煤层冲击倾向性试验及数值模拟

冲击地压是一种特殊的矿山动力现象,而冲击倾向性是煤岩体发生冲击地压的内在因素和必要条件.对松树镇煤矿主采煤层进行冲击倾向性试验,对冲击能量指数、弹性能量指数和动态破坏时间三个煤层冲击能量指标进行分析,得出煤层无冲击倾向性.但对开采煤层数值模拟,得出深部煤层顶部最大主应力值、顶板下沉较大,需要实施一定的防治措施.这为该矿防治冲击地压提供了科学依据.     

Short‐term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil

This paper presents short‐term forecasting methods applied to electricity consumption in Brazil. The focus is on comparing the results obtained after using two distinct approaches: dynamic non‐linear models and econometric models. The first method, that we propose, is based on structural statistical models for multiple time series analysis and forecasting. It involves non‐observable components of locally linear trends for each individual series and a shared multiplicative seasonal component described by dynamic harmonics. The second method, adopted by the electricity power utilities in Brazil, consists of extrapolation of the past data and is based on statistical relations of simple or multiple regression type. To illustrate the proposed methodology, a numerical application is considered with real data. The data represents the monthly industrial electricity consumption in Brazil from the three main power utilities: Eletropaulo, Cemig and Light, situated at the major energy‐consuming states, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, respectively, in the Brazilian Southeast region. The chosen time period, January 1990 to September 1994, corresponds to an economically unstable period just before the beginning of the Brazilian Privatization Program. Implementation of the algorithms considered in this work was made via the statistical software S‐PLUS. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于H-J-C本构模型的掘进机截齿破岩过程的数值模拟

针对掘进机实际外负载难以获取及其载荷特性难以正确把握的现状,提出了利用接触动力学、岩石力学和有限元法等理论和方法构建在显示动力学分析程序LS-DYNA环境下基于H-J-C本构模型的截齿与岩石的接触动力学模型数值模拟平台;利用该平台对掘进机镐形截齿的横摆破岩过程进行了数值模拟,得到了截齿受到的三向阻力曲线;通过载荷特性分析,验证了所得载荷曲线的准确性,并获得了某工况下截齿载荷的主要频率结构;分析了截齿的碎岩机理,发现岩石的破碎是与截齿直接接触的岩石的拉压应力和其周边的剪切应力集中综合作用的结果.     

嵌入式Web服务器的设计与实现

随着嵌入式技术和网络技术的迅速发展，在当今的互联经济时代，为了更快更好地获取信息，越来越多的嵌入式系统被接入网络。本文设计了一种基于B／S模型的嵌入式Web服务器，用户只要拥有联网的浏览器就可从Web上监控现场设备的运行，方便可靠。该服务器支持多HTTP连接，支持动态网页，并支持串口波特率和IP地址的动态修改，有着广泛的应用前景。     

Time series forecasts and extra-model information

Often a forecaster has supplementary information (e.g. field reports or forecasts from another source) that cannot be included directly in a time series model. Especially interesting are cases where this information is given at time intervals that are different from those of the time series model forecasts. Previous authors have considered a numerical and a model-based statistical method for combining extra-model information of this type with ARIMA model forecasts. This paper extends both methods to vector ARMA model forecasts and dynamic regression (transfer function) model forecasts. It is also shown that a Lagrange multiplier numerical procedure arises as a special case of the model-based procedure. An empirical example is given.     

Variance estimation for multivariate dynamic linear models

The problem of estimating unknown observational variances in multivariate dynamic linear models is considered. Conjugate procedures are possible for univariate models and also for special very restrictive common components models but they are not generally applicable. However, for clarity of operation and in order to avoid numerical integration, it is desirable to have conjugacy or approximate conjugacy. Such an approximate procedure is proposed based upon a simple analytic approximation. It is exact for the sub-class of conjugate models and improves on a previous procedure based upon the Robust filter.     

冲击荷载作用下CRTSⅢ型板式轨道-路基系统动力特性研究

应用ABAQUS有限元软件建立CRTSⅢ型板式轨道-路基动力分析模型,计算了在落轴冲击荷载作用下CRTSⅢ型板式轨道-路基系统的动力响应,并将仿真计算结果与试验结果进行了对比,验证了模型的可靠性.在此基础上,研究了扣件刚度、路基基床弹性模量、自密实混凝土弹性模量以及长期服役状态下混凝土弹性模量的降低对轨道-路基系统动力特性的影响规律.结果表明:扣件刚度对各部件振动加速度影响较大,路基基床弹性模量对其影响较小;轨道结构在服役过程中混凝土弹性模量的降低会引起轨道板加速度有较大的增幅,应引起重视.     

