Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures

The active fault traces on which earthquakes occur are generally not continuous, and are commonly composed of segments that are separated by discontinuities that appear as steps in map-view. Stress concentrations resulting from slip at such discontinuities may slow or stop rupture propagation and hence play a controlling role in limiting the length of earthquake rupture. Here I examine the mapped surface rupture traces of 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes with rupture lengths ranging between 10 and 420 km. I show that about two-thirds of the endpoints of strike-slip earthquake ruptures are associated with fault steps or the termini of active fault traces, and that there exists a limiting dimension of fault step (3-4 km) above which earthquake ruptures do not propagate and below which rupture propagation ceases only about 40 per cent of the time. The results are of practical importance to seismic hazard analysis where effort is spent attempting to place limits on the probable length of future earthquakes on mapped active faults. Physical insight to the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process is further gained with the observation that the limiting dimension appears to be largely independent of the earthquake rupture length. It follows that the magnitude of stress changes and the volume affected by those stress changes at the driving edge of laterally propagating ruptures are largely similar and invariable during the rupture process regardless of the distance an event has propagated or will propagate.     

活动断层分段研究

地震发生在活动断层上,而断层活动不一定都发震,为进行地震危险性分析,确定未来可能发生地震的地段和强度。因此,把活动断层分成地震破裂段进行研究,分析断层活动在时间上、空间上的不均匀性,了解破裂段特征和分段标志,确定破坏性地震发震的构造条件是极为重要的。     

Earthquake slip on oceanic transform faults

Oceanic transform faults are one of the main types of plate boundary, but the manner in which they slip remains poorly understood. Early studies suggested that relatively slow earthquake rupture might be common; moreover, it has been reported that very slow slip precedes some oceanic transform earthquakes, including the 1994 Romanche earthquake. The presence of such detectable precursors would have obvious implications for earthquake prediction. Here we model broadband seismograms of body waves to obtain well-resolved depths and rupture mechanisms for 14 earthquakes on the Romanche and Chain transform faults in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. We found that earthquakes on the longer Romanche transform are systematically deeper than those on the neighbouring Chain transform. These depths indicate that the maximum depth of brittle failure is at a temperature of approximately 600 degrees C in oceanic lithosphere. We find that the body waves from the Romanche 1994 earthquake can be well modelled with relatively deep slip on a single fault, and we use the mechanism and depth of this earthquake to recalculate its source spectrum. The previously reported slow precursor can be explained as an artefact of uncertainties in the assumed model parameters.     

Seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes as observed by temporally continuous gravity variations in China

In the last decade and a half, a number of earthquakes of magnitude 4–5 have occurred in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan-Zhangjiakou (BTTZ) region. On the basis of the analysis of the temporally continuous gravity variation data principally from the Baijiatuan (BJTN) semi-permanent gravity base station, a general picture of gravity variation related to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes has emerged. As gravity variation is generally observed on the earth’s surface, the predominant influence is that of the near-surface groundwater. The subsurface fluids are distributed throughout all depths in the crust and respond to the seismogenic processes of earthquakes as well. The influence of the subsurface fluid on gravity variation is, therefore, of equal importance. The fluids, which include the near-surface groundwater and the subsurface fluids distributed throughout all depths in the crust, play a more important role in the gravity variations in terms of the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes than previously realized. The abundance of accumulated data shows that the dilatancy instability (IPE) model seems not applicable at least to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes in the BTTZ region. In order to reflect the physical reality, the earlier proposed combined dilatancy model requires modification. The seismogenic area in the BTTZ region may be modelled as a large pre-stressed volume of a fluid-filled poroelastic medium, including not only the pre-stressed volume surrounding the impending rupture zone but also the volume containing the rupture of the fault zone itself. The pre-stressed volume outside the impending rupture zone is under a state of relatively small change of the pre-existing regional tectonic stress, while the volume containing the impending rupture zone is an induced region of very high local stress concentration, and/or pore over-pressure. The calculated gravity variations based on the modified combined dilatancy model (MCDM) with the known physical parameters of the region resemble the observed residual gravity variations. Apparently the residual gravity variations, in addition to responding to the deep-seated seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes, predominantly respond to the near-surface groundwater, and the subsurface fluids, which themselves also respond to the seismogenesis and occurrence of earthquakes. On the basis of comparison between the calculated MCDM gravity variations and the observed residual gravity variations, the change of the regional tectonic stress field for the earthquakes of magnitude 4–5 in the BTTZ region could be approximately estimated to be in the neighbourhood of 5%–7%. It is apparent that simultaneously monitoring the temporally continuous variations of the near-surface groundwater, subsurface fluids, and gravity coupled with modelling would provide vital information on the history and evolution of the seismogenic processes about 10 months to 1 year prior to the occurrence of an earthquake of magnitude 4–5 and tens of years prior to that of an earthquake of magnitude 7–8 such as the Haicheng earthquake in 1975 and the Tangshan earthquake in 1976 in the BTTZ region. These earthquakes of magnitude 4–5, which so far have occurred in the BTTZ region, may well be the precursory events to a larger earthquake. L-DEO, Columbia University, Contribution No. 5613.     

