱厂白泥、造纸白泥、含油污泥等固体废弃物加工为橡胶填充剂是一种较好的资源化利用技术,但这些填充剂中往往残留有一定量的NaCl,可能对橡胶制品的性能造成一定影响.本文通过向天然橡胶中添加含有NaCl的填充剂研究了NaCl对橡胶制品性能的影响.实验表明,NaCl在橡胶加工过程中作为晶核起异相结晶作用,可提高橡胶的交联性和热稳定性;在实验的含量范围内,NaCl对填充剂粉体的分散性、硫化时间稍有影响,但橡胶交联性明显提高;硬度、拉伸强度、拉断伸长率等主要力学性能变化不大;老化后的橡胶力学性能基本不变,且部分力学性能高于对照样品.研究揭示,只要NaCl的含量控制在4%以内,基本不会对橡胶工程和橡胶制品性能产生影响;该研究成果有利于含NaCl固体废弃物资源化利用新技术的开发与应用.     

Feedback forecasting games: An overview

The range and rationales for forecasting schemes involving feedback are surveyed. Classic Delphi schemes involve an iterated exchange of information between a small group of experts in the pursuit of efficiencies arising from the ‘collective mind’. In other applications the event or state to be forecast may itself depend upon the forecast, and feedback forecasting schemes can be derived to allow for such reflexivity. Most situations of informational feedback are at least implicitly informational or predictive games, and a recognition of this character may help in understanding the possible or likely outcomes, including their social desirability. Various informational transfer devices such as real time surveys may speed up the process of feedback.     

Fold-Hopf bifurcation in a simplified four-neuron BAM (bidirectional associative memory) neural network with two delays

The bidirectional associative memory (BAM) neural network with four neurons and two delays is considered in the present paper. A linear stability analysis for the trivial equilibrium is firstly employed to provide a possible critical point at which a zero and a pair of pure imaginary eigenvalues occur in the corresponding characteristic equation. A fold-Hopf bifurcation is proved to happen at this critical point by the nonlinear analysis. The coupling strength and the delay are considered as bifurcation par...     

A predictive model of train delays on a railway line

Delay prediction is an important issue associated with train timetabling and dispatching. Based on real-world operation records, accurate forecasting of delays is of immense significance in train operation and decisions of dispatchers. In this study, we established a model that illustrates the interaction between train delays and their affecting factors via train describer records on a Dutch railway line. Based on the main factors that affect train delay and the time series trend, we determined the independent and dependent variables. A long short-term memory (LSTM) prediction model in which the actual delay time corresponded to the dependent variable was established via Python. Finally, the prediction accuracy of the random forest model and artificial neural network model was compared. The results indicated that the LSTM model outperformed the other two models.     

Predictive models for influence of primary delays using high-speed train operation records

Primary delays are the driving force behind delay propagation, and predicting the number of affected trains (NAT) and the total time of affected trains (TTAT) due to primary delay (PD) can provide reliable decision support for real-time train dispatching. In this paper, based on real operation data from 2015 to 2016 at several stations along the Wuhan–Guangzhou high-speed railway, NAT and TTAT influencing factors were determined after analyzing the PD propagation mechanism. The eXtreme Gradient BOOSTing (XGBOOST) algorithm was used to establish a NAT predictive model, and several machine learning methods were compared. The importance of different delayinfluencing factors was investigated. Then, the TTAT predictive model (using support vector regression (SVR) algorithms) was established based on the NAT predictive model. Results indicated that the XGBOOST algorithm performed well with the NAT predictive model, and SVR was the optimal model for TTAT prediction under the verification index (i.e., the ratio of the difference between the actual and predicted value was less than 1/2/3/4/5 min). Real operational data in 2018 were used to test the applicability of the NAT and TTAT models over time, and findings suggest that these models exhibit sound applicability over time based on XGBOOST and SVR, respectively.     

Statistical surveillance of cyclical processes with application to turns in business cycles

On‐line monitoring of cyclical processes is studied. An important application is early prediction of the next turn in business cycles by an alarm for a turn in a leading index. Three likelihood‐based methods for detection of a turn are compared in detail. One of the methods is based on a hidden Markov model. The two others are based on the theory of statistical surveillance. One of these is free from parametric assumptions of the curve. Evaluations are made of the effect of different specifications of the curve and the transitions. The methods are made comparable by alarm limits, which give the same median time to the first false alarm, but also other approaches for comparability are discussed. Results are given on the expected delay time to a correct alarm, the probability of detection of a turning point within a specified time, and the predictive value of an alarm. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Backward‐in‐Time Selection of the Order of Dynamic Regression Prediction Model

We investigate the optimal structure of dynamic regression models used in multivariate time series prediction and propose a scheme to form the lagged variable structure called Backward‐in‐Time Selection (BTS), which takes into account feedback and multicollinearity, often present in multivariate time series. We compare BTS to other known methods, also in conjunction with regularization techniques used for the estimation of model parameters, namely principal components, partial least squares and ridge regression estimation. The predictive efficiency of the different models is assessed by means of Monte Carlo simulations for different settings of feedback and multicollinearity. The results show that BTS has consistently good prediction performance, while other popular methods have varying and often inferior performance. The prediction performance of BTS was also found the best when tested on human electroencephalograms of an epileptic seizure, and for the prediction of returns of indices of world financial markets.Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

对毫秒延期电雷管延期元件秒量精度影响因素的研究

作为起爆器材的毫秒延期电雷管，其秒量精度的问题一直是爆破工程界关注的焦点问题，而毫秒延期电雷管的秒量精度主要取决于延期元件。通过对延期元件加工工艺及贮存过程中，秒量精度影响因素的分析和研究，找出了提高该延期元件秒量精度的工艺技术途径，为更好地生产该产品奠定基础。     

Existence of different populations of unitary evoked postsynaptic potentials at the frog neuromuscular junction]

The postsynaptic response to monoquantic evoked transmitter release (mean quantal content about 0.3) has been studied at temperatures from 10 to 23 degrees C. The delay between nerve stimulation (1 to 10 Hz) and the unitary postsynaptic potentials fluctuates by steps. The existence of preferential delay sites can always be detected (mean number 13.5 +/- 3.1). Identical delay unitary postsynaptic potentials often shows identical amplitude and identical time to peak. These results suggest that few emitting sites are preferentially activated along the nerve terminal at low level release during long lasting stimulation. The "single process" assumption used in statistical studies of transmitter release is probably oversimplified.