伴随南海季风爆发热带环流演变的合成分析

为了研究伴随南海夏季风爆发的热带环流的演变,利用40 a的NCEP逐日再分析资料,采用合成分析的方法对季风爆发前后的环流形势变化进行了讨论。合成结果中重点分析了随南海季风的爆发在对流层和平流层低层的流场都有显著变化的南亚、东南亚地区。结果表明,在对流层中印度洋赤道地区,在季风爆发前有东风扰动发展成为一对南北对称的低涡,随后北边的低涡演变成孟加拉湾低槽,低槽前的西南气流不断东扩,使西太副高东撤,南海季风爆发。低涡的演变和发展是影响南海季风爆发的重要因子之一。而高层的环流形势与低层不同,伴随季风爆发高层环流的演变则更多地体现出了全球尺度的特征。     

华北夏季降水年代际变化与东亚夏季风、大气环流异常

利用华北夏季降水资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对华北夏季降水、东亚夏季风年代际变化特征及大气环流异常进行研究,发现一些有意义的结果:华北夏季降水变化存在明显的8a、18a周期,东亚夏季风变化18a、28a周期性比较明显,二者年代际变化特征明显,但华北夏季降水变化和东亚夏季风变化的周期不完全一致.华北夏季降水量变化在60年代中期发生了突变,东亚夏季风变化在70年代中期发生了突变.华北夏季降水与东亚夏季风变化存在很好的相关关系,强夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏多,弱夏季风年,华北夏季降水一般偏少,但又不完全一致.东亚夏季风减弱是造成华北夏季降水减少的一个重要因素,但不是唯一因素,华北夏季降水减少还与环流异常密切相关.在地面上,青臧高原地区、华北地区气温下降造成华北低压系统活动减少,不利于降水.在850 hPa层上,东亚中纬度的西南季风和副热带高压南部的偏东风、西北部的西南风异常减弱,使得西南气流输送水汽很多难以到达30°N以北的地区,而副热带高压西部外围偏东南、偏南气流输送到华北地区的水汽也大量减少,水汽不足造成华北夏季降水偏少.在500 hPa高度场上,80年代欧亚遥相关型表现与50年代相反,变为欧洲( )、乌拉尔山(-)、中亚( )形势,这种环流使得乌拉尔山高压脊减弱,贝加尔湖至青藏高原高空槽变浅,纬向环流表现突出,不利于冷暖空气南北交换.同时在500 hPa气温场上,80年代,西伯利亚至青藏高原西北部的冷槽明显东移南压到蒙古至华北地区,锋区位于华北以东以南位置,使得华北地区冷暖空气交汇减少,降水也因此减少.华北夏季降水减少是由于东亚夏季风减弱和大气环流异常造成的.     

柴达木盆地夏季极端强降水特征及大气环流成因

利用柴达木盆地气象台站逐日降水资料和国际卫星云气候学计划D2资料分析了柴达木盆地夏季极端强降水、云量及云水资源的时空分布特征,结合NCEP/NCAR再分析资料对夏季极端强降水事件发生时的大气环流进行了分析.结果表明,夏季极端降水阈值和极端降水日数在柴达木盆地东部大于西部,极端降水量也明显增加.柴达木盆地各种云量的空间分布形态不一,云量上升趋势不明显.云水路径、固态云水和液态云水的空间分布形态一致,具有"南低北高"的特征,三者的线性趋势在年和四季尺度均明显上升.环流分析显示,极端强降水事件发生时,对流层上层,西风急流向北移动,柴达木盆地位于急流南侧,有异常反气旋式环流,对应高空辐散区;对流层中层,柴达木盆地位于异常偏强的槽区及槽前;对流层低层,柴达木盆地东部位势高度异常偏低,出现异常气旋式环流,对应低空辐合,这种高层辐散低层辐合的环流配置为极端强降水提供了良好的动力条件.柴达木盆地极端强降水的水汽来源为印度夏季风对热带海洋的水汽经青藏高原东侧输送;西风带对欧亚大陆的水汽输送;西北太平洋异常气旋式环流西北侧的异常偏北风的水汽输送.     