Nonlinear dynamics, granular media and dynamic earthquake triggering

The 1992 magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake triggered an exceptional number of additional earthquakes within California and as far north as Yellowstone and Montana. Since this observation, other large earthquakes have been shown to induce dynamic triggering at remote distances--for example, after the 1999 magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine and the 2002 magnitude 7.9 Denali earthquakes--and in the near-field as aftershocks. The physical origin of dynamic triggering, however, remains one of the least understood aspects of earthquake nucleation. The dynamic strain amplitudes from a large earthquake are exceedingly small once the waves have propagated more than several fault radii. For example, a strain wave amplitude of 10(-6) and wavelength 1 m corresponds to a displacement amplitude of about 10(-7) m. Here we show that the dynamic, elastic-nonlinear behaviour of fault gouge perturbed by a seismic wave may trigger earthquakes, even with such small strains. We base our hypothesis on recent laboratory dynamic experiments conducted in granular media, a fault gouge surrogate. From these we infer that, if the fault is weak, seismic waves cause the fault core modulus to decrease abruptly and weaken further. If the fault is already near failure, this process could therefore induce fault slip.     

The M S7.1 Yushu earthquake surface rupture and large historical earthquakes on the Garzê-Yushu Fault

As revealed by field investigations, the co-seismic surface rupture zone of the 2010 M_S7.1 Yushu earthquake, Qinghai is a char-acteristic sinistral strike-slip feature consisting of three distinct sinistral primary ruptures, with an overall strike of 310°–320° and a total length of 31 km. In addition, an approximately 2-km-long en-echelon tensile fissure zone was found east of Longbao Town; if this site is taken as the north end of the rupture zone, then the rupture had a total length of ~51 km. The surface rupture zone is composed of a series of fissures arranged in an en-echelon or alternating relationship between compressive bulges and tensile fissures, with a measured maximum horizontal displacement of 1.8 m. The surface rupture zone extends along the mapped Garzê-Yushu Fault, which implicates it as the seismogenic fault for this earthquake. Historically, a few earthquakes with a magnitude of about 7 have occurred along the fault, and additionally traces of paleoearthquakes are evident that characterize the short-period recurrence interval of large earthquakes here. Similar to the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, the Yushu earthquake is also due to the stress accumulation and release on the block boundaries resulting from the eastward expansion of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, in contrast with the Wenchuan earthquake, the Yushu earthquake had a sinistral strike-slip mechanism resulting from the uneven eastward extrusion of the Baryan Har and Sichuan-Yunnan fault blocks.     

Extent, duration and speed of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake imaged by the Hi-Net array

The disastrous Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 was one of the largest ever recorded. The damage potential of such earthquakes depends on the extent and magnitude of fault slip. The first reliable moment magnitude estimate of 9.0 was obtained several hours after the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, but more recent, longer-period, normal-mode analyses have indicated that it had a moment magnitude of 9.3, about 2.5 times larger. Here we introduce a method for directly imaging earthquake rupture that uses the first-arriving compressional wave and is potentially able to produce detailed images within 30 min of rupture initiation. We used the Hi-Net seismic array in Japan as an antenna to map the progression of slip by monitoring the direction of high-frequency radiation. We find that the rupture spread over the entire 1,300-km-long aftershock zone by propagating northward at roughly 2.8 km s(-1) for approximately 8 minutes. Comparisons with the aftershock areas of other great earthquakes indicate that the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake did indeed have a moment magnitude of approximately 9.3. Its rupture, in both duration and extent, is the longest ever recorded.     

Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.     

Damage to the shallow Landers fault from the nearby Hector Mine earthquake

Crustal faults have long been identified as sites where localized sliding motion occurs during earthquakes, which allows for the relative motion between adjacent crustal blocks. Although there is a growing awareness that we must understand the evolution of fault systems on many timescales to relate present-day crustal stresses and fault motions to geological structures formed in the past, fault-zone damage and healing have been documented quantitatively in only a few cases. We have been monitoring the healing of damage on the shallow Johnson Valley fault after its rupture in the 1992 magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake, and here we report that this healing was interrupted in 1999 by the magnitude-7.1 Hector Mine earthquake rupture, which occurred 20-30 km away. The Hector Mine earthquake both strongly shook and permanently strained the Johnson Valley fault, adding damage discernible as a temporary reversal of the healing process. The fault has since resumed the trend of strength recovery that it showed after the Landers earthquake. These observations lead us to speculate that fault damage caused by strong seismic waves may help to explain earthquake clustering and seismicity triggering by shaking, and may be involved in friction reduction during faulting.     

Fracture surface energy of the Punchbowl fault, San Andreas system

Fracture energy is a form of latent heat required to create an earthquake rupture surface and is related to parameters governing rupture propagation and processes of slip weakening. Fracture energy has been estimated from seismological and experimental rock deformation data, yet its magnitude, mechanisms of rupture surface formation and processes leading to slip weakening are not well defined. Here we quantify structural observations of the Punchbowl fault, a large-displacement exhumed fault in the San Andreas fault system, and show that the energy required to create the fracture surface area in the fault is about 300 times greater than seismological estimates would predict for a single large earthquake. If fracture energy is attributed entirely to the production of fracture surfaces, then all of the fracture surface area in the Punchbowl fault could have been produced by earthquake displacements totalling <1 km. But this would only account for a small fraction of the total energy budget, and therefore additional processes probably contributed to slip weakening during earthquake rupture.     

Seismology: speed and size of the Sumatra earthquake

Our seismological results reveal that Indonesia's devastating Sumatra-Andaman earthquake on 26 December 2004 was 2.5 times larger than initial reports suggested--second only to the 1960 Chilean earthquake in recorded magnitude. They indicate that it slowly released its energy by slip along a 1,200-km fault, generating a long rupture that contributed to the subsequent tsunami. Now that the entire rupture zone has slipped, the strain accumulated from the subduction of the Indian plate beneath the Burma microplate has been released, and there is no immediate danger of a similar tsunami being generated on this part of the plate boundary, although large earthquakes on segments to the south still present a threat.     

巨形大震与全球变化

所指的巨形大震是指发震断层极长、断层面积甚大和矩震级Mw为9级和9级以上的地震。这种大震的发生不但与北半球和中国的气候降温有一定相关性,而且与中国的特大洪灾也有一定关系。2004年印尼巨形Mw9.0级大震已给我们提出了警告。     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.     

Seismology: dynamic triggering of earthquakes

After an earthquake, numerous smaller shocks are triggered over distances comparable to the dimensions of the mainshock fault rupture, although they are rare at larger distances. Here we analyse the scaling of dynamic deformations (the stresses and strains associated with seismic waves) with distance from, and magnitude of, their triggering earthquake, and show that they can cause further earthquakes at any distance if their amplitude exceeds several microstrain, regardless of their frequency content. These triggering requirements are remarkably similar to those measured in the laboratory for inducing dynamic elastic nonlinear behaviour, which suggests that the underlying physics is similar.     

震级与破裂尺度及位错量关系的讨论

目的探讨现有的一些震级与地表破裂长度及水平位错量间经验关系式的合理性与代表性。方法基于断裂力学理论,通过对各类裂纹开裂过程中应变能释放量与裂纹尺寸、水平位错量间相互关系的分析,讨论前人建立的一些关于震级与地表破裂长度及位错量间的经验关系。结果震级与破裂带长度或水平错动量之间的统计关系式在理论上具有合理性;以青藏高原强震事件参数为基本统计数据,构建了震级、破裂长度与垂直位错的统计关系式,并利用所得关系式用中卫712级地震为例验算,与实际结果相近。结论可以将震级与破裂带长度、错动量等参数通过统计方法建立起某种关系式,但所选用参数以及参数之间的基本关系应当符合断裂力学的一些基本理论及关系原则。     

Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the near-field, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude Mw = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.     