Of von Willebrand factor and platelets

Hemostasis and pathological thrombus formation are dynamic processes that require multiple adhesive receptor-ligand interactions, with blood platelets at the heart of such events. Many studies have contributed to shed light on the importance of von Willebrand factor (VWF) interaction with its platelet receptors, glycoprotein (GP) Ib-IX-V and αIIbβ3 integrin, in promoting primary platelet adhesion and aggregation following vessel injury. This review will recapitulate our current knowledge on the subject from the rheological aspect to the spatio-temporal development of thrombus formation. We will also discuss the signaling events generated by VWF/GPIb-IX-V interaction, leading to platelet activation. Additionally, we will review the growing body of evidence gathered from the recent development of pathological mouse models suggesting that VWF binding to GPIb-IX-V is a promising target in arterial and venous pathological thrombosis. Finally, the pathological aspects of VWF and its impact on platelets will be addressed.     

Prediction intervals for exponential smoothing using two new classes of state space models

Three general classes of state space models are presented, using the single source of error formulation. The first class is the standard linear model with homoscedastic errors, the second retains the linear structure but incorporates a dynamic form of heteroscedasticity, and the third allows for non‐linear structure in the observation equation as well as heteroscedasticity. These three classes provide stochastic models for a wide variety of exponential smoothing methods. We use these classes to provide exact analytic (matrix) expressions for forecast error variances that can be used to construct prediction intervals one or multiple steps ahead. These formulas are reduced to non‐matrix expressions for 15 state space models that underlie the most common exponential smoothing methods. We discuss relationships between our expressions and previous suggestions for finding forecast error variances and prediction intervals for exponential smoothing methods. Simpler approximations are developed for the more complex schemes and their validity examined. The paper concludes with a numerical example using a non‐linear model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

高速铁路钢轨焊接区不平顺的动力效应及其安全限值研究

应用车辆–轨道耦合动力学理论及其仿真分析软件TTISIM,研究了钢轨焊接区低塌不平顺对轮轨动力响应的影响特征,分析了高速行车条件下典型焊接区低塌不平顺波长和幅值对轮轨动力响应的影响规律,在此基础上,提出了高速铁路钢轨焊接区不平顺幅值的安全限值.分析结果表明:钢轨焊接区不平顺会导致明显的轮轨冲击效应,且该冲击作用由短波不平顺所控制;高速行车条件下,轮轨动力响应随着焊接区不平顺波长的增大而减小,随行车速度和不平顺幅值的增大而增大,其中,轮重减载率指标受不平顺波长和幅值的影响更为显著,为钢轨焊接区不平顺作用下行车安全性的首要控制指标;高速行车条件下,钢轨焊接区不平顺幅值的安全限值随行车速度的增大而减小,随不平顺波长的增大而增大,叠合形不平顺幅值的安全限值受短波不平顺(波长小于0.2 m)波长和幅值的影响较大;在200~250 km/h行车速度等级,1 m直尺测量矢度条件下,余弦形低塌不平顺幅值的安全限值为0.82 mm,叠合形低塌不平顺在1 m长波幅值为其作业验收限值0.3 mm时,其短波不平顺幅值的最大安全限值为0.2 mm,叠合形不平顺幅值总的安全限值最大为0.5 mm;在250~350 km/h行车速度等级,1 m直尺测量矢度条件下,余弦形低塌不平顺幅值的安全限值为0.62 mm,叠合形低塌不平顺在1 m长波幅值为其作业验收限值0.2 mm时,其短波不平顺幅值的最大安全限值为0.14 mm,钢轨焊接区叠合形低塌不平顺幅值总的安全限值最大为0.34 mm.研究结果可为高速铁路钢轨顶面焊接区不平顺的养护维修管理提供理论参考.     

Seasonality in large-scale macroeconometric models

Macroeconomic indicators are typically appraised in seasonally adjusted form, and forecasts are often presented in a similar way (as annual changes, for example). Moreover, the quarterly macroeconomic models used in forecasting are commonly estimated from seasonally adjusted data. Nevertheless, these models can generate forecasts with seasonal patterns, and this paper assesses the cause and cure of this phenomenon. It is found that forecast seasonality is induced by seasonality in the various inputs: exogenous variables, residual adjustments, the dynamic specification of certain equations, and annual changes in policy variables. Series changing annually but observed quarterly are termed ‘intercalated series’, and are simple examples of periodic processes. Forecast seasonality can be removed by appropriate adjustment of all these inputs. Models containing explicit future expectations variables solved in a model-consistent manner are also considered: numerical sensitivity to the terminal quarter may result from terminal conditions that require adjustment when seasonality is present.     