对流层垂直臭氧分布变化量对生物质燃烧响应的模拟研究

 采用区域气候模式与大气化学模式相连接的模式系统,模拟研究了对流层垂直臭氧分布变化量对东南亚生物质燃烧排放源强变化的响应程度.结果表明,源区对流层臭氧垂直积分浓度对燃烧源强变化十分敏感,下游区次之.特别是在对流层的中低层影响最显著,但对源区臭氧的贡献比下游区要大得多.在对流层中高层,源区和下游区受影响程度相当.对流层低层源区臭氧增加的时间超前下游区,超前的时间随高度的增加而减小,而在对流层中层出现滞后现象,到对流层高层臭氧最大值出现的时间相同.     

中国东北地区干旱趋势的年代际变化

选用东北地区(包括内蒙东部)26个气象站的温度和降水资料,分析了近50 a来的干旱发展趋势和年代际变化.认为:在向干旱发展的总趋势下还有明显的干湿年代际变化,温度逐年升高在干旱发展的总趋势中起主要作用,而降水的年代际变化在干旱的年代际变化中起重要作用,两者在12和25 a的低频振荡上有惊人的一致性.这种低频振荡与东亚中高纬度地区的区域西风环流指数的年代际变化相联系,它们之间呈很好的反位相关系;降水与区域经向环流指数则有很好的同位相关系.但在近50 a的时间范围内,上述各项变化特征在后半期不如前半期的关系好.这可能与全球增暖在高纬度和低纬度地区的强度不同所导致的东亚季风减弱有关.     

四川南部秋季降水变化及相应大气环流异常特征

利用1961—2014年全国756站的降水资料和美国NOAA-CIRES的20CR月平均再分析资料,研究了四川南部秋季(9～11月)降水变化及其相应的大气环流异常特征。结果表明,四川南部秋季降水具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征,其年际周期以2～4 a和准6 a为主,年代际周期以9～15 a为主。它与黄淮流域同期降水存在显著的负相关关系,与四川南部秋季降水关系密切的大气环流结构是北大西洋—俄罗斯西部—蒙古西部—东亚(NRMA)遥相关波列,NRMA遥相关波列在东亚地区激发出一个气旋性环流,与此同时,中南半岛西侧存在一个反气旋性环流,以上环流型有利于北方冷空气和来自孟加拉湾的暖湿气流在四川南部地区汇合,从而容易导致该地区降水的产生,反之亦然。     

我国春季降水的分布特征及其与环流异常的关系

利用EOF、小波分析和相关分析讨论了我国春季降水的分布特征及降水异常的环流背景,结果表明:春季降水(3～5月)主要集中在北纬30°以南的中东部地区,而北方则降水稀少,西部降水有增加的趋势,中东部降水有减少的趋势,但不是很明显.EOF1表明长江以南和长江以北的降水呈反向分布,长江以南大范围降水变化的特征时间尺度分别为2,7a和15a,且15a时间尺度变化有明显向较大时间尺度演变的趋势,EOF2表明长江中下游与华南降水呈反向分布,长江中下游大范围降水变化的特征时间尺度分别为2,9a和更大时间尺度,且9a时间尺度变化具有明显的向较小时间尺度演变的趋势.当退居在中太平洋的副高偏强,西伸,副高北侧气压梯度力加大时,有利于长江以南地区降水,当副高偏北,西伸到长江中下游上空,乌拉尔山阻高偏强时,则有利于长江中下游地区降水.     

北半球冬季准定常行星波传播的年代际变化

通过利用NCEPNCAR再分析资料对1958—2004年共46个冬季北半球大气准定常行星波传播的年代际变化进行分析，发现气候态意义下的准定常行星波沿高纬度由对流层向平流层的传播和在对流层内向低纬度的传播之间存在显著的反相振荡关系. 进一步的研究还表明，准定常行星波传播的年代际变化与北极涛动有密切的联系；北极涛动的正位相对应于在对流层有异常强的从中高纬度向低纬度对流层顶附近的波动传播，同时通过极地波导向平流层的传播明显减弱.其结果不仅说明大气内部的准定常行星波与纬向平均流相互作用可以产生年代际尺度的变化；而且提供了平流层变化影响对流层大气环流长期变化的一种动力学机制.     