A great earthquake doublet and seismic stress transfer cycle in the central Kuril islands

Temporal variations of the frictional resistance on subduction-zone plate boundary faults associated with the stick-slip cycle of large interplate earthquakes are thought to modulate the stress regime and earthquake activity within the subducting oceanic plate. Here we report on two great earthquakes that occurred near the Kuril islands, which shed light on this process and demonstrate the enhanced seismic hazard accompanying triggered faulting. On 15 November 2006, an event of moment magnitude 8.3 ruptured the shallow-dipping plate boundary along which the Pacific plate descends beneath the central Kuril arc. The thrust ruptured a seismic gap that previously had uncertain seismogenic potential, although the earlier occurrence of outer-rise compressional events had suggested the presence of frictional resistance. Within minutes of this large underthrusting event, intraplate extensional earthquakes commenced in the outer rise region seaward of the Kuril trench, and on 13 January 2007, an event of moment magnitude 8.1 ruptured a normal fault extending through the upper portion of the Pacific plate, producing one of the largest recorded shallow extensional earthquakes. This energetic earthquake sequence demonstrates the stress transfer process within the subducting lithosphere, and the distinct rupture characteristics of these great earthquakes illuminate differences in seismogenic properties and seismic hazard of such interplate and intraplate faults.     

Assessment of time-dependent seismic hazards on segments of active fault, and its problems

Assessment of time dependent seismic hazards on segments of active fault is one of the important techniques of long term earthquake forecast for specific locations. It is based on the data from quantitatively seismo geologic investigation in active faults and expresses seismic hazards of a fault segment with both the earthquake occurrence probability, which increases as the elapsed time increases, and the magnitude predicted. Through summing up and analyzing main technical steps in research of the recent decade, some defects in the current theory and model of this technique are pointed out. For instance, the probabilistic models for recurrence interval are based solely on the quasi periodic behavior of earthquake recurrence, ignoring behavior's diversity that possibly exists. Variability of repeated rupture dimensions in various cycles is considered inadequately in fault segmentation research, etc. It is most important for improving the reliability of the result of seismic hazard assessment to reveal actual earthquake recurrence behavior and its generalities, and to update relevant models for evaluating probabilistic earthquake hazard based on the behavior and generalities.     

Earthquakes as beacons of stress change

Aftershocks occurring on faults in the far-field of a large earthquake rupture can generally be accounted for by changes in static stress on these faults caused by the rupture. This implies that faults interact, and that the timing of an earthquake can be affected by previous nearby ruptures. Here we explore the potential of small earthquakes to act as 'beacons' for the mechanical state of the crust. We investigate the static-stress changes resulting from the 1992 Landers earthquake in southern California which occurred in an area of high seismic activity stemming from many faults. We first gauge the response of the regional seismicity to the Landers event with a new technique, and then apply the same method to the inverse problem of determining the slip distribution on the main rupture from the seismicity. Assuming justifiable parameters, we derive credible matches to slip profiles obtained directly from the Landers mainshock. Our results provide a way to monitor mechanical conditions in the upper crust, and to investigate processes leading to fault failure.     

A scaling law for slow earthquakes

Recently, a series of unusual earthquake phenomena have been discovered, including deep episodic tremor, low-frequency earthquakes, very-low-frequency earthquakes, slow slip events and silent earthquakes. Each of these has been demonstrated to arise from shear slip, just as do regular earthquakes, but with longer characteristic durations and radiating much less seismic energy. Here we show that these slow events follow a simple, unified scaling relationship that clearly differentiates their behaviour from that of regular earthquakes. We find that their seismic moment is proportional to the characteristic duration and their moment rate function is constant, with a spectral high-frequency decay of f(-1). This scaling and spectral behaviour demonstrates that they can be thought of as different manifestations of the same phenomena and that they comprise a new earthquake category. The observed scale dependence of rupture velocity for these events can be explained by either a constant low-stress drop model or a diffusional constant-slip model. This new scaling law unifies a diverse class of slow seismic events and may lead to a better understanding of the plate subduction process and large earthquake generation.