基于MATLAB的空调房间温控系统的仿真研究

针对空调房间温度的非线性变化纯滞后惯性大等突出问题，建立了一个空调室温控制模型。根据这一模型提出了一种模糊Smith—PID最优控制策略，使用MATLAB对空调房间温度的模型失配时鲁棒特性、抗干扰特性、动态特性等进行仿真研究。结果表明：模糊Smith—PID控制效果均优于常规PID和传统Smith-PID控制，响应快、抗干扰性强、鲁棒性好，并能使房间温度控制在给定温度±0．1℃附近，超调几乎为零，是一种实用而简便的控制方法。     

一种基于聚类分析的数值积分新算法

通过聚类分析找出一般数值求积公式的被积函数出现数值信息波动较大的区域,自适应地采用相应的高精度公式,构造出高精度的自适应数值求积公式.数值试验结果表明,这种新数值求积算法较一般数值求积公式,能显著地减少数据存储量和计算量,提高数值求积公式的稳定性和数值积分的精度.     

混凝土材料非线性多轴动态强度准则

将广义非线性强度理论的4个材料参数转化为混凝土材料的基本强度参数,通过混凝土材料的基本强度特性,分析了4个材料参数的变化规律与取值范围.基于S准则建立了混凝土材料4个基本强度参数的率效应表达式,建立了混凝土材料的非线性多轴动态强度准则,分析了动态强度参数的率效应规律,结果表明,混凝土材料的强度特性随着应变率的提高,逐渐向金属材料的强度特性过渡,在应变率从-3~3,应变率对混凝土动态强度的影响较大,并且动强度不是随着应变率的提高无限增大的,而是存在动强度峰值.通过与3组双轴压-压和2组双轴拉-压动态加载时混凝土材料试验结果的比较,表明非线性多轴动态强度准则可较好地描述混凝土材料双轴动强度规律.在同一应变率下,可较好地描述强度的非线性特性;不同应变率下,动强度面互不相交,即应变率效应与多轴应力状态对强度规律不存在耦合影响.     

风险投资与高技术产业R＆D全要素生产率增长——基于中国数据的实证

利用1995—2011年风险投资与高技术产业R＆D的相关数据，采用DEA-Malmquist指数法、典型相关分析法和多元回归分析法等计量方法，对风险投资与高技术产业R＆D全要素生产率关系进行实证研究。结果显示：风险投资与技术进步指数、技术效率改善指数及全要素生产率指数具有很强相关性，风险投资对R＆D全要素生产率有显著的正向影响；整体上，风险投资对全要素生产率贡献程度在0．1个单位，年度风险投资额对全要素生产率的影响大于风险投资总规模；R＆D内部经费和新产品开发经费对R＆D全要素生产率具有显著的促进作用，是技术进步与创新直接推动因素。     

How probable is probable? A numerical translation of verbal probability expressions

The reported experiment took place in a professional forecasting organization accustomed to giving verbal probability assessments (‘likely’, ‘probable’, etc.). It attempts to highlight the communication problems caused by verbal probability expressions and to offer possible solutions that are compatible with the forecasters overall perspective on their jobs Experts in the organization were first asked to give a numerical translation to 30 different verbal probability expressions most of which were taken from the organization's own published political forecasts. In a second part of the experiment the experts were given 15 paragraphs selected from the organization's political publications each of which contained at least one verbal expression of probability. Subjects were again asked to give a numerical translation to each verbal probability expression The results indicate that (a) there is a high variability in the interpretation of verbal probability expressions and (b) the variability is even higher in context. Possible reasons for the context effect are discussed and practical implications are suggested.     

Efficient bayesian learning in non-linear dynamic models

This paper demonstrates the practical application of recently developed techniques of efficient numerical analysis for dynamic models. The models presented share a common basic structural foundation but nevertheless cover a very large arena of possible applications, as will be shown.     

多企业产量策略多维博弈研究

根据现实社会经济活动中多企业多维博弈现象，首先探讨多个企业关于具有需求替代性产品产量策略的静态和动态多维博弈问题，然后求出其多维均衡结果，并通过算例对比多维博弈与单独博弈的均衡结果。分析表明：在产量策略多维动态博弈中，领头厂商将选择更高的产量策略，获得比尾随厂商更多的利润，即领头厂商具有先动优势；多维博弈下的多维Nash均衡策略优于单独博弈下的Nash均衡策略。     

结构动力方程另类显式逐步积分格式研究

现有显式积分格式的稳定性与计算结果的取信度均远逊于常用的隐式积分格式,这是制约现有显式积分格式在大型结构动力分析软件以及其它相关软件中广泛应用的瓶颈.以解决这一瓶颈问题为研究目标,通过结合采用精确法和平均常加速度法的基本假定,推导建立了基于双重基本假定的另类显式积分格式,提出了相关的体系另类振动周期等新概念.基于另类振...