Community Climate Model 3气候模式在东亚季风区产生虚假降水的一种可能原因

通过分析NCAR CCM3气候模式的15年积分结果,从形成降水的垂直运动和水汽供应条件的角度,试图揭示该模式在东亚季风区产生不合理虚假强降水的可能原因.与观测的降水分布相比,CCM3模拟的东亚季风区降水中心位置偏西,雨量偏强,其中对流降水占虚假降水中心总降水量的82%左右.进一步分析发现,对流层上层200 hPa副热带急流南侧的散度季节变化与110°E以西的虚假降水季节变化具有较好的对应关系,急流入口区附近的直接垂直环流上升支位于青藏高原东北部,同时由于急流南侧对流层上层辐散引起的抽吸作用,加强低层的垂直运动,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供上升运动条件.分析对流层低层的水汽(比湿)分布和水汽输送表明,模拟的青藏高原地区大气的水汽含量比NCEP/NCAR再分析的水汽含量高,经过高原从孟加拉湾输送到虚假降水中心地区的水汽偏强,从而为虚假的强对流降水形成提供了充足的水汽条件.因此,在改进气候模式对东亚季风区虚假降水的模拟性能时,除了对模式物理过程做改进外,在青藏高原附近地区的水汽分布和水汽输送以及对流层上层西风急流位置和强度模拟的合理性方面也需要引起足够的重视.     

中国东部四季降水量变化空间结构的研究

利用观测资料和史料所重建的中国东部(110°E以东)71站1880—2004年的四季降水量序列,通过EOF分析得到了各个季节降水量空间分布的主要形态,并且按其特点分为两类,冬春秋季为一类,夏季为一类。利用重建的1880—1950年和观测的1951—2004年的500hPa高度场资料,分析了大气环流对各季降水异常的影响。结果表明,各季的降水异常分布形态与高空环流形势有很好的对应关系,并且近百年来这种对应关系比较稳定。最后研究了各季降水量空间结构的周期变化特征,结果显示各个季节降水量空间分布形态都存在高频的年际变化和低频的年代际变化。功率谱和子波分析表明,高频集中于2~4年、5~8年,而低频则集中在15年、20~25年、60年,共同代表了中国季节降水异常变化的主要周期。     

Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The rainfall in North China during rainy season （July and August （JA）） exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A possible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall.     

Variation of the NAO and NPO associated with climate jump in the 1960s

The interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and its relationship with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960s, are discussed using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO were all increased obviously in the 1960s and the main period of the oscillations changed from 3–4 years before the 1960s to 8–15 years after the 1960s. Therefore, the climate jump in the 1960s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO.     

Atmospheric oscillations over the last millennium

The variations of global atmospheric oscillations over the last millennium, including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) highly associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the Southern Oscillation (SO) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), are studied and compared in this paper based on observations and reconstructed data. The cross correlation analysis of AAO, NAO and NPO shows that there is no significant relationship on interannual variation among them. However, the consistency on decadal variability is prominent. During A.D.1920–1940 and A.D.1980–2000, the positive (strong) phase was dominant and the negative (weak) one noticeable during A.D.1940–1980. In addition, the reconstructed atmospheric oscillations series demonstrate that the positive phase existed in the early of the last millennium for NAO and in the late of the last millennium for AAO, respectively; while it occurred in the mid-late of the last millennium for PDO and ENSO.     

Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season

Interdecadai and interannuai timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadai timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannuai timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannuai variation of North China rainfall.There is a linear relationship between the interdecadai and interannuai variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season.     

中国降水场的时空分布变化

 分析了全国160个气象观测站51a(1951-03～2002-02)的月季降水量距平场的时空分布变化规律得出:我国降水空间分布的主要类型是南北分布;统计降水量的时间尺度越大,则降水量的空间分布尺度也越大;冬季降水的空间分布尺度比夏季大;夏季降水空间分布的年际变化比冬季大;春、夏季的降水空间分布变化具有较为显著的正相关关系;春季降水空间分布具有2.4～3.0a的显著周期存在,冬季降水空间分布也具有2.3～2.8a的显著周期存在.     

An integrative estimation model of summer rainfall-band patterns in China

Three variation indices are defined to objectively and quantitatively represent fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns in summers in China for the period from 1951 to 2005, and the variation features of these indices are analyzed on both of interdecadal and interannual scales. A new method is proposed to establish an integrative estimation model based on the analysis of rainfall-band indices, and the model is applied to air, ocean factors to estimate their roles on variations of three rainfall-band patterns on different time-scales. The tests of estimation effects show that the fluctuations of three rainfall-band patterns are composed of variations on both significant inter-decadal and interannual scales, of which the interannual variation is mainly influenced by the Elnino/Lanina events, the East Asia monsoon and the ridge locations of subtropical high pressures in western pacific, while the interdecadal variation is mainly controlled by the Pacific decadal oscillation and interdecadal oscillations of the Arctic oscillation, ENSO, Nino3 sea surface temperature and summer monsoon. The estimated results from the integrative estimation model of rainfall-band patterns suggest that the way of estimation first according to each time scale of both the interdecadal and interannual scales, then estimating with an integration, which is proposed in this paper, has an obvious improvement on that without separation of time scales.     

Tropospheric biennial oscillation of the western Pacific subtropical high and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies

There is the significant period of tropospheric biennial Oscillation(TBO)over East Asian monsoon region at the interannual timescales,which has the important influences on East China climate.Based on a set of reconstructed indices which describes the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)objectively,this paper focuses on the TBO component of WPSH,one of the key members of the East Asian Monsoon system,and its relationships with the tropical SST and atmospheric circulation anomalies.It is found that(1)As an important interannual component of WPSH,the time series of TBO has the obvious transition in the late1970s,and the variability of the WPSH’s TBO component is more significant after the late 1970s.(2)The time-lag correlations between the WPSH’s TBO and the tropical sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in several key ocean regions are more significant and have longer correlation duration than the raw data.The response of the western boundary index to ENSO is earlier than the intensity index,and the time-lag correlations of them are up to maximum when lagging ENSO by 3–5 months and 5–6months,respectively.(3)In the course of the WPSH’s TBO cycle,the occurrence of the El Ni o-like anomaly in the tropical central-eastern Pacific in winter is always coupled with the weak East Asian winter monsoon,with the most significant enhancing phase of the WPSH’TBO.In contrast,the La Ni a-like anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific in winter is coupled with the strong East Asian winter monsoon,with the most weakening phase of the WPSH’s TBO.(4)The distribution of the tropical SST and atmospheric circulations anomalies are asymmetric in the TBO cycle.The WPSH’s TBO is more significant in the period of the developing El Ni o-like anomaly in central-eastern Pacific than in the period of the developing La Ni a-like anomaly.Therefore,during the period of developing El Ni o-like anomaly,more attention should be paid to the interannual component of TBO signal in the short-term climate prediction.     

Differences between dynamics factors for interannual and decadal variations of rainfall over the Yangtze River valley during flood seasons

The prediction of rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, especially, during flood seasons is the main means for scientists in China working on and the understanding of rainfall-associated processes is a crucial component of this effort. It can be derived f…     

绍兴市近48年降水演变特征统计分析

选取绍兴国家气象观测站1961年1月至2009年2月逐月降水量作为降水分析基本资料,利用一元线性回归、小波变换和Mann-Kendall检验等统计学方法对绍兴降水季节变化和年际变化的特征进行了综合分析,分析了不同时间尺度下降水序列变化的周期和突变点,并根据主周期对未来降水变化趋势进行了预估.结果发现,绍兴市近48 a各个季节和年降水都存在多时间尺度特征,大尺度的周期变化中嵌套有小尺度的周期变化.春季降水以3～4 a年周期为主.并有准3 a周期向准4 a周期转变的趋势;夏季降水主要存在准4 a和准14 a周期变化;秋季降水主要存在准2 a和准12 a周期变化;冬季降水主要存在准4 a和准16 a周期变化:年降水主要存在准2 a和准4 a年际周期变化和准13 a年代际周期变化.绍兴春季和冬季降水突变不明显;夏季和秋季突变明显,突变点分别出现在1973年和1963年,而年降水突变不明显,不存在明显的突变期.夏季降水变化趋势和年降水趋势基本一致:夏季降水和年降水在时域上分布有很大的相似性,都具有准4 a周期变化.并全时域存在;夏季降水突变影响到全年降水的突变.根据绍兴夏季降水和年降水的主周期推测.2009年后的5～6 a绍兴年降水将相对偏多.